SWC75
Bored Historian
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It’s October and so I will once again chart the future challenges of the undefeated in major college football. Once November comes I’ll include the one-loss teams. We now have a four team playoff, (maybe someday we’ll move to 8 with auto bids for the Power Five champions), so more of these teams will continue to have a chance until the very end of the regular season. I’ll limit my coverage to ranked teams. (For fun I’ll also keep track of the teams eligible for the Tidy Bowl, which decides the worst team in the country, although I’ll not spend as much time on them. I think I’ll do a four team playoff for that, too, this year.)
A note on rankings: the first is the ranking of the College Football Playoff Committee, then the AP (writer’s) poll, the USA Today (coach’s) poll and finally the ESPN power ranking.
We are down to one last undefeated national championship contender, (Marshall will be in the Pesci Bowl- see below)
FLORIDA STATE 11-0 (391-245) #3 -1 -2-3. Versus ranked teams: 47 points.
Sat 11/29 Florida (6-4)
Comment: I’ve changed my mind on the Noles. Because they were playing close games this year and not blowing people away, I’ve assumed that they were going to lose at some point during the regular season. But it’s obvious this year is about meeting challenges, not about dominating from the opening kickoff, and that is impressive in itself. They’ve got another rivalry game coming up with Florida, (who might want to win one for their coach- why didn’t they do that before he was fired?), but I’m now going to be surprised if they lose any of those games. But I’ll still be surprised to see them repeat as national champion. Their dominant team won by the skin of their teeth in the championship game. I see this team coming up short if they have to take on an SEC champion again.
The one-loss teams:
ALABAMA 10-1 (391-153) #1-2-1-1 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 120 points.
Sat 11/29 #15-15-16-16 Auburn (8-3)
Comment: The Tide never seems to be out of the national championship race. They again found a way to survive vs. LSU and have now knocked off former #1 Mississippi State. Auburn and maybe an SEC title game await. But a 12-1 finish would not be a surprise.
OREGON 10-1 (504-260) #2-3-3-2 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 91 points.
Sat 11/29 at Oregon State (5-6)
Comment: The Ducks aren’t invincible but I think they have had their loss for the year, (at least the regular season). UCLA, (who has beaten both of the Arizona schools) has been coming on and will be a formidable opponent. Still, I’d love to see them in the Final Four. The Quack attack should make things fun, even if their record against the SEC isn’t good.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 10-1 (428-202) #4 in all polls. Versus ranked teams: 115 points
Sat 11/29 at #19-18-19-20 Mississippi (8-3)
Comment The Bulldogs finally lost but losing by 5 at Alabama doesn’t hurt their reputation that much. It might actually help them because now, unless slumping Auburn can find another miracle vs. the Tide. They won’t have to risk their record in an SEC title game. If they can get by their own rivalry game against Ole Miss, they should remain in the top 4.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 9-1 (459-231) #5-6-5-7 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 135 points
Thurs 11/27 at Texas (6-5)
Sat 12/6 Iowa State (2-8)
Comment: The Horned Frogs should roll to 11-1 but Baylor might do the same and that 58-61 game may prove to be very big, both in the conference and the national scene. What if TCU winds up in the Final Four and Baylor doesn’t? (Or, what if neither do?) There’s no title game in the Big 12 anymore. That’s a double-edged sword. It’s one less risk to their won-loss record but a lost opportunity to add to their reputation by beating another good team. But maybe they won’t need to beat anyone else. They may need some help, most likely from Ole Miss.
BAYLOR 9-1 (500-210) #7-5-6-6 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 65 points.
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech (4-7)
Sat 12/6 #12-11-11-11 Kansas State (8-2)
Comments: They will continue to light up scoreboards but they still have to beat K-State. Then it’s wait and hope. Either they or TCU would be a glaring omission form this tournament but it could happen.
OHIO STATE 10-1 (487-227) #6-7-7-5 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 38 points
Sat 11/29 Michigan (5-6)
Comment: The Buckeyes have moved up the standings rapidly but their last two opponents aren’t going to help them. The Big Ten title game would be against #16-14-15-13 Wisconsin, a team formidable enough to beat them but not to help them.
