SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In it’s 14 years, 28 teams have played for the national championship. 17 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 10 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. Four had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only last year and in 2006 did we have a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
ALABAMA 5-0, ranked #1 in the writer’s poll and the coach’s poll.
10/13 at Missouri 3-3
10/20 at Tennessee 3-2
10/27 Mississippi State 5-0 #19 / #18
11/3 at Louisiana State 5-1 #9 / #8
11/10 Texas A&M 4-1 #22/ #21
11/17 Western Carolina 1-5 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 1-4
The Tide will face three significant challenges in a row from October 27 through November 10th. LSU will be waiting for them like Andy Jackson was waiting for the British to come. But the Tide is better than all three teams and has the other two at home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the national title game again.
OREGON 6-0, #2 / #2
11/18 at Arizona State 4-1
10/27 Colorado 1-4
11/3 at Southern California 4-1 #11 / #9
11/10 at California 2-4
11/17 Stanford 4-1 #17 / #17
11/24 at Oregon State 4-0 #10 / #14
This team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. I like them big over ASU and Stanford at home. It will come down to whether they can survive the trips to USC and instate rival Oregon State. I think they will.
SOUTH CAROLINA 6-0, #3 / #3
10/13 at Louisiana State 5-1 #9 / #8
10/20 at Florida 5-0 #4 / #6
10/27 Tennessee 3-2
11/10 Arkansas 2-4
11/17 Wofford 5-0 (FCS) #6
11/24 at Clemson 5-1 #16 / #13
They had a very impressive win over Georgia but some big challenges the next two weeks. If they survive them I think they’ll face Alabama in the SEC title game but that’s as far as they go.
FLORIDA 5-0, #4 / #6
10/13 At Vanderbilt 2-3
10/20 South Carolina 6-0 #3 / #3
10/27 Georgia 5-1 #14 / #12
11/3 Missouri 3-3
11/10 Louisiana-Lafayette 4-1
11/17 Jacksonville State 3-2
11/24 at Florida State 5-1 #12 / #11
Their game with South Carolina is huge but traditional rivals Georgia and Florida State will challenge them, as well. The first two games are at home and the third a non-SEC game, so they may renew their rivalry with Alabama in the SEC title game, where they‘ve met 7 times.
WEST VIRGINIA 5-0, #5 / #4
10/13 at Texas Tech 4-1
10/20 Kansas State 5-0 #6 / #5
11/3 Texas Christian 4-1 NR / #23
11/10 at Oklahoma State 2-2
11/17 Oklahoma 3-1 #13 / #10
11/23 at Iowa State 4-1 NR / #25
12/1 Kansas 1-4
The Mountaineers have plenty of challenges coming up and their penchant for basketball scores will keep them out of the national title game. The question is: if they lose a game or two, does that knock Geno Smith out of the Heisman Trophy race?
KANSAS STATE 5-0, #6 / #5
10/13 at Iowa State 4-1 NR / #25
10/20 at West Virginia 5-0 #5 / #4
10/27 Texas Tech 4-1
11/3 Oklahoma State 2-2
11/10 at Texas Christian 4-1 NR / #23
11/17 at Baylor 3-1
12/1 Texas 4-1 #15 / #15
This is a more solid team than West Virginia but they’ve got quite a gauntlet to run: no teams with losing records and no less than six teams with one or no losses. Four of those games will be on the road. They will get nicked up at some point.
NOTRE DAME 6-0, #7 / #7
10/13 Stanford 4-1 #17 / #17
10/20 Brigham Young 4-2
10/27 at Oklahoma 3-1 #13 / #10
11/3 Pittsburgh 2-3
11/10 at Boston College 1-4
11/17 Wake Forest 3-3
11/24 at Southern California 4-1 #11 / #9
They host Stanford and play on the road vs. Oklahoma and Southern California. But this is a good team and Brian Kelly can flat-out coach, whatever you may think of him. In the Irish run the table, can you keep them out of the national title game?
OREGON STATE 4-0, #10 / #14
10/13 at Brigham Young 4-2
10/20 Utah 2-3
10/27 at Washington 3-2
11/3 Arizona State 4-1
11/10 at Stanford 4-1 #17 / #17
11/17 California 2-4
11/24 Oregon 6-0 #2 / #2
12/1 Nicholls State 1-3
At BYU will be tough. Washington can be dangerous and ASU and Stanford are 4-1. Then comes the big one vs. Oregon. They won’t be on this list at the end.
