SWC75
Bored Historian
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It’s time I got going with my annual fall series on undefeated teams in contention for the very real four team playoff for the national championship and the fictional Pesci Bowl and Ty-Dee Bowl. The latter two are my inventions. The national championship playoff will likely again be between Power Five level teams, (Notre Dame included). The Pesci Bowl is named after the vertically challenged but feisty actor Joe Pesci and is a single game between the two best non-Power Five conference teams. The Ty-dee bowl, named after a toilet cleaning product, is a battle between the two worst FBS teams in the country.
I’ll start with the undefeated, (and for the Ty-dee Bowl, winless) teams and when there are no longer enough of them to fill out the above fields, I’ll include the one loss, (or one win), teams.
National Playoff Contenders
ALABAMA 13-0 (623-193) #1 in the playoff committee’s, the writer’s and coaches’ poll (?/1/1) against ranked teams (ART): +141 points
Comments: Alabama may seem invincible but they’ve been ‘vinced’ in every season of this decade. The last time they ran the table to the national title was Saban’s first there in 2009. They’ve twice won all their regular season games but lost in the SEC title game on the “kick six” to Auburn in 2013 and lost to Clemson in the 2016 title game. Their rematch with Georgia was as epic as last year’s game a 26-23 OT win for the national championship. And they could conceivably meet again in the playoff.
CLEMSON 13-0 (590-178) ranked 2/2/2 ART: +73
Comments: Clemson got the job done and ran the table in a weak conference.
NOTRE DAME 12-0 (405-207) ranked 3/3/3 ART: +130
Comments: They have will be no conference title game so that will be the Irish record when the decisions are made. It’s really a question of where they will be ranked and who they will play, not if they will be in the playoff. They could even be #1 if Bama or Clemson slip up.
The one-loss teams:
OKLAHOMA 12-1 (643-421) ranked ?/4/4 ART: +44
Comments: They avenged their only loss against Texas, which puts them in a strong position. They aren’t undefeated but beat the team that had beaten them, which is the next best thing. They are Gene Tunney or Lennox Lewis vs. the three undefeated teams being Rocky Marciano. But the Big 12 is hurt by the perception they don’t play defense and we still tend to believe that really good teams do.
OHIO STATE 12-1 (565-334) ranked ?/5/5 ART: +140
Comments: The Buckeyes have had a roller coaster season for a 12-1 team. They appear to have righted the ship after the Purdue disaster and the close call against Maryland. I think it hurt them that they didn’t get another shot at Purdue in the Big Ten title game as Oklahoma got a second shot vs. Texas.
And don’t forget:
GEORGIA 11-2 (509-241) ranked ?/6/6 ART: +126
Comments: The Bulldogs had a 28-14 lead and missed a chip-shot field goal that would have made it 31-28. If they’d hit that, Kirby Smart would likely not have taken the gamble to fake that punt that set the Tide up at midfield, (he probably shouldn’t anyway). Do they deserve another chance over the one-loss teams?
The only other two loss power conference team is Michigan but I think can agree that they took themselves out of it when they got crushed by the Buckeyes.
I got my wish that we have 6 pegs to put into 4 holes which will hopefully bring us a bit closer to the day when we will have an 8 team playoff. I think the committee will prefer a new mix of teams in the playoff rather than setting up another shot for Georgia. That leaves it to Oklahoma and Ohio State. The Buckeyes actually have the better resume (+140 ART vs. +44) despite some shaky performances. Is the Big 10 better than the Big 12? Beats me. The fact that the Sooners erased their lone loss impresses me. The committee already had them ranked ahead of the Buckeyes and I didn’t see anything yesterday that would change that. They beat a #14 Texas team by 12, +24 ART) while Ohio State beat a #21 ranked team by 21 points (+26 ART).
My prediction: Oklahoma will play Alabama and Notre Dame will play Clemson.
ALABAMA 13-0 (623-193) (?/1/1) (ART): +141 vs. OKLAHOMA 12-1 (643-421) ranked ?/4/4 ART: +44
And
CLEMSON 13-0 (590-178) ranked 2/2/2 ART: +73 vs. NOTRE DAME 12-0 (405-207) ranked 3/3/3 ART: +130
Pesci Bowl Contenders
CENTRAL FLORIDA 12-0 (530-255) ranked ?/7/7 ART: +27
Comments: The Knights have passed all tests for two years, winning 25 straight games, the last two without their star quarterback. They overcame a 17 point halftime deficit to win the ACC title over Memphis by 15. They are what those who favor an 8 team playoff have in mind when they say there should be auto bids for the power conference champions and the best mid-major. The Golden Knights are perfect again but there’s no way they could get into the 4 team playoff. But can still be in the mythical Pesci Bowl.
