Then and Now

[SWC75]

This is my annual post-season review of what I wrote in my pre-season preview of SU football. The italicized sections are from my preview, which I posted last August, before the Central Connecticut game.


The Season

We want this era’s Nebraska game, Penn State game and West Virginia game. We want to expect a winning season every year, which now means we’d go to a bowl game every year.
Well, we got this era’s Nebraska game. We are still waiting for the rest.

2015 vs. 2016
Scott Shafer went 4-8 in his last year. Dino Babers went 4-8 in his first year. Here are the common opponents and our results against them:

Opponent Shafer Babers Advantage
Wake Forest 30-17 9-28 Shafer +32
Pittsburgh 20-23 61-76 Shafer +12
Florida State 21-45 14-45 Shafer +7
Louisville 17-41 28-62 Shafer +10
Clemson 27-37 0-54 Shafer +44
NC State 29-42 20-35 Shafer +2
Boston College 20-17 28-20 Babers +5
Total 164-222 160-320 Shafer +102

Opponent Babers1 Babers2 Advantage
Wake Forest 9-28 43-64 Babers1 +2
Pittsburgh 61-76 27-24 Babers2 +18
Florida State 14-45 24-27 Babers2 +28
Louisville 28-62 10-56 Babers1 -12
Clemson 0-54 27-24 Babers2 +57
NC State 20-35 25-33 Babers2 +7
Boston College 28-20 14-42 Babers1 +5
Total 160-320 170-270 Babers2 +60

We did improve, incrementally, but did not perform as well as we did in Scott Shafer’s last year. I think both of Baber’s years have been a bit more difficult that Shafer’s last year. We had three legitimate national title contenders in the division in 2016 and this year several programs that had been rebuilding began to blossom: there were no easy games at all. Shafer also had both LSU and Clemson at home and those were our two highest rated opponents that season. Still, we seem to be spinning our wheels and we need to see some traction next year.


Last year’s team had three anomalies. Scott Shafer’s favorite play was a punt. Dino Babers hates to punt. We punted 67 times in 2015. We punted 80 times in 2016. Babers doesn’t like to run his quarterback: they get injured too much. Shafer had quarterback runs as part of his offense. In 2015, Eric Dungey, Zach Mahoney, Terrell Hunt and Austin Wilson carried the ball 134 times. That includes 21 sacks so that’s 113 actual running plays, (some of which were scrambles). In 2016 Dungey, Mahoney and Wilson had 171 carries, which minus 38 sacks is 133 actual running plays, (including scrambles). Our offense in 2015 ranked 118th in the country with 320 yards a game and 77th in the country with 27.3 points per game. Our offense in 2016 improved to 42nd in the country with 441 yards per game – but fell to 90th in the country with 25.7 points per game.

The main reason for these anomalies was that we had no running game to speak of. That meant that we couldn’t gain first downs in short yardage situations and that we had trouble punching the ball into the end zone in the “red zone” where the area the defense has to cover shrinks. I remember seeing our quarterback in an “empty” backfield on the 1 yard line as we had no goal line package. That gave him five receivers but they were covered by 7 players and had only 11 yards to find an open space. Strangely, Jordan Fredericks, who, as a freshman had led the team with 607 yards rushing at 5.7 a clip was third string hand only got the ball only 28 times. He managed 5.0 yards per carry. He’s now gone, having transferred out. His replacement as feature back was Dontae Strickland, who gained 566 yards but at only 3.5 yards per carry. The alternative was speedy but slight Moe Neal, who ran 42 yards for a score against Colgate on his first carry and averaged 5.3 on 68 carries. But he wasn’t strong enough to be a feature back and will apparently be more of a runner/receiver hybrid this year, a role he seems more suited to.

There was a huge reduction in the number of punts in 2017 from 80 last year to 58 this year. The opposition punted 72 times. It was all about our third and fourth down success. We had 111 successful conversions on those downs to 61 for our opposition. That’s 50 more extended possessions.

