SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In its 15 years, 30 teams have played for the national championship. 18 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 11 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. 5 had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only three times have we had a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now) and Louisville is undefeated and ranked #8, so they have both a good chance of running the table and an outside stance of climbing the rankings high enough to get in, so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 6-0 (233-68) writers: #1, coaches: #1
10/19 Arkansas 3-4 (163-193)
10/26 Tennessee 3-3 (190-168)
11/2 BYE
11/9 Louisiana State 6-1 (290-154) writers: #6, coaches: #8
11/16 at Mississippi State 3-3 (183-138)
11/23 Chattanooga 4-2 (199-108)
11/30 at Auburn 5-1 (206-113)
Comment: The Tide should roll to a 12-0 regular season. Besides them there are seven other SEC teams in the top 25: Georgia, Texas A&M, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Auburn. They’ve already beaten A&M and will play LSU at home. Auburn could be feisty on the road. But they don’t play the four others at all. And it’s not looking like the East will provide them with an opponent they can’t handle.
OREGON 6-0 (341-83) writers: #2, coaches: #2
10/19 Washington State 4-3 (209-175)
10/26 UCLA 5-0 (229-91) writers: #9, coaches: #10
11/2: BYE
11/7 at Stanford 5-1 (217-133) writers and coaches: #13
11/16 Utah 4-2 (222-152)
11/23 at Arizona 3-2 (176-95)
11/29 Oregon State 5-1 (260-182)
Comments: Statistically, the Ducks are the most impressive team in the country. They have out-scored their opposition by an average of 57-14. But they have a very bumpy ride coming up: six straight games against teams with winning records. Each could be that team that ruins their national title hopes.
CLEMSON 6-0 (243-97) writers: #3 coaches: #4
10/19 Florida State 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #6
10/26 at Maryland 5-1 (186-130)
11/2 at Virginia 2-4 (134-164)
11/9 BYE
11/14 Georgia Tech 3-3 (196-134)
11/23 the Citadel 2-5 (194-213)
11/30 at South Carolina 5-1 (207-136) writers: #11, coaches: #9
Comment: It’s all about the game two weeks from now in Death Valley-and about the rivalry game with a previously disappointing South Carolina at the end of the regular season. I don’t see anyone else holding the Tigers.
OHIO STATE 6-0 (281-115) writers: #4, coaches: #3
10/19 Iowa 4-2 (178-101)
10/26 Penn State 4-2 (200-142)
11/2 at Purdue 1-5 (92-227)
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-2 (180-138)
11/23 Indiana 3-3 (249-203)
11/30 at Michigan 5-1 (234-140) writers: unranked, coaches: #24
Comment: The Buckeyes have some challenges left but passed their biggest test in beating Wisconsin and Northwestern in a couple of terrific games. Since they were on probation last year they actually have the nation’s longest winning streak with 18 in a row. One red flag: they’ve given up 22 points per game during that span. They’ve won some shoot-outs. But they don’t face a ranked team until Michigan and they are barely ranked.
FLORIDA STATE 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #5
10/12 BYE
10/19 at Clemson 6-0 (243-97) writers: #3, coaches #4
10/26 North Carolina State 3-3 (148-129)
11/2 Miami 5-0 (226-80) writers: #10, coaches #11
11/9 at Wake Forest 3-3 (120-132)
11/16 Syracuse 3-3 (188-147)
11/23 Idaho 1-6 (117-302)
11/30 at Florida 4-2 (131-78) writers and coaches: #22
Comment: The Noles may be “back” but they have some huge games coming up at Clemson and Florida and at home vs. Miami.
LOUISVILLE 6-0 (246-44) writers and coaches: #8
10/18 Central Florida 4-1 (159-83)
10/26 at South Florida 2-4 (97-181)
11/2 BYE
11/8 Connecticut 0-5 (82-143)
11/16 Houston 5-0 (199-95)
11/23 Memphis 1-4 (92-101)
11/30 BYE
12/5 at Cincinnati 4-2 (190-122)
Comment: Louisville has a great chance to run the table and they are ranked highly enough that if the teams above them all get dinged they could conceivably find themselves in the national title game. But I have a feeling there could be an upset hiding in the woods, from UCF or Houston or Cincinnati. Even if it doesn’t they might have to blow those teams out of the water to get a shot at the title and they didn’t do that on national TV vs. Rutgers. It’s interesting that even Houston isn’t ranked.
UCLA 5-0 (229-91) writers: #9 coaches: #10
10/19 at Stanford 5-1 (217-133) writers and coaches: #13
10/26 at Oregon 6-0 (341-83) writers and coaches: #2
11/2 Colorado 2-3 (125-204)
11/9 at Arizona 3-2 (176-95)
11/15 Washington 4-2 (211-119) writers: #20, coaches: #25
11/23 Arizona State 4-2 (247-181)
11/30 at Southern California 4-2 (168-137)
Comment: This is a coming program but I doubt they will be on this list in November.