Every other non-power conference team, (I’m counting Notre Dame as an ACC team here) has at least two losses so the other team in the Pesci Bowl will come from this pool of 2 loss teams:
APPALACHIAN STATE 10-2 (440-188) unranked ART +9
Comments: State has dominated most of its opponents and almost beat Penn State at Penn State but they haven’t been able to crack the Top 25 and three of the 2 loss teams they are competing with are in it.
ARMY 9-2 (339-206) ranked ?/22/25 ART +14
12/8 vs. Navy 3-9 (315-419) unranked ART +4
Comment: Army isn’t done yet. The question is where will they be when they are done? Navy dominated this series for years but suddenly army has the upper hand. However there have been many upsets in the past. If the Cadets get past the Middies their ranking will put them right in the middle of the battle for the fictional Pesci Bowl.
CINCINNATI 10-2 (419-193) unranked ART -10
Comment: Cincinnati is probably better than most of these teams but they got crushed by Central Florida, are unranked and have no one else to play until the actual bowl games so unless everybody else gets knocked off, they won’t be in the Pesci Bowl.
FRESNO STATE 11-2 (454-178) ranked ?/19/21 ART +7
Comment: The Bulldogs are a very strong team and will have a very strong case for the Pesci Bowl Not that they have avenged their previous loss to Boise State on the bronco’s home field.
UTAH STATE 10-2 (566-276) ranked ?/UR/23 ART: +2
Comments: The Aggies were a top mid-major in the 60’s and 70’s, (a combined 132-75-4). Then they declined sharply, (from 1980-2010 they were 125-222-2). In this decade they had a revival under coaches Gary Anderson and Matt Wells, going 37-17 from 2011-14. They’ve fallen back again since then (15-23 from 2015-17) but are having a strong year this year due to a very productive offense that’s averaging 49 points per game. Their only loss prior to Boise State was 31-38 at Michigan State in which the Spartans, down 30-31, scored with 2 minutes left to win it. But they are not going to win their conference and won’t get in over the team that does.
Obviously one team in the Pesci Bowl will be UCF. Looking at the others, Army, Fresno State and Utah State are all ranked. Fresno State has the highest ranking of those teams. By point differential they rank: Utah State +290, Fresno State +276, Cincinnati +266, App State +252, Army +133. I think the strongest of the lower 5 conferences are the AC and the Mountain West. I would rank the Sun Belt last. Fresno won the MWC. Utah State, as strong as they were, were beaten out for their Mountain divisional title by Boise State who then lost the title game to Fresno. So my choice for the Pesci Bowl is:
CENTRAL FLORIDA 12-0 (530-255) ranked ?/7/7 ART: +27
vs. FRESNO STATE 11-2 (454-178) ranked ?/19/21 ART +7
Since teams not in the Power Five conference, (except Notre dame) have no chance to get into the 4 team playoff, (a team with a 25 game winning streak couldn’t crack it), unless we expand to 8 with an auto big for the best non-power conference team, I’d like to see the non-power conference team join the FCS schools in that division, which is where most of them came from. They could still play power conference teams but they’d have a national championship they could win. I think Central Florida-North Dakota State would be a heck of a game.
Ty-Dee Bowl Contenders (none, of course, are ranked)
TEXAS-EL PASO 1-11 (212-393) ART: none
Comments: UTEP is so bad they lost to New Mexico State. Both used to be good and exciting teams back in the 60’s but since 1970, they have been the two worst programs in the country, (save for Buffalo, who didn’t even have a team most of that time): I-A Winning Percentage 1970-2017
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 1-11 (180-328) ART: -6
Comments: Again, couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys, (and yes, they’ve got the same coach).
CONNECTICUT 1-11 (266-605) ART: -86
Comment: Another team and coach I’m not sad to see down here. The Huskies have the worst defense ever, setting records for yards, (7,409: 617 per game) and points (605: 50).
RUTGERS 1-11 (162-377) ART: -41
Comment: And what SU fan’s heart doesn’t warm up when he looks at Rutgers record? Professor Dowling likes it, too: Why Can't Rutgers Ever Win?
SAN JOSE STATE 1-11 (255-439) ART: -7
Comments: The Spartans were not Spartan this year.