Our quarterbacks had 174 carries this year, minus 32 sacks for a net 147 carries, up from 113 last year. I think it’s just a coach adjusting to his available talent. It’s Dungey’s instinct to run when there is an opening and he has said he feels he can protect Eric better on a designed run than on a scramble. Thinking back, his injury against Central Michigan in 2015 was in the pocket. His season ending injury against Louisville was a scramble. His season ending injury against Clemson the next year, per Dino came on a missed handoff where he decided to keep the ball and follow the running back into the line. This year, it came on an interception. So he doesn’t seem to have been hurt on designed running plays.

The need to get rushing yard from the quarterback comes from the lack of production from the running back positon. That improved marginally this year Strickland and Neal totaled 970 yards on 220 carries , a 4.4 average and 5TDs. Last year they totaled 923 yards on 230 carries, (4.0) and 6Tds. That still isn’t good enough, especially since all those sideline passes should open up the middle of the field to be gashed by the running game. Our line has to mature and be upgraded and we may need new personal toting the ball to make real gains. Until then, having the quarterback fake the handoff and keep it is our only alternative- and the only element of deception our running attack can have with a single RB back there. A combination of Strickland as the primary running back and Neal has a Lenny Moore type hybrid runner/receiver would be more effective and allow the quarterback to concentrate on passing.

The trend of producing yards more than point continued. We were 25th in the country in yards produced
with 456.3 yards per game but 76th, (of 130 teams) in the country with 27.4 ppg. The 65th team in the country scored 28.8 so we are in an era where we have to score 30 points to win an average game. We did that 3 times in 12 games. A big reason was that we couldn’t get turnovers. We went 8 games without a defensive turnover. On the year we were -12 in turnovers. As a comparison our 2001 team was outgained on the year but went 10-3 because, (thanks to Dwight Freeney) we were +15 in turnovers. This year was the flip side of that. We also got no kick or returns for scores. Evan Foster got a pick 6 vs. Central Michigan. We got one blocked kick for a score- but it was a 2 point PAT play. So the offense got little help on the scoreboard from defense and special teams. But a lack of explosive plays was an issue, especially in the passing game. In Dino’s second year at Eastern Illinois, they completed 357 passes for 53 touchdowns. In his second year at Bowling Green they completed 398 passes for 47 touchdowns. In his second year at Syracuse we completed 320 passes for 20 touchdowns. The average per catch dropped form 13.7 in 2013 to 12.4 in 2015 to 11.1 this year. Obviously we aren’t going to put up EIU numbers or BG numbers in the Atlantic Division of the ACC but it’s clear we aren’t throwing deep as much here as Dinos teams did in his last two stops. Either that or they are getting a lot less YAC. At EIU, they averaged 5.1 yards per rush and scored 32 TDs. At BG it was 4.6 and 34 TDs. This year it was 4.0 and 16TDs. Again a talent upgrades both up front and around them is probably the answer here.

Baber’s schemes on both sides of the ball seem heavily dependent on the lines. That’s nothing new in football but it’s a problem here because we don’t tend to have dominant lines here. We get occasional superior individuals like Justin Pugh or Art Jones but we don’t get entire lines of players like that. Last season Coach Babers said on his show that he wants more strength on the offensive line to get his running game going. Matt Park interpreted strength as ‘size’ and quoted the heights and weights of our next opponent as what we have to shoot for. I looked up their heights and weights of our starting offensive linemen and they were actually bigger than that. (I’d actually prefer lighter, quicker linemen: the Denver Broncos have had great success with 280 pounders for years. If you get there furstest, you’ll have the moistest.) I called in about that and Dino said it’s not about heights and weights. He wants both lower body strength and also quickness. That’s an infrequent combination and guys with both those qualities are a lot more likely to wind up at Ohio State or Alabama than Syracuse.

