SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In it’s 14 years, 28 teams have played for the national championship. 17 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 10 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. Four had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only last year and in 2006 did we have a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
ALABAMA 8-0 #1
11/3 at Louisiana State 7-1 #5
11/10 Texas A&M 6-2 #16
11/17 Western Carolina 1-8 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 1-7
After exposing Mississippi State, the tide now has a date at LSU where the Tigers just might want to beat them. Alabama may be even better than last year and the Tigers aren’t as good but if the Tide is going to get beat, this is where it’s most likely to happen. Texas A&M is pretty good but that’s a home game and the last two are walk-overs. (Boy have things changed at Auburn in two years.) Then they have the SEC title game but they will be heavily favored to win that no matter who they play.
KANSAS STATE 8-0, #2
11/3 Oklahoma State 5-2 #24
11/10 at Texas Christian 5-3
11/17 at Baylor 3-4
12/1 Texas 6-2 #23
K-State won the battle of the teams that exposed West Virginia 55-24 over Texas Tech. They seem to be getting better every week. Okie State and TCU are no push-overs. Baylor has a puncher’s chance. I’m not sure what to think of Texas. But K-State is clearly the best team in the conference and they won‘t have to play in a conference championship game.
OREGON 8-0, #4
11/3 at Southern California 6-2 #17
11/10 at California 3-6
11/17 Stanford 6-2 #14
11/24 at Oregon State 6-1 #11
This team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. I like them Stanford at home. It will come down to whether they can survive the trips to USC and instate rival Oregon State, as well as a likely rematch with the Trojans in the Pac 12 title game. They are probably the second best team in the country but there are lots of opportunities to slip up there.
NOTRE DAME 8-0, #3
11/3 Pittsburgh 4-4
11/10 at Boston College 2-6
11/17 Wake Forest 4-4
11/24 at Southern California 6-2 #17
People thought Oklahoma would prove Notre Dame was pretender. I kind of tho9ught Oklahoma was a pretender. It’s been a few years since they really looked like a national title contender and Notre Dame exposed them, not the other way around. USC is another phony contender but they are the likely the only thing between Notre Dame and a perfect record. I still think the powers that be will find a way to put the Irish in the title game, regardless of the computers.
LOUISVILLE 8-0, #10
11/3 Temple 3-4
11/10 at Syracuse 4-4
11/24 Connecticut 3-5
11/29 at Rutgers 7-1
It looked good for a while for the Big east with three undefeated and ranked teams. But two of them lost to MAC teams and Louisville isn’t going to make it to the end with a goose-egg either. Even if they did, I doubt they’d wind up playing for the title. If they did, they’d likely get crushed by any of the above teams.
Overall: Pretenders Rutgers, Mississippi State and Oregon State all went down so we are down to five undefeated teams. I think it’s very likely at least two of the above teams will run the table. If they do, (unless perhaps, it’s Louisville), there won’t be a one loss team in the BCS title game. We may have more than two such teams which will provide us with another of those controversies that necessitated the end of the two team playoff. The selection for the title game may come down to resumes rather than records. I think Alabama and Oregon are the best teams and will play for the title if they win out.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
ALABAMA 8-0 #1
11/3 at Louisiana State 7-1 #5
11/10 Texas A&M 6-2 #16
11/17 Western Carolina 1-8 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 1-7
After exposing Mississippi State, the tide now has a date at LSU where the Tigers just might want to beat them. Alabama may be even better than last year and the Tigers aren’t as good but if the Tide is going to get beat, this is where it’s most likely to happen. Texas A&M is pretty good but that’s a home game and the last two are walk-overs. (Boy have things changed at Auburn in two years.) Then they have the SEC title game but they will be heavily favored to win that no matter who they play.
KANSAS STATE 8-0, #2
11/3 Oklahoma State 5-2 #24
11/10 at Texas Christian 5-3
11/17 at Baylor 3-4
12/1 Texas 6-2 #23
K-State won the battle of the teams that exposed West Virginia 55-24 over Texas Tech. They seem to be getting better every week. Okie State and TCU are no push-overs. Baylor has a puncher’s chance. I’m not sure what to think of Texas. But K-State is clearly the best team in the conference and they won‘t have to play in a conference championship game.
OREGON 8-0, #4
11/3 at Southern California 6-2 #17
11/10 at California 3-6
11/17 Stanford 6-2 #14
11/24 at Oregon State 6-1 #11
This team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. I like them Stanford at home. It will come down to whether they can survive the trips to USC and instate rival Oregon State, as well as a likely rematch with the Trojans in the Pac 12 title game. They are probably the second best team in the country but there are lots of opportunities to slip up there.
NOTRE DAME 8-0, #3
11/3 Pittsburgh 4-4
11/10 at Boston College 2-6
11/17 Wake Forest 4-4
11/24 at Southern California 6-2 #17
People thought Oklahoma would prove Notre Dame was pretender. I kind of tho9ught Oklahoma was a pretender. It’s been a few years since they really looked like a national title contender and Notre Dame exposed them, not the other way around. USC is another phony contender but they are the likely the only thing between Notre Dame and a perfect record. I still think the powers that be will find a way to put the Irish in the title game, regardless of the computers.
LOUISVILLE 8-0, #10
11/3 Temple 3-4
11/10 at Syracuse 4-4
11/24 Connecticut 3-5
11/29 at Rutgers 7-1
It looked good for a while for the Big east with three undefeated and ranked teams. But two of them lost to MAC teams and Louisville isn’t going to make it to the end with a goose-egg either. Even if they did, I doubt they’d wind up playing for the title. If they did, they’d likely get crushed by any of the above teams.
Overall: Pretenders Rutgers, Mississippi State and Oregon State all went down so we are down to five undefeated teams. I think it’s very likely at least two of the above teams will run the table. If they do, (unless perhaps, it’s Louisville), there won’t be a one loss team in the BCS title game. We may have more than two such teams which will provide us with another of those controversies that necessitated the end of the two team playoff. The selection for the title game may come down to resumes rather than records. I think Alabama and Oregon are the best teams and will play for the title if they win out.