These team’s seasons have ended so it’s time to make a choice. It’s tough to choose between lousy teams so I’ll just use the numbers: the 1-11 teams that got outscored by the most will be the Ty-Dee Bowl teams:
Connecticut -399
Rutgers -215
San Jose State -185
Texas-El Paso -181
Central Michigan -185
Thus we have a dream Ty-Dee bowl match-up between:
CONNECTICUT 1-11 (266-605) ART: -86 and RUTGERS 1-11 (162-377) ART: -41
Enjoy thinking about that!
I’ll start with the undefeated, (and for the Ty-dee Bowl, winless) teams and when there are no longer enough of them to fill out the above fields, I’ll include the one loss, (or one win), teams.
National Playoff Contenders
ALABAMA 13-0 (623-193) #1 in the playoff committee’s, the writer’s and coaches’ poll (?/1/1) against ranked teams (ART): +141 points
Comments: Alabama may seem invincible but they’ve been ‘vinced’ in every season of this decade. The last time they ran the table to the national title was Saban’s first there in 2009. They’ve twice won all their regular season games but lost in the SEC title game on the “kick six” to Auburn in 2013 and lost to Clemson in the 2016 title game. Their rematch with Georgia was as epic as last year’s game a 26-23 OT win for the national championship. And they could conceivably meet again in the playoff.
CLEMSON 13-0 (590-178) ranked 2/2/2 ART: +73
Comments: Clemson got the job done and ran the table in a weak conference.
NOTRE DAME 12-0 (405-207) ranked 3/3/3 ART: +130
Comments: They have will be no conference title game so that will be the Irish record when the decisions are made. It’s really a question of where they will be ranked and who they will play, not if they will be in the playoff. They could even be #1 if Bama or Clemson slip up.
The one-loss teams:
OKLAHOMA 12-1 (643-421) ranked ?/4/4 ART: +44
Comments: They avenged their only loss against Texas, which puts them in a strong position. They aren’t undefeated but beat the team that had beaten them, which is the next best thing. They are Gene Tunney or Lennox Lewis vs. the three undefeated teams being Rocky Marciano. But the Big 12 is hurt by the perception they don’t play defense and we still tend to believe that really good teams do.
OHIO STATE 12-1 (565-334) ranked ?/5/5 ART: +140
Comments: The Buckeyes have had a roller coaster season for a 12-1 team. They appear to have righted the ship after the Purdue disaster and the close call against Maryland. I think it hurt them that they didn’t get another shot at Purdue in the Big Ten title game as Oklahoma got a second shot vs. Texas.
And don’t forget:
GEORGIA 11-2 (509-241) ranked ?/6/6 ART: +126
Comments: The Bulldogs had a 28-14 lead and missed a chip-shot field goal that would have made it 31-28. If they’d hit that, Kirby Smart would likely not have taken the gamble to fake that punt that set the Tide up at midfield, (he probably shouldn’t anyway). Do they deserve another chance over the one-loss teams?
The only other two loss power conference team is Michigan but I think can agree that they took themselves out of it when they got crushed by the Buckeyes.
I got my wish that we have 6 pegs to put into 4 holes which will hopefully bring us a bit closer to the day when we will have an 8 team playoff. I think the committee will prefer a new mix of teams in the playoff rather than setting up another shot for Georgia. That leaves it to Oklahoma and Ohio State. The Buckeyes actually have the better resume (+140 ART vs. +44) despite some shaky performances. Is the Big 10 better than the Big 12? Beats me. The fact that the Sooners erased their lone loss impresses me. The committee already had them ranked ahead of the Buckeyes and I didn’t see anything yesterday that would change that. They beat a #14 Texas team by 12, +24 ART) while Ohio State beat a #21 ranked team by 21 points (+26 ART).
My prediction: Oklahoma will play Alabama and Notre Dame will play Clemson.
ALABAMA 13-0 (623-193) (?/1/1) (ART): +141 vs. OKLAHOMA 12-1 (643-421) ranked ?/4/4 ART: +44
And
CLEMSON 13-0 (590-178) ranked 2/2/2 ART: +73 vs. NOTRE DAME 12-0 (405-207) ranked 3/3/3 ART: +130
Pesci Bowl Contenders
CENTRAL FLORIDA 12-0 (530-255) ranked ?/7/7 ART: +27
Comments: The Knights have passed all tests for two years, winning 25 straight games, the last two without their star quarterback. They overcame a 17 point halftime deficit to win the ACC title over Memphis by 15. They are what those who favor an 8 team playoff have in mind when they say there should be auto bids for the power conference champions and the best mid-major. The Golden Knights are perfect again but there’s no way they could get into the 4 team playoff. But can still be in the mythical Pesci Bowl.