Defensively, he wants all the pressure he needs on the other team’s backfield to come from the front four so the ‘back seven’ and cover passes and converge on running plays. Scott Shafer was a “bring the house” guy. By the end of the season, Babers, (through his DC, Brian Ward), was starting to use more and more blitzes to get defensive pressure. I think we need to maximize our offensive versatility and deception to make up for the fact that not every one of our linemen will be a Justin Pugh. And I think we need to be willing to “bring the house” on defense to disrupt the offense and create big plays, even if we might give some up as well. But apparently, we will continue to go with the straight-ahead, one back running game, hoping the pass will open it up. If we use more receivers and throw to all parts of the field that might happen. And we will continue to circle the wagons and converge on the play on defense. I hope it works better in year 2 of the Babers Era than it did in year 1.

Our young offensive line grew up as the season progressed. Their run blocking got better. Their pass blocking was inconsistent but not terrible. We’ve got some 4 star types coming in for next year so They could show considerable improvement next year. For the second straight year, we didn’t spread the ball around enough. Our top two receivers in 2016 had 94 and 90 catches. The third place guy had 48. This year it was 105 and 89. The third place guy had 33. At EIU in 2013 the lead receiver had 123, the second place guy 85, the third place guy 51, fourth 48, fifth 31. At BG in 2015 it was 94, 85, 72, 56. There wil always be a #1 option and a #2 option but we need to build up the other options so the defesne ahs to cover all of them. Again, maturity or a talent upgrade is the key.

The front seven on defense performed very well most of the year until the length of the schedule and the quality of the opposition wore them down. We’ll have to replace all the linebackers and that’s a big concern but the biggest question is whether our best lineman, Chris Slayton, will come back for his senior year or test the NFL waters. Brian Ward became something of a Shafer convert and brought pressure many times during the season. Unfortunately injuries to the safety positon made us vulnerable in the backfield and we gave up far too many long scoring plays. On virtually every replay, the safety seemed to be out of position. If Antwan Cordy could finally have a healthy season next year, it could make a huge difference. I remember when the Colts were contending for Super Bowls, the quality of their defense often depended on whether Bob Sanders, their star safety, was healthy. Cordy could be our Bob Sanders.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Sanders \

 

[SWC75]

The Players

QB: Eric Dungey is clearly the incumbent. He replaced Terrell Hunt 9 plays into the season opener as a true freshman and has never surrendered it, despite a series of injuries which ended his season early in each of his first two years. And that’s the problem: he’s a ticking time bomb. He’s built himself up to 6-4 222 but that doesn’t protect his head and he seems to have had multiple concussions… When healthy, he’s, (ironically) a heady QB who knows how to run the offense, is a good leader, throws a catchable ball, (I don’t think he has NFL arm strength), and is athletic enough and courageous enough to run the ball, sometimes not in his own best interests. That’s why having a good back-up is a necessity.

SU is blessed there. Zach Mahoney was recruited almost as an afterthought by the previous regime as a JUCO transfer. He started the season as a 5th string QB, basically an emergency guy. But a series of injuries, (including a DQ of a QB due to concussions), put him in the #2 job and when Dungey got leveled by Central Michigan…Later in the season, he took over again when Dungey had a season ending injury against Louisville and the started the next week against #1 ranked Clemson. … Last season he again had to take over for the last three games. Zach has a stronger arm than Dungey but less accurate. He was recruited for an offense where the QB ran so he is mobile but Dungey does better throwing on the run … In two years he’s passed for 15TDs vs. 6 int while attempting 252 passes and ran for 4 scores while Dungey, in 531 attempts threw 33TD passes vs. 12 int. and ran for 11 scores. So we are blessed with a competent, experienced back-up QB, something not a lot of schools can say. It’s a good thing we can say it.

Rex Culpepper, (son of Brad Culpepper, who played for 9 years as a DT in the NFL, 6-3 221) was one of the last touted recruits of the Shafer Era. Babers had a chance to pass on him but decided he had good potential and completed his recruitment. At one time he was considered the likely successor to Dungey but he seems to have faded into the background.

