The Undefeated

[SWC75]

The BCS still lives- for now. In its 15 years, 30 teams have played for the national championship. 18 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 11 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. 5 had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only three times have we had a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.


It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.


This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now), so for now I will include AAC teams.


Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.


ALABAMA 8-0 (330-78) writers: #1, coaches: #1 BCS: #1
11/2 BYE
11/9 Louisiana State 7-2 (362-191) writers #11, coaches and BCS: #13
11/16 at Mississippi State 4-3 (211-160)
11/23 Chattanooga 6-2 (247-141)
11/30 at Auburn 7-1 (296-164) writers: #8 coaches: #11, BCS: #11
Comment: Suddenly it’s looking like the rivalry game with Auburn might be the biggest hurdle the rest of the way. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton anymore and when they are good the Tide usually wins that game.

OREGON 8-0 (445-135) writers: #2, coaches: #2 BCS: #2
11/2: BYE
11/7 at Stanford 7-1 (261-155) writers #6 and coaches: #7 BCS: #5
11/16 Utah 4-4 (249-206)
11/23 at Arizona 4-2 (220-115)
11/29 Oregon State 6-2 (321-219)
Comments: Statistically, the Ducks are a very impressive team. They have out-scored their opposition by an average of 41 points. But they have a very bumpy ride coming up: three teams with winning records plus the Utah team that upset Stanford, then the Pac 12 title game. Each could be that team that ruins their national title hopes.

OHIO STATE 8-0 (378-143) writers, coaches and BCS: #4
11/2 at Purdue 1-6 (92-241)
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-4 (215-212)
11/23 Indiana 3-4 (296-266)
11/30 at Michigan 6-1 (297-177) writers: #23, coaches: #21, BCS: #21
Comment: Since they were on probation last year they actually have the nation’s longest winning streak with 20 in a row. One red flag: they’ve given up 21 points per game during that span. They’ve won some shoot-outs. But they don’t face a ranked team until Michigan and they are barely ranked. At least that Penn State game planted their flag on the nation’s consciousness.

FLORIDA STATE 7-0 (368-91) writers and coaches: #3, BCS: #3
11/2 Miami 7-0 (277-124) writers: #7, coaches #6, BCS: #7
11/9 at Wake Forest 4-4 (151-190)
11/16 Syracuse 3-4 (188-203)
11/23 Idaho 1-7 (131-361)
11/30 at Florida 4-3 (148-114)
Comment: The Noles gave the most impressive performance of any team this season in their humiliation fellow national championship contender Clemson in their own “Death Valley”. It was Clemson who died. I think they will do the same to Miami and they may wind up doing it twice. I don’t think anybody wants to play this team right now. (Unfortunately, we have to.)

MIAMI 7-0 (277-124) writers: #7, coaches: #6, BCS: #7
11/2 at Florida State 7-0 (368-91) writers and coaches: #3, BCS: #3
11/9 Virginia Tech 6-2 (172-118)
11/16 at Duke 6-2 (263-180)
11/23 Virginia 2-6 (181-234)
11/29 at Pittsburgh 4-3 (199-193)
Comment: Miami’s undefeated record seems tenuous. They aren’t blowing people away and they’ve got some tough games coming up. They barely survived Wake Forest and Duke is no gimmie any more. They will surely be off this list in a week, anyway, so who cares?

BAYLOR 7-0 (447-131) writers and coaches: #5, BCS: #6
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oklahoma 7-1 (248-150) writers: #13, coaches: #9, BCS: #10
11/16 Texas Tech 7-1 (318-169) at Arlington writers & coaches: #15, BCS: #15
11/23 Oklahoma State 6-1 (272-137) writers: #18, coaches #12, BCS: #18
11/30 at TCU 3-5 (184-182)
12/7 Texas 5-2 (228-169)
Comment: The Bears are the most fun team in the country, averaging a nifty 64 points per game is there any way this team could be marches with Oregon, (who is averaging 56) in a bowl game? If they can get by the Oklahomas and Texas Tech, they could run the table.(But suddenly Mack Brown and G-Rob are on a roll.) That would make them a “BCS buster” that’s within the BCS.

 

[dinosaurbbq]

The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now) and Louisville is undefeated and ranked #8, so they have both a good chance of running the table and an outside stance of climbing the rankings high enough to get in, so for now I will include AAC teams.

Louisville not undefeated -- lost to UCF. I'm guessing you caught that in editing and that is why you didn't post their upcoming schedule with the other unbeaten, but forgot to remove it from the phrase above. Unless I'm reading it wrong, which is always a possibility.

 

[SWC75]

The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now) and Louisville is undefeated and ranked #8, so they have both a good chance of running the table and an outside stance of climbing the rankings high enough to get in, so for now I will include AAC teams.