Every other non-power conference team, (I’m counting Notre Dame as an ACC team here) has at least two losses so the other team in the Pesci Bowl will come from this pool of 2 loss teams:
APPALACHIAN STATE 10-2 (440-188) unranked ART +9
Comments: State has dominated most of its opponents and almost beat Penn State at Penn State but they haven’t been able to crack the Top 25 and three of the 2 loss teams they are competing with are in it.
ARMY 9-2 (339-206) ranked ?/22/25 ART +14
12/8 vs. Navy 3-9 (315-419) unranked ART +4
Comment: Army isn’t done yet. The question is where will they be when they are done? Navy dominated this series for years but suddenly army has the upper hand. However there have been many upsets in the past. If the Cadets get past the Middies their ranking will put them right in the middle of the battle for the fictional Pesci Bowl.
CINCINNATI 10-2 (419-193) unranked ART -10
Comment: Cincinnati is probably better than most of these teams but they got crushed by Central Florida, are unranked and have no one else to play until the actual bowl games so unless everybody else gets knocked off, they won’t be in the Pesci Bowl.
FRESNO STATE 11-2 (454-178) ranked ?/19/21 ART +7
Comment: The Bulldogs are a very strong team and will have a very strong case for the Pesci Bowl Not that they have avenged their previous loss to Boise State on the bronco’s home field.
UTAH STATE 10-2 (566-276) ranked ?/UR/23 ART: +2
Comments: The Aggies were a top mid-major in the 60’s and 70’s, (a combined 132-75-4). Then they declined sharply, (from 1980-2010 they were 125-222-2). In this decade they had a revival under coaches Gary Anderson and Matt Wells, going 37-17 from 2011-14. They’ve fallen back again since then (15-23 from 2015-17) but are having a strong year this year due to a very productive offense that’s averaging 49 points per game. Their only loss prior to Boise State was 31-38 at Michigan State in which the Spartans, down 30-31, scored with 2 minutes left to win it. But they are not going to win their conference and won’t get in over the team that does.
Obviously one team in the Pesci Bowl will be UCF. Looking at the others, Army, Fresno State and Utah State are all ranked. Fresno State has the highest ranking of those teams. By point differential they rank: Utah State +290, Fresno State +276, Cincinnati +266, App State +252, Army +133. I think the strongest of the lower 5 conferences are the AC and the Mountain West. I would rank the Sun Belt last. Fresno won the MWC. Utah State, as strong as they were, were beaten out for their Mountain divisional title by Boise State who then lost the title game to Fresno. So my choice for the Pesci Bowl is:
CENTRAL FLORIDA 12-0 (530-255) ranked ?/7/7 ART: +27
vs. FRESNO STATE 11-2 (454-178) ranked ?/19/21 ART +7
Since teams not in the Power Five conference, (except Notre dame) have no chance to get into the 4 team playoff, (a team with a 25 game winning streak couldn’t crack it), unless we expand to 8 with an auto big for the best non-power conference team, I’d like to see the non-power conference team join the FCS schools in that division, which is where most of them came from. They could still play power conference teams but they’d have a national championship they could win. I think Central Florida-North Dakota State would be a heck of a game.
Ty-Dee Bowl Contenders (none, of course, are ranked)
TEXAS-EL PASO 1-11 (212-393) ART: none
Comments: UTEP is so bad they lost to New Mexico State. Both used to be good and exciting teams back in the 60’s but since 1970, they have been the two worst programs in the country, (save for Buffalo, who didn’t even have a team most of that time): I-A Winning Percentage 1970-2017
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 1-11 (180-328) ART: -6
Comments: Again, couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys, (and yes, they’ve got the same coach).
CONNECTICUT 1-11 (266-605) ART: -86
Comment: Another team and coach I’m not sad to see down here. The Huskies have the worst defense ever, setting records for yards, (7,409: 617 per game) and points (605: 50).
RUTGERS 1-11 (162-377) ART: -41
Comment: And what SU fan’s heart doesn’t warm up when he looks at Rutgers record? Professor Dowling likes it, too: Why Can't Rutgers Ever Win?
SAN JOSE STATE 1-11 (255-439) ART: -7
Comments: The Spartans were not Spartan this year.
These team’s seasons have ended so it’s time to make a choice. It’s tough to choose between lousy teams so I’ll just use the numbers: the 1-11 teams that got outscored by the most will be the Ty-Dee Bowl teams:
Connecticut -399
Rutgers -215
San Jose State -185
Texas-El Paso -181
Central Michigan -185
Thus we have a dream Ty-Dee bowl match-up between:
CONNECTICUT 1-11 (266-605) ART: -86 and RUTGERS 1-11 (162-377) ART: -41
Enjoy thinking about that!