Dungey won a lot of respect with his gutty performances this year and is quite a team leader. He was far from a perfect quarterback for this offense. Aside from his tendency to take off an run with the ball, Eric tends to focus on his top two receivers and can often miss other receivers who are open. He tends to throw sideline passes short and to the inside of the receiver where the defender can get at it. He threw interceptions on the first possession of every road game against highly ranked teams. He wound up with only 14 TD passes to 11 interceptions. Jimmy Garoppolo had 53tds and 9 interceptions in Babers second year at EIU.Matt Johnson had 46 and 8 in Dino’s second year at BG. Again, they were not in the Atlantic division of the ACC but 14/9 is not a Dino Baber offense.

Dungey again got injured and had to be replaced by Mahoney, who was at his best in the first half against Wake Forest, throwing 3TD passes and leading the team to a 38-24 lead. It was the bets the SU offense looked all season. Inexplicably, he was totally ineffective in the second half, when we scored 5 points or at Louisville, where we scored 10. He was then replaced by Culpepper, not because Rex was better but because Rex had three more years of eligibility left and Mahoney had none. Rex looked as bad as Mahoney against Louisville but was somewhat sharper against Boston College. We still scored only 14 points.

Dungey will give it another go next year, with Culpepper available as a back-up. But Tommy DeVito is the future at this positon. He is the one who will really make the Babers offense sing.


RB: Babers soured on Fredericks and made him third string behind Strickland and slender recruit Moe Neal. Fredericks ran for 139 yards at 5.0 per pop. Strickland ran for 566 but at only 3.5/carry. Neal, who had good straight ahead speed but “a high school body” according to Babers, gained 357 yards at 5.3 per carry. Perkins never even carried the ball. Fredericks transferred out. Baber’s staff brought in some more promising RBs but reports from camp are that Babers remains ‘in love’ with Strickland as a his running back, leaving fans to expect more of the same from last year. And more of the same isn’t going to get it done.

Strickland (5-11 207) did have one good game last year- against South Florida, when he ran for 127 yards on 30 carries (4.2) but didn’t score. The rest of the year he was 132/439 (3.3). The RB calls out the blocking assignments in Baber’s offense and Strickland was supposed to be a whiz at that. He caught 21 passes for 132 yards (6.3). Reports from camp are that he’s looking stronger and faster. It would help if he ran the ball in more than one type of play. Hopefully there will be more games like the South Florida game.

Moe Neal is 5-11 182, (up from 169 last year). He’s got great speed but doesn’t really have the body of a feature back. He’s better off as more of a hybrid player, running the ball and catching passes. He was in fact, moved to that kind of positon but then moved back to RB, suggesting that the new recruits did not impress and might be redshirted. Moe had a handful of plays where he burst through the defense and out-ran people for big plays but was not able to consistently gain ground. Moe might be able to help us as a kick returner.

The freshmen are an interesting group but I don’t know how much we’ll see of them this year. The key one would appear to be Markenzy Pierre (5-11 214) from Florida who ran for 2537 yards (10.4 yards a pop), and 31TDs last year. Looking at his film, he looks impressive, with power, good but conservative moves, an awareness of what’s going on around him and enough speed to out-run high school players. I think some of those long TD runs would be 10-15 yarders in college but I have no prejudice against 10-15 yard runs.

Chris Elmore is an interesting specimen. He’s 6-0 280 and could provide some real help on the defensive line. But Babers has been trying him out as a fullback or “H” back, thinking he could help more on offense.

Strickland was marginally better this year, (3.8 yards per carry) but got fewer carriers, thanks to a last season injury. He wound up our third leading rusher with 482 yards on 128 carries for 4TDs. I saw more and better moves, better use of blocking and 43 yard TD run against Wake Forest that was a thing of beauty. He burst through the middle, beat the defenders to the outside and motored down the sideline for the score. If we’d have a more mature and better offensive line he might have had a big year, which means he might have one next year.