MIAMI 5-0 (226-80) writers: #10, coaches: #11
10/17 at North Carolina 1-4 (118-157)
10/26 Wake Forest 3-3 (96-156)
11/2 at Florida State 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #5
11/9 Virginia Tech 6-1 (162-105) writers: #19, coaches: #20
11/16 at Duke 4-2 (215-148)
11/23 Virginia 2-4 (134-164)
11/29 at Pittsburgh 3-2 (143-145)
Comment: Are the Canes back? We’ll find out 11/2-9. If they win those games they could rise very swiftly in the rankings. Strange thing: They and their next three opponents all had byes this week.
BAYLOR 5-0 (317-110) writers and coaches: #12
10/19 Iowa State 1-4 (134-142)
10/26 at Kansas 2-3 (101-118)
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oklahoma 5-1 (176-101) writers: #18, coaches: #18
11/16 Texas Tech 6-0 (251-104) at Arlington writers: #16, coaches: #15
11/23 Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100) writers: #21, coaches #17
11/30 at TCU 3-3 (167-128)
12/7 Texas 4-2 (198-162)
Comment: The Bears came back down to earth against a decent Kansas State team. They will be facing mostly decent teams the rest of the way. Even Iowa State plays teams close. And those last five games will be a gauntlet. Still: is there any way this team could be marches with Oregon in a bowl game?
TEXAS TECH 6-0 (251-104) writers: #16, coaches: #15
10/19 at West Virginia 3-3 (144-171)
10/26 at Oklahoma 5-1 (176-101) writers: #18, coaches #18
11/2 Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100) writers: #21, coaches: #17
11/9 Kansas State 2-4 (181-162)
11/16 vs. Baylor at Arlington 5-0 (317-110) writers and coaches: #12
11/23 BYE
11/28 at Texas 4-2 (198-162)
Comment: The Red Raiders have another one of those teams that should provide plenty of excitement in shoot-outs with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor but will be watching the national title game on TV.
MISSOURI 6-0 (274-138) writers and coaches: #14
10/19 Florida 4-2 (131-78) writers and coaches: #22
10/26 South Carolina 5-1 (207-136) writers: #11, coaches #9
11/2 Tennessee 3-3 (190-168)
11/9 at Kentucky 1-5 (115-176)
11/16 BYE
11/23 at Mississippi 3-3 (174-167)
11/30 Texas A&M 5-1 (287-192) writers and coaches: #7
Comment: The Tigers made a statement by beating Georgia at Georgia by 15 points. They’ve got three more statements to make against Florida, South Carolina and Texas A&M but those games will all be at home. Unfortunately their star quarterback is out for at least the rest of the regular season with a separated shoulder. It was his injury last year that sent them spiraling to a disappointing 5-7 record so the second half of the Tigers season may not much resemble the first half.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now) and Louisville is undefeated and ranked #8, so they have both a good chance of running the table and an outside stance of climbing the rankings high enough to get in, so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 6-0 (233-68) writers: #1, coaches: #1
10/19 Arkansas 3-4 (163-193)
10/26 Tennessee 3-3 (190-168)
11/2 BYE
11/9 Louisiana State 6-1 (290-154) writers: #6, coaches: #8
11/16 at Mississippi State 3-3 (183-138)
11/23 Chattanooga 4-2 (199-108)
11/30 at Auburn 5-1 (206-113)
Comment: The Tide should roll to a 12-0 regular season. Besides them there are seven other SEC teams in the top 25: Georgia, Texas A&M, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Auburn. They’ve already beaten A&M and will play LSU at home. Auburn could be feisty on the road. But they don’t play the four others at all. And it’s not looking like the East will provide them with an opponent they can’t handle.
OREGON 6-0 (341-83) writers: #2, coaches: #2
10/19 Washington State 4-3 (209-175)
10/26 UCLA 5-0 (229-91) writers: #9, coaches: #10
11/2: BYE
11/7 at Stanford 5-1 (217-133) writers and coaches: #13
11/16 Utah 4-2 (222-152)
11/23 at Arizona 3-2 (176-95)
11/29 Oregon State 5-1 (260-182)
Comments: Statistically, the Ducks are the most impressive team in the country. They have out-scored their opposition by an average of 57-14. But they have a very bumpy ride coming up: six straight games against teams with winning records. Each could be that team that ruins their national title hopes.
CLEMSON 6-0 (243-97) writers: #3 coaches: #4
10/19 Florida State 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #6
10/26 at Maryland 5-1 (186-130)
11/2 at Virginia 2-4 (134-164)
11/9 BYE
11/14 Georgia Tech 3-3 (196-134)
11/23 the Citadel 2-5 (194-213)
11/30 at South Carolina 5-1 (207-136) writers: #11, coaches: #9
Comment: It’s all about the game two weeks from now in Death Valley-and about the rivalry game with a previously disappointing South Carolina at the end of the regular season. I don’t see anyone else holding the Tigers.
OHIO STATE 6-0 (281-115) writers: #4, coaches: #3
10/19 Iowa 4-2 (178-101)
10/26 Penn State 4-2 (200-142)
11/2 at Purdue 1-5 (92-227)
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-2 (180-138)
11/23 Indiana 3-3 (249-203)
11/30 at Michigan 5-1 (234-140) writers: unranked, coaches: #24
Comment: The Buckeyes have some challenges left but passed their biggest test in beating Wisconsin and Northwestern in a couple of terrific games. Since they were on probation last year they actually have the nation’s longest winning streak with 18 in a row. One red flag: they’ve given up 22 points per game during that span. They’ve won some shoot-outs. But they don’t face a ranked team until Michigan and they are barely ranked.