We are now down to one unbeaten team, (sorry, BCS fans), and 6 one loss teams. Fans of an eight team playoff, (like me) will be rooting for there to be enough one loss teams that the combined total of them and the undefeated teams will exceed 5. Since 1973, (when the small college playoffs began a major college playoff could have been initiated), there have been an average of 2 undefeated teams each year 5 team that won every game but one, (some of them had ties). The total of such teams was four or less only 5 times in 41 years. There have been 88 teams recognized as national champions since 1936 by the writer’s poll, the coach’s pool or the BCS. 84 of them have won all their games or all their games but one, so that can stand as the definition of a national championship contender and we will have more than four such teams 88% of the time.
The notion that offense has become more important than defense is supported by this stat: the seven teams noted above have given up an average of 20 points per game but they are a combined 63-6. The best scoring defense is Alabama’s, which gives up 14 points per game. The days of single digit defenses are gone.
THE PESCI BOWL
I decided to inaugurate a third tier of championships. Why not have the top mid majors, (the best teams not in the “power five” conferences), play off? They aren’t going to make the Final Four and they aren’t in FCS, (which, as 1AA, was originally intended for teams like this). What shall we call it? Somehow, into my mind flashed the image of Joe Pesci, who always plays those vertically challenged but feisty guys. Joe could entertain at halftime with his funny stories.
There is one unbeaten mid-major:
MARSHALL 11-0 (494-181) #24-19-20-22 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Friday 11/28 Western Kentucky (6-5)
Comment: The Thundering Herd have stampeded through of their schedule as the best “mid major” in the game. They are a cinch for the Pesci Bowl playoffs. They have no chance for the national championship, unlike their days in 1AA. At least they finally made the committee’s top 25.
And there is only a single one loss mid-major:
COLORADO STATE 10-1 (407-254) #UR-21-21-24 unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Fri 11/28 at Air Force (8-3)
Comment: The Rams will travel to travel to Colorado Springs 10-1. They have their best team since the Sonny Lubick days. But the committee doesn’t know they are there yet.
That means we’ll have to go to the two loss teams to fill out a mid-major Final Four:
BOISE STATE 9-2 (440-312) 23-25-25-UR. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/29 Utah State (9-3)
Comments: They haven’t made much noise the last couple of seasons but these guys are still around. They aren’t as good as they were and they haven’t beaten anybody good but they are still winning football games. Unlike CSU, the committee did find the Broncos.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 9-2 (356-269) Unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points.
Fri 11/28 at Western Michigan (8-3)
Comments: What the heck kind of schedule is THAT? Not a single weekend game? The Huskies have been one of those Pesci-feisty mid-majors and should be able to handle it.
Overall: Marshall is a cinch and the Air Force-Colorado State winner has the inside track on another bid. Boise still has some credibility left, probably more than NIU. But all three of the two loss teams have difficult games, which means we could have to dip into the three loss teams.
THE Ty-De-Bowl
This is a four team playoff to determine who is the worst team in the country, The losers of the semi-finals move on to the “Ty-De-Bowl ”, where the Ty-De-Bowl guy entertains at halftime with his ukulele.
There’s only one winless team in all of FBS:
SOUTHERN METHODIST 0-10 (90-441)
Fri 11/28 Houston (6-4)
Sat 12/6 at Connecticut (2-8)
Comment: the Mustangs are the one truly terrible team in major college football. They are what the Ty-De-Bowl is all about.
The one-win teams:
GEORGIA STATE 1-10 (231-466)
Sat 11/29 Texas State (5-5)
Comment: The Sun Belt is an entire conference of teams that obviously have no business being in Division 1. How clever to put them all in the same conference so they can play each other and maintain the illusion. The Panthers won their opener by a single point over Abilene Christian, (an FCS team) and have crapped out ever since. It’s not going to change against Clemson.
IDAHO 1-9 (247-378)
Sat 11/29 at Appalachian State (4-5)
Comments: The Vandals are not really that bad. They’ve lost games by 5, 7 and a couple my 12 points. They seemed a cut above your classic Ty-De-Bowl team. I thought playing Troy would keep them out of this year’s classic but they managed to lose that one, too, 17-34, so maybe they do belong. Yes, they are playing only 11 games, mercifully.
KENT STATE 1-9 (152-295)
Wed 11/19 at Buffalo (4-6)
Tue 11/25 Akron (4-6)
Comment: Another bizarre MAC schedule. Yeah, they get on national TV- but who’s watching? It must drive the coaches crazy to prepare teams for Tuesday and Wednesday games. These kids get beat up and have to be in class the next day.