That said, Moe Neal looked good late in the season, replacing the injured Strickland. He was just quicker through the line and had greater break-away potential. He caught Strickland in the last game to wind up with 488 yards in 92 carries. Ironically, he only scored once but his longest play was 71 yards, when he got caught by a world class sprinter who somehow wound up on Central Michigan’s roster. He also had a 47 yarder vs. Wake and a 28 yarder vs. BC. He no longer has a “high school body” and can bounce off tacklers. He also had receptions for 47 and 52 yards, which is why I think he’d be best in a hybrid role. Strickland and Neal at least give us a veteran pair of backs, even though neither one of them is likely to be an All-American.

Markenzy Pierre got an early shot gaining 46 yards in 9 carries vs. Central Connecticut. But he also fumbles and Babers spent much of his next show stressing “taking care of the football” and praising Chris Elmore for doing so. Pierre played briefly against Central Michigan and not again until the blow-out loss to Louisville. In his high school highlight film Pierre seemed bigger than either Strickland or Neal and to have more speed and moves than Strickland. I was hoping he would be groomed to take over a weak position. Instead he’s a distant third. Elmore proved to be a sort “Refrigerator Perry”, operating out of the backfield either as a lead blocker or has a slow but powerful runner. He seemed to almost waddle to the line and was typically hit by 2-3 guys when he got there. In the BC game all 280 pounds of him was pancaked at the line and he wound up on his back. I think he could best help us at another positon. Pierre wound up with 89 yards on 25 carries (3.6). Elmore had 56 on 23 carries (2.4).


REC: Steve Ismael, (6-2 209), was thought to be our ace receiver going into last season. In his first two years, under Scott Shafer’s system, he caught 66 balls for 985 yards, (14.9) and 10TDs. With AET, he became the “possession” receiver, (if you don’t have possession, you aren’t a receiver), with 48 catches for 559 yards (11.6) and only 1 score. He figures to move back into the quarterback’s cross-hairs this year- unless someone else emerges.

If one does, that will probably be either Jamal Custis or one of two players we have named Devin Butler. Custis is big (6-5 227: there’s been a thought of using him as a tight end) with unusual speed for his size but he’s never quite put it all together. Having to learn a different offense every year he’s been here probably didn’t help. Halfway through his career he has 5 catches for 22 yards. But reports are he’s in the thick of the battle for the other WR slot. Butler played QB in high school but projected as a WR in college. He also has good size, (6-3 196) and athletic ability. He had two catches for 14 yards last year.

Erv Phillips is a converted running back, (who would also make a fine traditional halfback), who plays in the “slot” these days. Last year he caught almost as many balls as AET: 90 for 822 yards (9.1) and 6TDs. He’ll have a similar role this year but is unlikely to top those numbers. Erv is not big (5-11 181) but he has some speed and great moves. But he did not prove to be a big play threat last year. He’s more of a dump-off guy if the deep threat is covered. He’ll get you more first downs than touchdowns.

Ismael made a huge comeback, breaking Amba Etta Tawo’s school record with 105 catches for 1,347 yards, (12.8 yards per catch) and 7scores. He didn’t have AEYT’s break-away ability: 94c 1,482 yards (15.8) 14TDs but it was a great season. He led the country in receptions much of the year and wound up #2, one short of the leader. And, despite not being AET, he was #3 in yardage.

Phillips, a converted running back, was second to AET with 90 receptions in 2016 and second it Ismael with 89 in 2017, (5th in the country). Those two years propelled him to the top of the school’s all-time standings for receptions with 223.

Both were seniors. How will we replace them? We didn’t have to find a replacement for AET: we already had Ismael. Butler was our third leading receiver but was not impressive. He had 33 catches for 327 yards, (only 9.9) for just 1TD. He had many key drops. Ravian Pierce provided a passing threat at tight end for the first time in years with 29 catches for 263 yards and 4TDs but he had trouble controlling his emotions and was in an out of the doghouse. He was a JUCO transfer so has only one more year to get his act together. Custis was a big target and was wide open on a 47 yarder vs. Florida State but had only 7 other catches all year. The true replacements for Ismael might be someone who didn’t play much this year or is being recruited.