FLORIDA STATE 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #5
10/12 BYE
10/19 at Clemson 6-0 (243-97) writers: #3, coaches #4
10/26 North Carolina State 3-3 (148-129)
11/2 Miami 5-0 (226-80) writers: #10, coaches #11
11/9 at Wake Forest 3-3 (120-132)
11/16 Syracuse 3-3 (188-147)
11/23 Idaho 1-6 (117-302)
11/30 at Florida 4-2 (131-78) writers and coaches: #22
Comment: The Noles may be “back” but they have some huge games coming up at Clemson and Florida and at home vs. Miami.
LOUISVILLE 6-0 (246-44) writers and coaches: #8
10/18 Central Florida 4-1 (159-83)
10/26 at South Florida 2-4 (97-181)
11/2 BYE
11/8 Connecticut 0-5 (82-143)
11/16 Houston 5-0 (199-95)
11/23 Memphis 1-4 (92-101)
11/30 BYE
12/5 at Cincinnati 4-2 (190-122)
Comment: Louisville has a great chance to run the table and they are ranked highly enough that if the teams above them all get dinged they could conceivably find themselves in the national title game. But I have a feeling there could be an upset hiding in the woods, from UCF or Houston or Cincinnati. Even if it doesn’t they might have to blow those teams out of the water to get a shot at the title and they didn’t do that on national TV vs. Rutgers. It’s interesting that even Houston isn’t ranked.
UCLA 5-0 (229-91) writers: #9 coaches: #10
10/19 at Stanford 5-1 (217-133) writers and coaches: #13
10/26 at Oregon 6-0 (341-83) writers and coaches: #2
11/2 Colorado 2-3 (125-204)
11/9 at Arizona 3-2 (176-95)
11/15 Washington 4-2 (211-119) writers: #20, coaches: #25
11/23 Arizona State 4-2 (247-181)
11/30 at Southern California 4-2 (168-137)
Comment: This is a coming program but I doubt they will be on this list in November.
MIAMI 5-0 (226-80) writers: #10, coaches: #11
10/17 at North Carolina 1-4 (118-157)
10/26 Wake Forest 3-3 (96-156)
11/2 at Florida State 5-0 (268-60) writers and coaches: #5
11/9 Virginia Tech 6-1 (162-105) writers: #19, coaches: #20
11/16 at Duke 4-2 (215-148)
11/23 Virginia 2-4 (134-164)
11/29 at Pittsburgh 3-2 (143-145)
Comment: Are the Canes back? We’ll find out 11/2-9. If they win those games they could rise very swiftly in the rankings. Strange thing: They and their next three opponents all had byes this week.
BAYLOR 5-0 (317-110) writers and coaches: #12
10/19 Iowa State 1-4 (134-142)
10/26 at Kansas 2-3 (101-118)
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oklahoma 5-1 (176-101) writers: #18, coaches: #18
11/16 Texas Tech 6-0 (251-104) at Arlington writers: #16, coaches: #15
11/23 Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100) writers: #21, coaches #17
11/30 at TCU 3-3 (167-128)
12/7 Texas 4-2 (198-162)
Comment: The Bears came back down to earth against a decent Kansas State team. They will be facing mostly decent teams the rest of the way. Even Iowa State plays teams close. And those last five games will be a gauntlet. Still: is there any way this team could be marches with Oregon in a bowl game?
TEXAS TECH 6-0 (251-104) writers: #16, coaches: #15
10/19 at West Virginia 3-3 (144-171)
10/26 at Oklahoma 5-1 (176-101) writers: #18, coaches #18
11/2 Oklahoma State 4-1 (190-100) writers: #21, coaches: #17
11/9 Kansas State 2-4 (181-162)
11/16 vs. Baylor at Arlington 5-0 (317-110) writers and coaches: #12
11/23 BYE
11/28 at Texas 4-2 (198-162)
Comment: The Red Raiders have another one of those teams that should provide plenty of excitement in shoot-outs with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor but will be watching the national title game on TV.
MISSOURI 6-0 (274-138) writers and coaches: #14
10/19 Florida 4-2 (131-78) writers and coaches: #22
10/26 South Carolina 5-1 (207-136) writers: #11, coaches #9
11/2 Tennessee 3-3 (190-168)
11/9 at Kentucky 1-5 (115-176)
11/16 BYE
11/23 at Mississippi 3-3 (174-167)
11/30 Texas A&M 5-1 (287-192) writers and coaches: #7
Comment: The Tigers made a statement by beating Georgia at Georgia by 15 points. They’ve got three more statements to make against Florida, South Carolina and Texas A&M but those games will all be at home. Unfortunately their star quarterback is out for at least the rest of the regular season with a separated shoulder. It was his injury last year that sent them spiraling to a disappointing 5-7 record so the second half of the Tigers season may not much resemble the first half.
