SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In it’s 14 years, 28 teams have played for the national championship. 17 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 10 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. Four had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only last year and in 2006 did we have a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
ALABAMA 6-0 #1
10/20 at Tennessee 3-3
10/27 Mississippi State 6-0 #12
11/3 at Louisiana State 6-1 #6
11/10 Texas A&M 5-1 #18
11/17 Western Carolina 1-6 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 1-5
The Tide will face three significant challenges in a row from October 27 through November 10th. LSU will be waiting for them like Andy Jackson was waiting for the British to come. But the Tide is better than all three teams and has the other two at home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the national title game again.
FLORIDA 5-0, #2
10/20 South Carolina 6-1 #7
10/27 Georgia 5-1 #11
11/3 Missouri 3-4
11/10 Louisiana-Lafayette 4-1
11/17 Jacksonville State 3-3 (FCS)
11/24 at Florida State 6-1 #14
Their game with South Carolina is huge but traditional rivals Georgia and Florida State will challenge them, as well. The first two games are at home and the third a non-SEC game, so they may renew their rivalry with Alabama in the SEC title game, where they‘ve met 7 times.
OREGON 6-0, #3
11/18 at Arizona State 5-1
10/27 Colorado 1-5
11/3 at Southern California 5-1 #10
11/10 at California 3-4
11/17 Stanford 4-2 #20
11/24 at Oregon State 5-0 #8
This team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. I like them big over ASU and Stanford at home. It will come down to whether they can survive the trips to USC and instate rival Oregon State. I think they will.
KANSAS STATE 6-0, #4
10/20 at West Virginia 5-1 #13
10/27 Texas Tech 5-1 #17
11/3 Oklahoma State 3-2
11/10 at Texas Christian 5-1 #23
11/17 at Baylor 3-2
12/1 Texas 4-2 #25
This is a more solid team than West Virginia but they’ve got quite a gauntlet to run: six straight games against teams with winning records. Four of those games will be on the road. They will get nicked up at some point.
NOTRE DAME 7-0, #5
10/20 Brigham Young 4-3
10/27 at Oklahoma 4-1 #9
11/3 Pittsburgh 2-4
11/10 at Boston College 1-4
11/17 Wake Forest 3-3
11/24 at Southern California 5-1 #10
They survived Stanford but play on the road vs. Oklahoma and Southern California. But this is a good team and Brian Kelly can flat-out coach, whatever you may think of him. If the Irish run the table, can you keep them out of the national title game?
OREGON STATE 5-0, #8
10/20 Utah 2-4
10/27 at Washington 3-3
11/3 Arizona State 5-1
11/10 at Stanford 4-2 #20
11/17 California 3-4
11/24 Oregon 6-0 #3
12/1 Nicholls State 1-4 (FCS)
Washington can be dangerous and ASU and Stanford are tough. Then comes the big one vs. Oregon. They won’t be on this list at the end.
LOUISVILLE 6-0, #16
10/20 South Florida 2-4
10/26 Cincinnati 5-0 #21
11/3 Temple 3-2
11/10 at Syracuse 2-4
11/24 Connecticut 3-4
11/29 at Rutgers 6-0 #15
We keep talking about how bad the Big East is and how we still might be able to win it. Imagine if we were undefeated like Louisville, Rutgers and Cincinnati? Would the BCS invite a Big East team?
MISSISSIPPI STATE 6-0, #12
10/20 Middle Tennessee 4-2
10/27 at Alabama 6-0 #1
11/3 Texas A&M 5-1 #18
11/10 at Louisiana State 6-1 #6
11/17 Arkansas 3-4
11/24 at Mississippi 4-3
Another team looking forward to 10/27-11/10. That’s their season. They aren’t traveling to both Alabama and LSU and coming back with wins. And don’t overlook Middle Tennessee State, which beat Georgia Tech by three touchdowns.
RUTGERS 6-0, #15
10/20 at Temple 3-2
10/27 Kent State 5-1
11/10 Army 1-5
11/17 at Cincinnati 5-0 #21
11/24 at Pittsburgh 2-4
11/29 Louisville 6-0 #16
They will be 9-0 going into the Cincy game. It’s 2006 all over again.
CINCINNATI 5-0, #21
10/20 at Toledo 6-1
10/26 at Louisville 6-0 #16
11/3 Syracuse 2-4
11/10 at Temple 3-2
11/17 Rutgers 6-0 #15
11/23 South Florida 2-4
12/1 at Connecticut 3-4
If they can win at Louisville, the Rutgers game will be a battle of 9-0 teams.
Overall: Alabama-LSU and Florida-South Carolina are the big games in the SEC. One of those teams will play for the national title, but not two of this this time. I think Oregon and Notre Dame have the best chance to be the other team. Right now the Ducks are #2 and the Irish #5. If they both run the table, can the Ducks stay ahead of the Irish?
