SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In its 15 years, 30 teams have played for the national championship. 18 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 11 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. 5 had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only three times have we had a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. It’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
FLORIDA STATE 12-0 (644-132) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #1
12/7 vs. Duke 10-2 (404-276) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #20
Comment: In a wacky season, who knows what will happen next. Duke being in the ACC title game is pretty wacky. Back in the day, the Blue Devils were a great power under Wallace Wade and later Bill Murray, (no, not that Bill Murray). Wade sent undefeated teams to the Rose Bowl in 1938 and 1941, (both lost). Florida State was a girl’s school at the time. Murray beat Nebraska in the 1955 Orange Bowl and Arkansas in the 1961 Cotton Bowl, losing to Oklahoma in the 1958 Orange Bowl. But that was a long time ago. This year’s Duke team is the first with a winning record since 1994. They’ve had no less than four winless teams since then. Since Florida State joined the ACC in 1992, they are 18-0 vs. Duke, the closest game being a 19 point win. They’ve score 50+ points ten times, including that 1994 season. Last year they beat Duke 48-7. But if a team isn’t supposed to be here, you have to wonder about a prediction that they can’t win here. I’ll make one anyway.
OHIO STATE 12-0 (578-233) writer’s , coach’s and BCS: #2
12/7 vs. Michigan State 11-1 (353-141) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #11
Comment: The Buckeyes, who have the nation’s longest winning streak with 24 in a row, (their longest streak ever), may wind up facing the two top defenses in the country in their remaining games. Michigan state gave up the fewest yards per game, (238) and the fewest rushing yards, (65), were 9th in pass defense (173) and 4th in points (12). Florida State is best in scoring defense, (11), and pass defense, (153), 4th in total defense (271) and 13th in rushing (118). The Buckeyes themselves have the second best rushing attack (321) and are third in scoring (48ppg), 6th in yards (530.5). They passed for 209 yards per game which somehow is only 83rd in the country. The Buckeyes have been in some shoot-outs, (they’ve given up over 30 points four times) and the Spartans can score more than most people realize, (they scored more than 40 points four times). Ohio State is really vulnerable here. We just saw what a great rush defense can do to a great rushing team. I wouldn’t be shocked by an upset at all.
A loss by either team opens up the race to the many one loss teams, (which either would become but it’s not good to have been the last one to lose). And here they are, (and I will again stick to the teams both in the automatically qualifying conferences and now the Top 10).
Auburn 11-1 (464-270) #3 in all polls: will play Missouri in the SEC title game.
Alabama 11-1 (465-136) #4 in all polls
Missouri 11-1 (465-233) #5 in all polls: will play Auburn in the SEC title game.
Oklahoma State 10-1 (452-207) #6 in all polls: will play Oklahoma 9-2 (349-232)#15 in the Coach’s, #18 in the writers and #17 in the BCS
Baylor 10-1 (609-244) #7 in the coach’s #9 in the writer’s and BCS: will play Texas 8-3 (364-276) #23 in the writers, #24 in the coaches and #25 in the BCS.
Michigan State 11-1 (353-141) #9 in the coach’s #10 in the writer’s and the BCS: will play Ohio State in the Big 10 title game
Meanwhile, the race for – or to stay out of- the Ty-D-Bowl – is over. This year’s honored participants, (if there really was a Ty-D-Bowl).
Hawaii built a 28-7 halftime lead over Army and held on to win 49-42 to finish 1-11.
Southern Mississippi avoided a second straight 0-12 season with an amazing 62-27 win over UAB, erasing a 13-21 halftime deficit.
Three one loss teams triumphed, New Mexico State over Idaho, Temple over Memphis and Connecticut over Rutgers.
Five other one loss teams lost to finish 1-11: Purdue, Idaho, Florida International, Massachusetts and Western Michigan. California had already completed a 1-11 season.