OL: McGloster (6-7 309) is the one senior and thus the leader of the group. He can play but we don’t have 3-4 of him. Starting guard Aaron Roberts ripped up a knee in off-season workouts and won’t be able to play at all this year. Conway played a lot last year (6-6 296). Foster (6-3 314) is a former walk-on who played 6 games at center last year due to injuries. Darney (6-3 285) has played mostly on the punt team. (Late Update: Foster will not be returning to the team after a knee injury last spring didn’t heal.)

Byrne (6-5 299) was the guy Foster replaced at center after Colin replaced the injured Jason Emerich. We had three 500 yard offense games when he was in there, per the SU website. (He snapped the ball really well.) . Clausman (6-3 331) played mostly on the PAT team. Duerig (6-3 321) did the same and also played on the punt team.

Babers said he wanted offensive linemen with lower body strength and mobility. He wasn’t happy with what he had last year. Thus the development of the freshmen will be significant.

Coaches love tall offensive linemen. Backs can hide behind them before making their cut and defenders can’t jump over them to block passes. Mike Clark, a 6-8 292 redshirt freshman qualifies. He was a 3 star recruit out of Pennsylvania. Liam O’Sullivan is a booked at 6-8 270. He is a redshirt from Illinois with an 80 inch wingspan. He was a 3 star and the #116 best tackle prospect. Babers started recruiting where he knows the players: in the Midwest. His first three SU recruits were Aaron Serviais, Sam Heckel and O’Sullivan. Heckel, (6-4 292) a 3 star from Wisconsin, also red-shirted. He had been rated the #48 tackle by ESPN. He’s said to be the front-runner to replace Roberts. Serviais (6-6 305), is another Wisconsin red shirt. He’s in the mix at center this year, next to Heckel. He was wearing a “boot” and saw limited action early in fall practice but Coach Babers said of him and the DE’s Jake Pickard and Josh Black, (see below): "All those guys are OK. They're not injuries. Some of those guys are just precautionary stuff. If a guy's got a swollen ankle, you put a boot on it. It's not like it's broken or anything. So those guys should be good."

It’s hard for a fan to evaluate an offensive line individually. This group was far from dominant but did seem to improve as the season went on. They had too many false starts early in the year, (I recall Servais’ name being mentioned a lot). The run blocked improved the most. Our quarterbacks seemed to be on the run a lot. McGloster was the only senior so we will get 4 of 5 positons back. We’ll also get injured players like Aaron Roberts and Liam Sullivan back as well as some recruits more highly rated than normal for SU. This group can’t help but get better.

DL: We can put together a decent front line but with no real depth. And these days, most teams alternate their linemen so there are really eight “starters”, (if they are playing a 4-3 rather than a 3-4). We don’t have eight interchangeable guys as many of our opponents will have. We are better positioned at tackle than end, where big juniors Chris Slayton (6-4 315) and Kayton Samuels (6-0 319) share one spot and sophomore McKinley Williams (6-4 292), who was responsible for those transfers in search of playing time and he rocketed up the depth charts last year will share the other tackle positon with ex-linebacker Kenneth Ruff, who has built himself up to 6-1 284. Black (6-3 250) and Pickard (6-5 250) are listed at one end spot, (hopefully one of them will be ready when the season begins). Kendall Coleman (6-3 240) who looked good as a freshman last year. His back-up is Brandon Berry (6-4 223). That makes us pretty small at that spot. That’s 6 sophomores and 2 juniors at those spots, so there’s not a lot of experience, either, although having all those young players bodes well for the future of this unit- if we can keep them around, that is.