Louisville not undefeated -- lost to UCF. I'm guessing you caught that in editing and that is why you didn't post their upcoming schedule with the other unbeaten, but forgot to remove it from the phrase above. Unless I'm reading it wrong, which is always a possibility.

I should have re-read the opening. I just cut and paste that. Louisville was undefeated when I wrote it.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Basically, for the good of football it needs to be Baylor and Oregon.

 

[Chip]

Basically, for the good of football it needs to be Baylor and Oregon.

I might be in the minority, but this is one year I won't mind if Alabama gets back in there. I find myself very interested in seeing how the Oregon or FSU or Baylor or even Ohio State offense would do against the Alabama defense.

Of the 4, Ohio State would be closest to the ND option of last year. They were a good offense, but not on the level of some of the others. Of course, they have a head coach who knows a thing (or 2) about winning national titles, so I bet it would be more competitive than last year's blowout.

These things almost always work itself out. So who will stumble? They all have a tough road game ahead. Whether it's against a team playing well, or a storied rivalry game where you can often throw out the records.

Should be a fun finish.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I might be in the minority, but this is one year I won't mind if Alabama gets back in there. I find myself very interested in seeing how the Oregon or FSU or Baylor or even Ohio State offense would do against the Alabama defense.

I would agree with this, if not for the fact that 1) they've been in it already each of the past few seasons and 2) they made it in with losses, which is a standard I think they get special treatment for.

And that really chaps my hide.

 

[Millhouse]

I might be in the minority, but this is one year I won't mind if Alabama gets back in there. I find myself very interested in seeing how the Oregon or FSU or Baylor or even Ohio State offense would do against the Alabama defense.

Of the 4, Ohio State would be closest to the ND option of last year. They were a good offense, but not on the level of some of the others. Of course, they have a head coach who knows a thing (or 2) about winning national titles, so I bet it would be more competitive than last year's blowout.

These things almost always work itself out. So who will stumble? They all have a tough road game ahead. Whether it's against a team playing well, or a storied rivalry game where you can often throw out the records.

Should be a fun finish.

As long as Bama ends up playing Oregon or FSU, it could end up being a shootout. I'm basing that all on Johnny Football. Alabama's offense is great and entertaining when challenged. I hate admitting it but the last few years, their offense has been really good. You don't really notice because their defense is so good - their per play averages are great, they just don't have enough field in front of them to roll up crazy totals

 

[Chip]

I would agree with this, if not for the fact that 1) they've been in it already each of the past few seasons and 2) they made it in with losses, which is a standard I think they get special treatment for.

And that really chaps my hide.

I should qualify that statement by saying I don't mind seeing Alabama vs one of those offenses if they are undefeated. If 1 loss Alabama gets in over undefeated Baylor (the only real possibility), that would be extremely disappointing.

If 1 loss Alabama gets in over undefeated Ohio State, that would be worth it to see the look on the face of each individual Ohio State fan. They should put in a slideshow, and I'll take the day off, buy a 30 pack, and sit and watch. Maybe that means I need to get a life, but note that I did say I'd have a 30 pack.

 

[SWC75]

I might be in the minority, but this is one year I won't mind if Alabama gets back in there. I find myself very interested in seeing how the Oregon or FSU or Baylor or even Ohio State offense would do against the Alabama defense.

Of the 4, Ohio State would be closest to the ND option of last year. They were a good offense, but not on the level of some of the others. Of course, they have a head coach who knows a thing (or 2) about winning national titles, so I bet it would be more competitive than last year's blowout.

These things almost always work itself out. So who will stumble? They all have a tough road game ahead. Whether it's against a team playing well, or a storied rivalry game where you can often throw out the records.

Should be a fun finish.

The 2009 Oregon team lost to Ohio State 17-26 in the Rose Bowl. The 2010 Oregon team lost to Auburn 19-22 in the national championship game. The 2001 Oregon team lost to LSU 27-40 during the regular season. Just sayin'.

I think the two best teams in the country are Alabama and Florida State.

 

[Chip]

The 2009 Oregon team lost to Ohio State 17-26 in the Rose Bowl. The 2010 Oregon team lost to Auburn 19-22 in the national championship game. The 2001 Oregon team lost to LSU 27-40 during the regular season. Just sayin'.

I think the two best teams in the country are Alabama and Florida State.

Good point. So either..

FSU's offense vs Alabama, provided FSU doesn't pull a munson (FSU) and lose one of those remaining games. That game in the Swamp is probably more mental than physical.

Baylor's offense vs Alabama, provided Baylor can get past defensive guru Greg Robinson (really has been quite the turnaround for that defense).

Urban Meyer vs Alabama, in which case I hope both teams somehow lose.