LOUISVILLE 5-0, #18 / #16
10/13 at Pittsburgh 2-3
10/20 South Florida 2-4
10/26 Cincinnati 4-0 #21 / #20
11/3 Temple 2-2
11/10 at Syracuse 2-3
11/24 Connecticut 3-3
11/29 at Rutgers 5-0 #20 / #19
We keep talking about how bad the Big East is and how we still might be able to win it. Imagine if we were undefeated like Louisville, Rutgers and Cincinnati. Would the BCS invite a Big East team?
MISSISSIPPI STATE 5-0, #19 / #18
10/13 Tennessee 3-2
10/20 Middle Tennessee 3-2
10/27 at Alabama 5-0 #1 / #1
11/3 Texas A&M 4-1 #22 / #21
11/10 at Louisiana State 5-1 #9 / #8
11/17 Arkansas 2-4
11/24 at Mississippi 3-3
Another team looking forward to 10/27-11/10. That’s their season. They aren’t traveling to both Alabama and LSU and coming back with wins. And don’t overlook Middle Tennessee State, which beat Georgia Tech by three touchdowns.
RUTGERS 5-0, #20 / # 19
10/13 Syracuse 2-3
10/20 at Temple 2-2
10/27 Kent State 4-1
11/10 Army 1-4
11/17 at Cincinnati 4-0 #21 / #20
11/24 at Pittsburgh 2-3
11/29 Louisville 5-0 #18 / #16
Who are they afraid of? If we can’t beat them they will be 9-0 going into the Cincy game.
CINCINNATI 4-0, #21 / #20
10/13 Fordham 4-2 (FCS)
10/20 at Toledo 5-1
10/26 at Louisville 5-0 #18 / #16
11/3 Syracuse 2-3
11/10 at Temple 2-2
11/17 Rutgers 5-0 #20 / #19
11/23 South Florida 2-4
12/1 at Connecticut 3-3
The seven blocks of granite won’t be playing for Fordham. If they can win at Louisville, the Rutgers game will be a battle of 9-0 teams.
Overall: Is an undefeated record important? Why would these teams be playing West Carolina, Wofford, Jacksonville State, Nicholls State and Fordham in late season games if it weren’t? You can pencil in an SEC team after 6 straight national titles. Even a loss is unlikely to prevent that. The ACC is fresh out of undefeated teams and the Big ten doesn’t even play one. Even and unbeaten Big East team isn’t going in. The opposition for the SEC team is going to come from the Pac 12, (probably Oregon), the Big 12, (more likely Kansas State), or Notre Dame. It will be interesting to see if the Irish mysteriously move ahead of other undefeated teams late in the season.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
ALABAMA 5-0, ranked #1 in the writer’s poll and the coach’s poll.
10/13 at Missouri 3-3
10/20 at Tennessee 3-2
10/27 Mississippi State 5-0 #19 / #18
11/3 at Louisiana State 5-1 #9 / #8
11/10 Texas A&M 4-1 #22/ #21
11/17 Western Carolina 1-5 (FCS)
11/24 Auburn 1-4
The Tide will face three significant challenges in a row from October 27 through November 10th. LSU will be waiting for them like Andy Jackson was waiting for the British to come. But the Tide is better than all three teams and has the other two at home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the national title game again.
OREGON 6-0, #2 / #2
11/18 at Arizona State 4-1
10/27 Colorado 1-4
11/3 at Southern California 4-1 #11 / #9
11/10 at California 2-4
11/17 Stanford 4-1 #17 / #17
11/24 at Oregon State 4-0 #10 / #14
This team might be better than the one two years ago because their defense is better. I like them big over ASU and Stanford at home. It will come down to whether they can survive the trips to USC and instate rival Oregon State. I think they will.
SOUTH CAROLINA 6-0, #3 / #3
10/13 at Louisiana State 5-1 #9 / #8
10/20 at Florida 5-0 #4 / #6
10/27 Tennessee 3-2
11/10 Arkansas 2-4
11/17 Wofford 5-0 (FCS) #6
11/24 at Clemson 5-1 #16 / #13
They had a very impressive win over Georgia but some big challenges the next two weeks. If they survive them I think they’ll face Alabama in the SEC title game but that’s as far as they go.
FLORIDA 5-0, #4 / #6
10/13 At Vanderbilt 2-3
10/20 South Carolina 6-0 #3 / #3
10/27 Georgia 5-1 #14 / #12
11/3 Missouri 3-3
11/10 Louisiana-Lafayette 4-1
11/17 Jacksonville State 3-2
11/24 at Florida State 5-1 #12 / #11
Their game with South Carolina is huge but traditional rivals Georgia and Florida State will challenge them, as well. The first two games are at home and the third a non-SEC game, so they may renew their rivalry with Alabama in the SEC title game, where they‘ve met 7 times.