Late Update: Babers has secured the services of JUCO transfer Alton Robinson (6-4 245) Cuse.com: “Made 67 tackles (31 solo) and ranked third nationally with 14 sacks ... Also forced three fumbles ... Six multi-sack games .” Syracuse.com: “Robinson signed with Texas A&M in February 2016, but did not enroll after being charged with felony robbery later that month. The case was downgraded to two misdemeanor charges, which were dismissed this July because of an uncooperative witness…Syracuse athletic director John Wildhack said in a statement that the school conducted a "thorough and comprehensive" review of Robinson and that the player has shown "deep regret and remorse" for his actions.” He’ll have deeper remorse if he does it again. So will we. He was rated three stars and the No. 27 weak-side defensive end in his cycle by 247Sports.

This group remained reasonably healthy and exceeded expectations. Slayton had a great year. Robinson was a great addition. Coleman was performing very well until he got hurt. Williams showed promise. If no one leaves early, we have a very solid unit. Now we have to recruit to create depth and give these guys a blow from time to time and to produce their eventual replacements.

LB: The figures to be the best unit on the team. Zaire Franklin (6-0 236) had been our middle linebacker and captain of the defense since his freshman year. He’s the best player on the team. Parris Bennett (6-0 216), has played next to him for most of that time and nearly as well. Jonathan Thomas (6-1 209) is undersized but quick and has an instinct for making plays.

Their back-ups in the pre-season depth chart are 6-2 226 Andrew Armstrong, 6-2 215 Ryan Guthrie and converted safety 6-2 202 Kielan Whitner. Armstrong is seen as the eventual successor to Franklin and has been put under his tutelage. He is said to be bulking up for the role and wants to wind up over 230 after being 217 last year. Guthrie is a 3 star JUCO transfer. Whitner gives Babers the option of a sort of nickel back to cover a slot receiver, which is why he’s behind Thomas, who has that responsibility.

And it was the best unit on the team. Bennett had a huge year. Leading the team with 115 tackles, 11 for a loss. Franklin was second with 85 and 5.5TFLs. He was also the captain and the team’s emotional leader. Thomas had 50 and 4. I prefer to remember them for all the games they kept us in against ranked and favored opponents: LSU, NC State, Pitt, Clemson, Miami, Florida State than for those last three games when the whole team was gassed.

The big three were out there for the fast majority of plays. Next year they will be out there for none, as they were all seniors. It’s thought that their replacements will be both bigger and faster and may someday be an upgrade but they will be young. Armstrong played a lot and will probably replace Franklin. Guthrie made some big plays. And a lot of people are excited about this guy:

Tyrell Richards (6-4 212) is a true freshman. He was the #4 overall Canadian prospect. ESPN gave him 3 stars and rated him the #98 OLB. “The Orange coaching staff thinks it has a steal in the under-recruited Richards.” Per Syracuse.com. Richards’ high school coach: "They think Tyrell will be an NFL player, They think Tyrell's a four star that no one really knows about." Nunes: “Richards comes in as the type of linebacker Babers will most likely be looking for going forward. Taller (than we had), but slimmer -- could play safety in a lot of systems. The key, obviously, is speed, plus an ability to cover in space. While the team’s current linebackers did an admirable job of adjusting to the Tampa-2 and finding ways to make their skillset work for what was needed, they are predominantly pass-rushers.”

Of course you never know about “under the radar” types and high school coaches tend to promote their players but Richards could turn out to be a gem. Still, these guys need to respect their elders because Franklin, Bennett and Thomas distinguished themselves in their careers here, despite playing for bad teams.


DB: Antwan Cordy is not big (5-8 181) but you feel every pound when he hits you and he was said to have the best instincts of any of our D-backs. With him out, Babers played Daivon Ellison, who is the exact same size and hits just as hard but probably isn’t quite as good an all-around D-back. But he’s the perfect back-up for Cordy. Sophomores Scoop Bradshaw (5-11 167) and Chris Frederick (5-11 193) were listed as the starting CBs in the preseason depth chart. They got to play as freshmen due to the injuries. Another sophomore, Evan Foster (6-0 213) was listed ahead of junior Rodney Williams (5-10 191) at strong safety, probably because of his linebacker like size. It’s interesting that Dowels and Hudson didn’t make the two deep. I don’t think they got worse. I think they have more competition.