Overall: These will be the four teams in the first every Ty-De-Bowl playoffs unless one of them can win somewhere. That will bring the two win teams into ‘contention’: Colorado, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Iowa State, Miami of Ohio, New Mexico State, Tulsa and UNLV and whoever won among the above teams. Point differential will be used to sort those teams out.
A note on rankings: the first is the ranking of the College Football Playoff Committee, then the AP (writer’s) poll, the USA Today (coach’s) poll and finally the ESPN power ranking.
We are down to one last undefeated national championship contender, (Marshall will be in the Pesci Bowl- see below)
FLORIDA STATE 11-0 (391-245) #3 -1 -2-3. Versus ranked teams: 47 points.
Sat 11/29 Florida (6-4)
Comment: I’ve changed my mind on the Noles. Because they were playing close games this year and not blowing people away, I’ve assumed that they were going to lose at some point during the regular season. But it’s obvious this year is about meeting challenges, not about dominating from the opening kickoff, and that is impressive in itself. They’ve got another rivalry game coming up with Florida, (who might want to win one for their coach- why didn’t they do that before he was fired?), but I’m now going to be surprised if they lose any of those games. But I’ll still be surprised to see them repeat as national champion. Their dominant team won by the skin of their teeth in the championship game. I see this team coming up short if they have to take on an SEC champion again.
The one-loss teams:
ALABAMA 10-1 (391-153) #1-2-1-1 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 120 points.
Sat 11/29 #15-15-16-16 Auburn (8-3)
Comment: The Tide never seems to be out of the national championship race. They again found a way to survive vs. LSU and have now knocked off former #1 Mississippi State. Auburn and maybe an SEC title game await. But a 12-1 finish would not be a surprise.
OREGON 10-1 (504-260) #2-3-3-2 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 91 points.
Sat 11/29 at Oregon State (5-6)
Comment: The Ducks aren’t invincible but I think they have had their loss for the year, (at least the regular season). UCLA, (who has beaten both of the Arizona schools) has been coming on and will be a formidable opponent. Still, I’d love to see them in the Final Four. The Quack attack should make things fun, even if their record against the SEC isn’t good.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 10-1 (428-202) #4 in all polls. Versus ranked teams: 115 points
Sat 11/29 at #19-18-19-20 Mississippi (8-3)
Comment The Bulldogs finally lost but losing by 5 at Alabama doesn’t hurt their reputation that much. It might actually help them because now, unless slumping Auburn can find another miracle vs. the Tide. They won’t have to risk their record in an SEC title game. If they can get by their own rivalry game against Ole Miss, they should remain in the top 4.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 9-1 (459-231) #5-6-5-7 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 135 points
Thurs 11/27 at Texas (6-5)
Sat 12/6 Iowa State (2-8)
Comment: The Horned Frogs should roll to 11-1 but Baylor might do the same and that 58-61 game may prove to be very big, both in the conference and the national scene. What if TCU winds up in the Final Four and Baylor doesn’t? (Or, what if neither do?) There’s no title game in the Big 12 anymore. That’s a double-edged sword. It’s one less risk to their won-loss record but a lost opportunity to add to their reputation by beating another good team. But maybe they won’t need to beat anyone else. They may need some help, most likely from Ole Miss.
BAYLOR 9-1 (500-210) #7-5-6-6 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 65 points.
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech (4-7)
Sat 12/6 #12-11-11-11 Kansas State (8-2)
Comments: They will continue to light up scoreboards but they still have to beat K-State. Then it’s wait and hope. Either they or TCU would be a glaring omission form this tournament but it could happen.
OHIO STATE 10-1 (487-227) #6-7-7-5 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 38 points
Sat 11/29 Michigan (5-6)
Comment: The Buckeyes have moved up the standings rapidly but their last two opponents aren’t going to help them. The Big Ten title game would be against #16-14-15-13 Wisconsin, a team formidable enough to beat them but not to help them.
We are now down to one unbeaten team, (sorry, BCS fans), and 6 one loss teams. Fans of an eight team playoff, (like me) will be rooting for there to be enough one loss teams that the combined total of them and the undefeated teams will exceed 5. Since 1973, (when the small college playoffs began a major college playoff could have been initiated), there have been an average of 2 undefeated teams each year 5 team that won every game but one, (some of them had ties). The total of such teams was four or less only 5 times in 41 years. There have been 88 teams recognized as national champions since 1936 by the writer’s poll, the coach’s pool or the BCS. 84 of them have won all their games or all their games but one, so that can stand as the definition of a national championship contender and we will have more than four such teams 88% of the time.
