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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 1198233, member: 289"] It’s October and so I will once again chart the future challenges of the undefeated in major college football. Once November comes I’ll include the one-loss teams. We now have a four team playoff, (maybe someday we’ll move to 8 with auto bids for the Power Five champions), so more of these teams will continue to have a chance until the very end of the regular season. I’ll limit my coverage to ranked teams. (For fun I’ll also keep track of the teams eligible for the Tidy Bowl, which decides the worst team in the country, although I’ll not spend as much time on them. I think I’ll do a four team playoff for that, too, this year.) A note on rankings: the first is the ranking of the College Football Playoff Committee, then the AP (writer’s) poll, the USA Today (coach’s) poll and finally the ESPN power ranking. We are down to one last undefeated national championship contender, (Marshall will be in the Pesci Bowl- see below) FLORIDA STATE 10-0 (371-228) #3 -1 -1-2. Versus ranked teams: 47 points. Sat 11/22 Boston College (6-4) Sat 11/29 Florida (5-4) Comment: I’ve changed my mind on the Noles. Because they were playing close games this year and not blowing people away, I’ve assumed that they were going to lose at some point during the regular season. But it’s obvious this year is about meeting challenges, not about dominating from the opening kickoff, and that is impressive in itself. They’ve got another rivalry game coming up with Florida, (who might want to win one for their coach- why didn’t they do that before he was fired?) and Boston College is pretty good but I’m now going to be surprised if they lose any of those games. But I’ll still be surprised to see them repeat as national champion. Their dominant team won by the skin of their teeth in the championship game. I see this team coming up short if they have to take on an SEC champion again. The one-loss teams: ALABAMA 9-1 (343-139) #1-2-2-1 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 120 points. Sat 11/22 West Carolina (7-4 in FCS) Sat 11/29 #14-16-17-18 Auburn (7-3) Comment: The Tide never seems to be out of the national championship race. They again found a way to survive vs. LSU and have now knocked off former #1 Mississippi State. Auburn and maybe an SEC title game await. But a 12-1 finish would not be a surprise. OREGON 9-1 (460-250) #2-3-3-3 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 91 points. Sat 11/22 Colorado (2-8) Sat 11/29 at Oregon State (5-5) Comment: The Ducks aren’t invincible but I think they have had their loss for the year, (at least the regular season). I’ll be surprised if they aren’t in the Final Four. The Quack attack should make things fun, even if their record against the SEC isn’t good. MISSISSIPPI STATE 9-1 (377-202) #4 in all polls. Versus ranked teams: 115 points Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt (3-7) Sat 11/29 at #8-8-8-9 Mississippi (8-2) Comment The Bulldogs finally lost but losing by 5 at Alabama doesn’t hurt their reputation that much. It might actually help them because now, unless slumping Auburn can find another miracle vs. the Tide. They won’t have to risk their record in an SEC title game. If they can get by their own rivalry game against Ole Miss, they should remain in the top 4. TEXAS CHRISTIAN 9-1 (459-231) #5-5-5-7 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 135 points BYE Thurs 11/27 at Texas (6-5) Sat 12/6 Iowa State (2-7) Comment: The Horned Frogs should roll to 11-1 but Baylor might do the same and that 58-61 game may prove to be very big, both in the conference and the national scene. What if TCU winds up in the Final Four and Baylor doesn’t? (Or, what if neither do.) There’s no title game in the Big 12 anymore. That’s a double-edged sword. It’s one less risk to their won-loss record but a lost opportunity to add to their reputation by beating another good team. But maybe they won’t need to beat anyone else. They may need some help , most likely from Ole Miss. BAYLOR 8-1 (451-189) #7-6-6-5 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 65 points. Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State (5-5) Sat 11/29 Texas Tech (3-7) Sat 12/6 #12-12-11-12 Kansas State (7-2) Comments: They will continue to light up scoreboards but they still have to beat K-State. Then it’s wait and hope. Either they or TCU would be a glaring omission from the tournament but it could certainly happen OHIO STATE 9-1 (445-220) #6-7-7-5 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 38 points Sat 11/22 Indiana (3-7) Sat 11/29 Michigan (5-5) Comment: The Buckeyes have moved up the standings rapidly but their last two opponents aren’t going to help them. The Big Ten title game would be against #16-14-15-13 Wisconsin, a team formidable enough to beat them but not to help them. We are now down to one unbeaten team, (sorry, BCS fans), and 6 one loss teams. Fans of an eight team playoff, (like me) will be rooting for there to be enough one loss teams that the combined total of them and the undefeated teams will exceed 5. Here are the total undefeated and one loss teams, year by year for the last decade: 2004 4-3, 2005 2-4, 2006 2-4, 2007 1-2, 2008 2-7, 2009 5-1, 2010 3-6, 2011 1-5, 2012 2-5 and 2013 1-9, (yes, 9). That’s an average of 2- 5. There’s been more than four every year but one and in that season, we’d have had to dip into the two loss teams to fill out a top four. And there’d be a lot more than one of them. The notion that offense has become more important than defense is supported by this stat: the seven teams noted above have given up an average of 21 points per game but they are a combined 63-6. The best scoring defense is Alabama’s, which gives up 14 points per game. The days of single digit defenses are gone. [/QUOTE]

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