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
ALABAMA 6-0 #1
10/20 at Tennessee 3-3
10/27 Mississippi State 6-0 #12
11/3 at Louisiana State 6-1 #6
11/10 Texas A&M 5-1 #18
11/17 Western Carolina 1-6 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 1-5
The Tide will face three significant challenges in a row from October 27 through November 10th. LSU will be waiting for them like Andy Jackson was waiting for the British to come. But the Tide is better than all three teams and has the other two at home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the national title game again.
FLORIDA 5-0, #2
10/20 South Carolina 6-1 #7
10/27 Georgia 5-1 #11
11/3 Missouri 3-4
11/10 Louisiana-Lafayette 4-1
11/17 Jacksonville State 3-3 (FCS)
11/24 at Florida State 6-1 #14
Their game with South Carolina is huge but traditional rivals Georgia and Florida State will challenge them, as well. The first two games are at home and the third a non-SEC game, so they may renew their rivalry with Alabama in the SEC title game, where they‘ve met 7 times.
OREGON 6-0, #3
11/18 at Arizona State 5-1
10/27 Colorado 1-5
11/3 at Southern California 5-1 #10
11/10 at California 3-4
11/17 Stanford 4-2 #20
11/24 at Oregon State 5-0 #8
This team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. I like them big over ASU and Stanford at home. It will come down to whether they can survive the trips to USC and instate rival Oregon State. I think they will.
KANSAS STATE 6-0, #4
10/20 at West Virginia 5-1 #13
10/27 Texas Tech 5-1 #17
11/3 Oklahoma State 3-2
11/10 at Texas Christian 5-1 #23
11/17 at Baylor 3-2
12/1 Texas 4-2 #25
This is a more solid team than West Virginia but they’ve got quite a gauntlet to run: six straight games against teams with winning records. Four of those games will be on the road. They will get nicked up at some point.
NOTRE DAME 7-0, #5
10/20 Brigham Young 4-3
10/27 at Oklahoma 4-1 #9
11/3 Pittsburgh 2-4
11/10 at Boston College 1-4
11/17 Wake Forest 3-3
11/24 at Southern California 5-1 #10
They survived Stanford but play on the road vs. Oklahoma and Southern California. But this is a good team and Brian Kelly can flat-out coach, whatever you may think of him. If the Irish run the table, can you keep them out of the national title game?
OREGON STATE 5-0, #8
10/20 Utah 2-4
10/27 at Washington 3-3
11/3 Arizona State 5-1
11/10 at Stanford 4-2 #20
11/17 California 3-4
11/24 Oregon 6-0 #3
12/1 Nicholls State 1-4 (FCS)
Washington can be dangerous and ASU and Stanford are tough. Then comes the big one vs. Oregon. They won’t be on this list at the end.
LOUISVILLE 6-0, #16
10/20 South Florida 2-4
10/26 Cincinnati 5-0 #21
11/3 Temple 3-2
11/10 at Syracuse 2-4
11/24 Connecticut 3-4
11/29 at Rutgers 6-0 #15
We keep talking about how bad the Big East is and how we still might be able to win it. Imagine if we were undefeated like Louisville, Rutgers and Cincinnati? Would the BCS invite a Big East team?
MISSISSIPPI STATE 6-0, #12
10/20 Middle Tennessee 4-2
10/27 at Alabama 6-0 #1
11/3 Texas A&M 5-1 #18
11/10 at Louisiana State 6-1 #6
11/17 Arkansas 3-4
11/24 at Mississippi 4-3
Another team looking forward to 10/27-11/10. That’s their season. They aren’t traveling to both Alabama and LSU and coming back with wins. And don’t overlook Middle Tennessee State, which beat Georgia Tech by three touchdowns.
RUTGERS 6-0, #15
10/20 at Temple 3-2
10/27 Kent State 5-1
11/10 Army 1-5
11/17 at Cincinnati 5-0 #21
11/24 at Pittsburgh 2-4
11/29 Louisville 6-0 #16
They will be 9-0 going into the Cincy game. It’s 2006 all over again.
CINCINNATI 5-0, #21
10/20 at Toledo 6-1
10/26 at Louisville 6-0 #16
11/3 Syracuse 2-4
11/10 at Temple 3-2
11/17 Rutgers 6-0 #15
11/23 South Florida 2-4
12/1 at Connecticut 3-4
If they can win at Louisville, the Rutgers game will be a battle of 9-0 teams.
Overall: Alabama-LSU and Florida-South Carolina are the big games in the SEC. One of those teams will play for the national title, but not two of this this time. I think Oregon and Notre Dame have the best chance to be the other team. Right now the Ducks are #2 and the Irish #5. If they both run the table, can the Ducks stay ahead of the Irish?
