SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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The BCS still lives- for now. In its 15 years, 30 teams have played for the national championship. 18 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 11 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. 5 had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only three times have we had a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 9-0 (368-95) writer’s and coach’s: #1 BCS: #1
11/16 at Mississippi State 4-5 (268-245)
11/23 Chattanooga 8-2 (302-179)
11/30 at Auburn 9-1 (386-204) writer’s: #7 coach’s: #9, BCS: #7
Comment: The rivalry game with Auburn now is the biggest hurdle the rest of the way. Auburn has had a strong comeback year. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton this time and when they are both good the Tide usually wins the game. Waiting for them in the SEC title game will be either Missouri, who has had a similar season to Auburn but has to face Ole Miss and Johnny Manziel, or a resurgent South Carolina who beat Mizzou and has actually completed their SEC season with two games to go. ‘Bama would be a solid favorite over either of them.
FLORIDA STATE 9-0 (468-108) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #2
11/16 Syracuse 5-4 (221-206)
11/23 Idaho 1-9 (190-457)
11/30 at Florida 4-5 (185-171)
Comment: The Noles have the most impressive resume so far but they won’t have a real chance to add to it the rest of the way. The highest ranked team in the other ACC division is still Miami who is #23-24 after two straight losses, one by 27 points to FSU. It’s a race between them and Ohio State to see who can role up the biggest scores. This is a bad time to play such a team.
OHIO STATE 9-0 (434-143) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #3
11/16 at Illinois 3-6 (267-288)
11/23 Indiana 4-5 (387-340)
11/30 at Michigan 6-3 (316-223)
Comment: The Buckeyes are in the same boat as the Noles but ranked behind them. This line-up won’t necessarily push them into #2. Michigan State is leading the other division at 8-1 but curiously is only rated #14-16. Could BCS#4 Stanford catch either one of them, despite the loss? I doubt it. They play USC, Cal and Notre Dame the rest of the way. Big names but none of them are ranked this year. Arizona State is the likely opponent in the Pac 12 title game. They are ranked between #19-22.
BAYLOR 8-0 (488-143) writers and coaches: #4, BCS: #5
11/16 Texas Tech 7-3 (378-270) at Arlington
11/23 Oklahoma State 8-1 (366-177) writers: #12, coaches #10, BCS: #12
11/30 at TCU 4-6 (232-229)
12/7 Texas 7-2 (310-222) writer’s: 23, coach’s and BCS: #24
Comment: Then there’s Baylor, still ranked behind Stanford in the BCS. They have the most impressive remaining schedule but no conference title game. That’s a double edged sword- one less good team to beat but one less threat to their undefeated record.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 9-0 (368-95) writer’s and coach’s: #1 BCS: #1
11/16 at Mississippi State 4-5 (268-245)
11/23 Chattanooga 8-2 (302-179)
11/30 at Auburn 9-1 (386-204) writer’s: #7 coach’s: #9, BCS: #7
Comment: The rivalry game with Auburn now is the biggest hurdle the rest of the way. Auburn has had a strong comeback year. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton this time and when they are both good the Tide usually wins the game. Waiting for them in the SEC title game will be either Missouri, who has had a similar season to Auburn but has to face Ole Miss and Johnny Manziel, or a resurgent South Carolina who beat Mizzou and has actually completed their SEC season with two games to go. ‘Bama would be a solid favorite over either of them.
FLORIDA STATE 9-0 (468-108) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #2
11/16 Syracuse 5-4 (221-206)
11/23 Idaho 1-9 (190-457)
11/30 at Florida 4-5 (185-171)
Comment: The Noles have the most impressive resume so far but they won’t have a real chance to add to it the rest of the way. The highest ranked team in the other ACC division is still Miami who is #23-24 after two straight losses, one by 27 points to FSU. It’s a race between them and Ohio State to see who can role up the biggest scores. This is a bad time to play such a team.
OHIO STATE 9-0 (434-143) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #3
11/16 at Illinois 3-6 (267-288)
11/23 Indiana 4-5 (387-340)
11/30 at Michigan 6-3 (316-223)
Comment: The Buckeyes are in the same boat as the Noles but ranked behind them. This line-up won’t necessarily push them into #2. Michigan State is leading the other division at 8-1 but curiously is only rated #14-16. Could BCS#4 Stanford catch either one of them, despite the loss? I doubt it. They play USC, Cal and Notre Dame the rest of the way. Big names but none of them are ranked this year. Arizona State is the likely opponent in the Pac 12 title game. They are ranked between #19-22.
BAYLOR 8-0 (488-143) writers and coaches: #4, BCS: #5
11/16 Texas Tech 7-3 (378-270) at Arlington
11/23 Oklahoma State 8-1 (366-177) writers: #12, coaches #10, BCS: #12
11/30 at TCU 4-6 (232-229)
12/7 Texas 7-2 (310-222) writer’s: 23, coach’s and BCS: #24
Comment: Then there’s Baylor, still ranked behind Stanford in the BCS. They have the most impressive remaining schedule but no conference title game. That’s a double edged sword- one less good team to beat but one less threat to their undefeated record.