WEST VIRGINIA 5-0, #5 / #4
10/13 at Texas Tech 4-1
10/20 Kansas State 5-0 #6 / #5
11/3 Texas Christian 4-1 NR / #23
11/10 at Oklahoma State 2-2
11/17 Oklahoma 3-1 #13 / #10
11/23 at Iowa State 4-1 NR / #25
12/1 Kansas 1-4
The Mountaineers have plenty of challenges coming up and their penchant for basketball scores will keep them out of the national title game. The question is: if they lose a game or two, does that knock Geno Smith out of the Heisman Trophy race?
KANSAS STATE 5-0, #6 / #5
10/13 at Iowa State 4-1 NR / #25
10/20 at West Virginia 5-0 #5 / #4
10/27 Texas Tech 4-1
11/3 Oklahoma State 2-2
11/10 at Texas Christian 4-1 NR / #23
11/17 at Baylor 3-1
12/1 Texas 4-1 #15 / #15
This is a more solid team than West Virginia but they’ve got quite a gauntlet to run: no teams with losing records and no less than six teams with one or no losses. Four of those games will be on the road. They will get nicked up at some point.
NOTRE DAME 6-0, #7 / #7
10/13 Stanford 4-1 #17 / #17
10/20 Brigham Young 4-2
10/27 at Oklahoma 3-1 #13 / #10
11/3 Pittsburgh 2-3
11/10 at Boston College 1-4
11/17 Wake Forest 3-3
11/24 at Southern California 4-1 #11 / #9
They host Stanford and play on the road vs. Oklahoma and Southern California. But this is a good team and Brian Kelly can flat-out coach, whatever you may think of him. In the Irish run the table, can you keep them out of the national title game?
OREGON STATE 4-0, #10 / #14
10/13 at Brigham Young 4-2
10/20 Utah 2-3
10/27 at Washington 3-2
11/3 Arizona State 4-1
11/10 at Stanford 4-1 #17 / #17
11/17 California 2-4
11/24 Oregon 6-0 #2 / #2
12/1 Nicholls State 1-3
At BYU will be tough. Washington can be dangerous and ASU and Stanford are 4-1. Then comes the big one vs. Oregon. They won’t be on this list at the end.
LOUISVILLE 5-0, #18 / #16
10/13 at Pittsburgh 2-3
10/20 South Florida 2-4
10/26 Cincinnati 4-0 #21 / #20
11/3 Temple 2-2
11/10 at Syracuse 2-3
11/24 Connecticut 3-3
11/29 at Rutgers 5-0 #20 / #19
We keep talking about how bad the Big East is and how we still might be able to win it. Imagine if we were undefeated like Louisville, Rutgers and Cincinnati. Would the BCS invite a Big East team?
MISSISSIPPI STATE 5-0, #19 / #18
10/13 Tennessee 3-2
10/20 Middle Tennessee 3-2
10/27 at Alabama 5-0 #1 / #1
11/3 Texas A&M 4-1 #22 / #21
11/10 at Louisiana State 5-1 #9 / #8
11/17 Arkansas 2-4
11/24 at Mississippi 3-3
Another team looking forward to 10/27-11/10. That’s their season. They aren’t traveling to both Alabama and LSU and coming back with wins. And don’t overlook Middle Tennessee State, which beat Georgia Tech by three touchdowns.
RUTGERS 5-0, #20 / # 19
10/13 Syracuse 2-3
10/20 at Temple 2-2
10/27 Kent State 4-1
11/10 Army 1-4
11/17 at Cincinnati 4-0 #21 / #20
11/24 at Pittsburgh 2-3
11/29 Louisville 5-0 #18 / #16
Who are they afraid of? If we can’t beat them they will be 9-0 going into the Cincy game.
CINCINNATI 4-0, #21 / #20
10/13 Fordham 4-2 (FCS)
10/20 at Toledo 5-1
10/26 at Louisville 5-0 #18 / #16
11/3 Syracuse 2-3
11/10 at Temple 2-2
11/17 Rutgers 5-0 #20 / #19
11/23 South Florida 2-4
12/1 at Connecticut 3-3
The seven blocks of granite won’t be playing for Fordham. If they can win at Louisville, the Rutgers game will be a battle of 9-0 teams.
Overall: Is an undefeated record important? Why would these teams be playing West Carolina, Wofford, Jacksonville State, Nicholls State and Fordham in late season games if it weren’t? You can pencil in an SEC team after 6 straight national titles. Even a loss is unlikely to prevent that. The ACC is fresh out of undefeated teams and the Big ten doesn’t even play one. Even and unbeaten Big East team isn’t going in. The opposition for the SEC team is going to come from the Pac 12, (probably Oregon), the Big 12, (more likely Kansas State), or Notre Dame. It will be interesting to see if the Irish mysteriously move ahead of other undefeated teams late in the season.
