SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In its 15 years, 30 teams have played for the national championship. 18 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 11 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. 5 had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only three times have we had a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 11-0 (437-102) writer’s and coach’s: #1 BCS: #1
11/30 at Auburn 10-1 (429-242) writer’s: #4 coach’s: #5, BCS: #4
Comment: The rivalry game with Auburn now is the only regular season hurdle left. Auburn has had a strong comeback year. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton this time and their defense is questionable. When they are both good the Tide usually wins this game. Waiting for them in the SEC title game will be either Missouri, who has had a similar season to Auburn but has to face Johnny Manziel, (a prospect that didn’t look quite so daunting after LSU handled him Saturday), or a resurgent South Carolina who beat Mizzou and has actually completed their SEC season with two games to go. ‘Bama would be a solid favorite over either of them.
FLORIDA STATE 11-0 (607-125) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #2
11/30 at Florida 4-7 (219-216)
Comment: The Noles face a very down Florida team that might be dangerous at home, especially after being stung by Georgia Southern. But it’s hard to see the Gators doing anything with State. The ever-shifting recruiting battle in Florida seems to have shifted northward.
OHIO STATE 11-0 (536-192) writer’s #4, coach’s and BCS: #3
11/30 at Michigan 7-4 (367-263)
Comment: The Buckeyes are in the same boat as the Noles- lack of quality late-season opposition- but ranked behind them. Michigan State is leading the other division at 10-1 but curiously is only rated #11. The Buckeyes figure to be the odd men out this year- one more reason to move to a 4 team playoff. Or maybe the Spartans will knock them off and the BCS apologists will say “See, the BCS is all we needed!”
Meanwhile, the race for – or to stay out of- the Ty-D-Bowl – is a cavalry charge.
Connecticut (1-9) got off the snide by overcoming a 0-21 halftime deficit to beat Temple, who dropped to 1-10. The bad old days are back in Philly. The Owls finish with3-7 Memphis. The Huskies still have games against 5-5 Rutgers and Memphis.
Hawaii lost an agonizing 56-59 overtime game to Wyoming to fall to 0-11. They gained 624 yards but surrendered 792. The game featured ten scoring drives of less than 2 minutes in duration. The Warriors have now lost 5 games by 7 points or less, two in overtime. They may be the highest scoring bad team in history. They have one more game with 3-7 Army at home. Go Warriors!
Georgia State, (0-11) also suffered a heartbreaker, losing to 7-4 Arkansas State, 33-35 after having a 17-7 halftime lead. Imagine being the worst team in the Sun Belt? The Panthers out-gained the Red Wolves 432-290 but four turnovers doomed them. They have one more shot at home vs. 4-6 South Alabama.
Two once-proud programs, Miami of Ohio and Southern Mississippi, couldn’t even come close, the Red Hawks getting crushed 7-44 by Buffalo, (Buffalo?!?) and the Golden Eagles to Middle Tennessee State, (I believe that’s the only “Middle” school in the NCAA), by 21-42. The Eagles are at UAB, (2-9) in an effort to avoid their second straight 0-12 season after being 11-2 two years ago. The Hawks have a tougher assignment at 9-2 Ball State.
Among the teams that had one loss, Iowa State pulled out of the competition with a 34-0 victory over Kansas. Western Michigan stayed at 1-10 with a bye. They play at 11-0 Northern Illinois on Tuesday. Good luck with that.
The others all lost. One of them was close. Purdue got nipped by Illinois, 16-20 after having a 14-7 lead in the first half. They will have a shot at 4-7 Indiana. The others: Massachusetts 0 Central Michigan 37, Florida International 10 Marshall 48, New Mexico State 10 Florida Atlantic 55, California 13 Stanford 63, (“The Big Game”) and, of course, Idaho 14 Florida State 80. (Hey! All we got was a field goal!) Cal is done, (in more ways than one) at 1-11. Their one win was over Portland State. The two schools we always get mixed up, Florida International, (1-10: the beat Southern Mississippi by a point), and Florida Atlantic mix it up at FAU. Idaho plays Ty-D-Bowl perennial New Mexico State in a knock-off game, (both are 1-10). UMASS, whose only win was by a touchdown over Miami, plays at 6-5 Ohio U. FCS never looked so good.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 11-0 (437-102) writer’s and coach’s: #1 BCS: #1
11/30 at Auburn 10-1 (429-242) writer’s: #4 coach’s: #5, BCS: #4
Comment: The rivalry game with Auburn now is the only regular season hurdle left. Auburn has had a strong comeback year. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton this time and their defense is questionable. When they are both good the Tide usually wins this game. Waiting for them in the SEC title game will be either Missouri, who has had a similar season to Auburn but has to face Johnny Manziel, (a prospect that didn’t look quite so daunting after LSU handled him Saturday), or a resurgent South Carolina who beat Mizzou and has actually completed their SEC season with two games to go. ‘Bama would be a solid favorite over either of them.