If the Ty-D-Bowl was limited to BCS conference teams it would be between:
Purdue 1-11 (179-456) vs. California 1-11 (226-551)
That would be an interesting game but the “winners” are:
Miami (Ohio) 0-12 (117-428) vs. Georgia State 0-12 (225-440)
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. It’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
FLORIDA STATE 12-0 (644-132) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #1
12/7 vs. Duke 10-2 (404-276) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #20
Comment: In a wacky season, who knows what will happen next. Duke being in the ACC title game is pretty wacky. Back in the day, the Blue Devils were a great power under Wallace Wade and later Bill Murray, (no, not that Bill Murray). Wade sent undefeated teams to the Rose Bowl in 1938 and 1941, (both lost). Florida State was a girl’s school at the time. Murray beat Nebraska in the 1955 Orange Bowl and Arkansas in the 1961 Cotton Bowl, losing to Oklahoma in the 1958 Orange Bowl. But that was a long time ago. This year’s Duke team is the first with a winning record since 1994. They’ve had no less than four winless teams since then. Since Florida State joined the ACC in 1992, they are 18-0 vs. Duke, the closest game being a 19 point win. They’ve score 50+ points ten times, including that 1994 season. Last year they beat Duke 48-7. But if a team isn’t supposed to be here, you have to wonder about a prediction that they can’t win here. I’ll make one anyway.
OHIO STATE 12-0 (578-233) writer’s , coach’s and BCS: #2
12/7 vs. Michigan State 11-1 (353-141) writer’s, coach’s and BCS: #11
Comment: The Buckeyes, who have the nation’s longest winning streak with 24 in a row, (their longest streak ever), may wind up facing the two top defenses in the country in their remaining games. Michigan state gave up the fewest yards per game, (238) and the fewest rushing yards, (65), were 9th in pass defense (173) and 4th in points (12). Florida State is best in scoring defense, (11), and pass defense, (153), 4th in total defense (271) and 13th in rushing (118). The Buckeyes themselves have the second best rushing attack (321) and are third in scoring (48ppg), 6th in yards (530.5). They passed for 209 yards per game which somehow is only 83rd in the country. The Buckeyes have been in some shoot-outs, (they’ve given up over 30 points four times) and the Spartans can score more than most people realize, (they scored more than 40 points four times). Ohio State is really vulnerable here. We just saw what a great rush defense can do to a great rushing team. I wouldn’t be shocked by an upset at all.
A loss by either team opens up the race to the many one loss teams, (which either would become but it’s not good to have been the last one to lose). And here they are, (and I will again stick to the teams both in the automatically qualifying conferences and now the Top 10).
Auburn 11-1 (464-270) #3 in all polls: will play Missouri in the SEC title game.
Alabama 11-1 (465-136) #4 in all polls
Missouri 11-1 (465-233) #5 in all polls: will play Auburn in the SEC title game.
Oklahoma State 10-1 (452-207) #6 in all polls: will play Oklahoma 9-2 (349-232)#15 in the Coach’s, #18 in the writers and #17 in the BCS
Baylor 10-1 (609-244) #7 in the coach’s #9 in the writer’s and BCS: will play Texas 8-3 (364-276) #23 in the writers, #24 in the coaches and #25 in the BCS.
Michigan State 11-1 (353-141) #9 in the coach’s #10 in the writer’s and the BCS: will play Ohio State in the Big 10 title game
Meanwhile, the race for – or to stay out of- the Ty-D-Bowl – is over. This year’s honored participants, (if there really was a Ty-D-Bowl).
Hawaii built a 28-7 halftime lead over Army and held on to win 49-42 to finish 1-11.
Southern Mississippi avoided a second straight 0-12 season with an amazing 62-27 win over UAB, erasing a 13-21 halftime deficit.
Three one loss teams triumphed, New Mexico State over Idaho, Temple over Memphis and Connecticut over Rutgers.
Five other one loss teams lost to finish 1-11: Purdue, Idaho, Florida International, Massachusetts and Western Michigan. California had already completed a 1-11 season.
If the Ty-D-Bowl was limited to BCS conference teams it would be between:
Purdue 1-11 (179-456) vs. California 1-11 (226-551)
That would be an interesting game but the “winners” are:
Miami (Ohio) 0-12 (117-428) vs. Georgia State 0-12 (225-440)
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