The notion that offense has become more important than defense is supported by this stat: the seven teams noted above have given up an average of 20 points per game but they are a combined 63-6. The best scoring defense is Alabama’s, which gives up 14 points per game. The days of single digit defenses are gone.
THE PESCI BOWL
I decided to inaugurate a third tier of championships. Why not have the top mid majors, (the best teams not in the “power five” conferences), play off? They aren’t going to make the Final Four and they aren’t in FCS, (which, as 1AA, was originally intended for teams like this). What shall we call it? Somehow, into my mind flashed the image of Joe Pesci, who always plays those vertically challenged but feisty guys. Joe could entertain at halftime with his funny stories.
There is one unbeaten mid-major:
MARSHALL 11-0 (494-181) #24-19-20-22 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Friday 11/28 Western Kentucky (6-5)
Comment: The Thundering Herd have stampeded through of their schedule as the best “mid major” in the game. They are a cinch for the Pesci Bowl playoffs. They have no chance for the national championship, unlike their days in 1AA. At least they finally made the committee’s top 25.
And there is only a single one loss mid-major:
COLORADO STATE 10-1 (407-254) #UR-21-21-24 unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Fri 11/28 at Air Force (8-3)
Comment: The Rams will travel to travel to Colorado Springs 10-1. They have their best team since the Sonny Lubick days. But the committee doesn’t know they are there yet.
That means we’ll have to go to the two loss teams to fill out a mid-major Final Four:
BOISE STATE 9-2 (440-312) 23-25-25-UR. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/29 Utah State (9-3)
Comments: They haven’t made much noise the last couple of seasons but these guys are still around. They aren’t as good as they were and they haven’t beaten anybody good but they are still winning football games. Unlike CSU, the committee did find the Broncos.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 9-2 (356-269) Unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points.
Fri 11/28 at Western Michigan (8-3)
Comments: What the heck kind of schedule is THAT? Not a single weekend game? The Huskies have been one of those Pesci-feisty mid-majors and should be able to handle it.
Overall: Marshall is a cinch and the Air Force-Colorado State winner has the inside track on another bid. Boise still has some credibility left, probably more than NIU. But all three of the two loss teams have difficult games, which means we could have to dip into the three loss teams.
THE Ty-De-Bowl
This is a four team playoff to determine who is the worst team in the country, The losers of the semi-finals move on to the “Ty-De-Bowl ”, where the Ty-De-Bowl guy entertains at halftime with his ukulele.
There’s only one winless team in all of FBS:
SOUTHERN METHODIST 0-10 (90-441)
Fri 11/28 Houston (6-4)
Sat 12/6 at Connecticut (2-8)
Comment: the Mustangs are the one truly terrible team in major college football. They are what the Ty-De-Bowl is all about.
The one-win teams:
GEORGIA STATE 1-10 (231-466)
Sat 11/29 Texas State (5-5)
Comment: The Sun Belt is an entire conference of teams that obviously have no business being in Division 1. How clever to put them all in the same conference so they can play each other and maintain the illusion. The Panthers won their opener by a single point over Abilene Christian, (an FCS team) and have crapped out ever since. It’s not going to change against Clemson.
IDAHO 1-9 (247-378)
Sat 11/29 at Appalachian State (4-5)
Comments: The Vandals are not really that bad. They’ve lost games by 5, 7 and a couple my 12 points. They seemed a cut above your classic Ty-De-Bowl team. I thought playing Troy would keep them out of this year’s classic but they managed to lose that one, too, 17-34, so maybe they do belong. Yes, they are playing only 11 games, mercifully.
KENT STATE 1-9 (152-295)
Wed 11/19 at Buffalo (4-6)
Tue 11/25 Akron (4-6)
Comment: Another bizarre MAC schedule. Yeah, they get on national TV- but who’s watching? It must drive the coaches crazy to prepare teams for Tuesday and Wednesday games. These kids get beat up and have to be in class the next day.
Overall: These will be the four teams in the first every Ty-De-Bowl playoffs unless one of them can win somewhere. That will bring the two win teams into ‘contention’: Colorado, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Iowa State, Miami of Ohio, New Mexico State, Tulsa and UNLV and whoever won among the above teams. Point differential will be used to sort those teams out.