FLORIDA STATE 11-0 (607-125) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #2
11/30 at Florida 4-7 (219-216)
Comment: The Noles face a very down Florida team that might be dangerous at home, especially after being stung by Georgia Southern. But it’s hard to see the Gators doing anything with State. The ever-shifting recruiting battle in Florida seems to have shifted northward.
OHIO STATE 11-0 (536-192) writer’s #4, coach’s and BCS: #3
11/30 at Michigan 7-4 (367-263)
Comment: The Buckeyes are in the same boat as the Noles- lack of quality late-season opposition- but ranked behind them. Michigan State is leading the other division at 10-1 but curiously is only rated #11. The Buckeyes figure to be the odd men out this year- one more reason to move to a 4 team playoff. Or maybe the Spartans will knock them off and the BCS apologists will say “See, the BCS is all we needed!”
Meanwhile, the race for – or to stay out of- the Ty-D-Bowl – is a cavalry charge.
Connecticut (1-9) got off the snide by overcoming a 0-21 halftime deficit to beat Temple, who dropped to 1-10. The bad old days are back in Philly. The Owls finish with3-7 Memphis. The Huskies still have games against 5-5 Rutgers and Memphis.
Hawaii lost an agonizing 56-59 overtime game to Wyoming to fall to 0-11. They gained 624 yards but surrendered 792. The game featured ten scoring drives of less than 2 minutes in duration. The Warriors have now lost 5 games by 7 points or less, two in overtime. They may be the highest scoring bad team in history. They have one more game with 3-7 Army at home. Go Warriors!
Georgia State, (0-11) also suffered a heartbreaker, losing to 7-4 Arkansas State, 33-35 after having a 17-7 halftime lead. Imagine being the worst team in the Sun Belt? The Panthers out-gained the Red Wolves 432-290 but four turnovers doomed them. They have one more shot at home vs. 4-6 South Alabama.
Two once-proud programs, Miami of Ohio and Southern Mississippi, couldn’t even come close, the Red Hawks getting crushed 7-44 by Buffalo, (Buffalo?!?) and the Golden Eagles to Middle Tennessee State, (I believe that’s the only “Middle” school in the NCAA), by 21-42. The Eagles are at UAB, (2-9) in an effort to avoid their second straight 0-12 season after being 11-2 two years ago. The Hawks have a tougher assignment at 9-2 Ball State.
Among the teams that had one loss, Iowa State pulled out of the competition with a 34-0 victory over Kansas. Western Michigan stayed at 1-10 with a bye. They play at 11-0 Northern Illinois on Tuesday. Good luck with that.
The others all lost. One of them was close. Purdue got nipped by Illinois, 16-20 after having a 14-7 lead in the first half. They will have a shot at 4-7 Indiana. The others: Massachusetts 0 Central Michigan 37, Florida International 10 Marshall 48, New Mexico State 10 Florida Atlantic 55, California 13 Stanford 63, (“The Big Game”) and, of course, Idaho 14 Florida State 80. (Hey! All we got was a field goal!) Cal is done, (in more ways than one) at 1-11. Their one win was over Portland State. The two schools we always get mixed up, Florida International, (1-10: the beat Southern Mississippi by a point), and Florida Atlantic mix it up at FAU. Idaho plays Ty-D-Bowl perennial New Mexico State in a knock-off game, (both are 1-10). UMASS, whose only win was by a touchdown over Miami, plays at 6-5 Ohio U. FCS never looked so good.