Devin M. Butler is our ‘other’ Devin Butler, a grad transfer from Notre Dame who might have bene covering the offensive Devin Butler, who had a couple of catches in that game. Butler injured his foot last year and then had a minor scrape with the law, (a bar room confrontation with the police), before leaving ND. Jordan Martin, (6-3 206- great size for a D-back), is another grad transfer, from Toledo. “He racked up 74 total tackles, including 4.5 for loss, 11 pass deflections, two forced fumbles and an interception in three seasons” per Syracuse.com. Another former Notre Damer, Mykelti Williams, went to junior college and then wanted to come here but was “not admitted by the university”.

Bailey has Frederick and Bradshaw at the corners ahead of Dowels and Butler. He has Cordy and Foster as the safeties with Rodney Williams as a back-up but Jordan Martin, not Daivon Ellison. Dowels and Williams began last year as starters and I assumed Butler, coming from Notre Dame, would be one. I guess that indicates a talent upgrade.

Cordy again went down in the first game and his absence was huge. We gave up big plays all year and in virtually every one of them if you looked at the replay, the safeties were a non-factor. Martin got hurt as well. We also lost Ellison to disciplinary issues. Foster did become our third leading tackler with 64, 7 for a loss. Butler didn’t make much of an impression for a guy from Notre Dame. Bradshaw and Frederick made some plays but also got burned occasionally.

Next year we need to get a full year out of Cordy and Ellison. Butler and Martin were seniors so we’ll get some new blood into the mix. I’m anxious to see these two guys play:

6-2 175 true freshman Eric Coley is the son of Vincent Reynolds, Baber’s DT coach. He moved from Michigan and starred for -M last year, rushing for 1295 yards at 10 yards a pop and 216 a game and 17 TDs. Defensively, registered 70 tackles, including eight for a loss, five sacks and one fumble recovery. He was rated the #1 ‘athlete’, (meaning multi-positon speed guy), in the state and #51 in the country. Like seemingly every SU recruit, he was given 3 stars by the recruiting experts but this guy could be somebody special. I saw his highlights on TV every Friday night and he was running away from everybody. I couldn’t wait to see him in an SU uniform. I kinda wish they’d give him a shot on the offensive side of the ball.

Ifeatu Melifonwu (6-3 195) has a similar resume and even better numbers than Coley. Cuse.com: “As a senior captain, rushed for 1,876 yards and 25 touchdowns, while intercepting two passes on defense.” He is, of course, a 3 star and rated the #116 safety in the class by 247. We managed to recruit him away from Jim Harbaugh of Michigan.


Kicking: Then there’s the kicking game, or if you prefer “special teams”:

Murphy has been the placekicker for three years. He was excellent the first year: “Made 13-of-16 (.813) field goals and 11-of-12 extra points ... Also handled kickoff duties for the Orange and recorded nine touchbacks .” He was solid the next season: “Connected on 16-of-22 (.727) field goals and was a perfect 37-for-37 on PATs” but shakey last year: “Converted 10-of-18 (.556) field goals... Fifth on SU’s single-season record list for most PATs made by kick (36) and tied for sixth in attempts (39) ... Kicked off 53 times with 11 touchbacks ...” (all stats from Cuse.com). Murphy didn’t do the kick-offs in 2015, indicating a level of dissatisfaction at that point. But Babers put him back on that job.

Sterling Hofrichter was a classic example of a small guy with a big leg last year. He’s only 5-9 196, (a pretty good weight for 5-9). He punted for an average of 42.7 yards. He had to punt 77 times and 23 of them went 50+ yards, with a high of 65. He only had one blocked because he used the so called “rugby” punt most of the time, running to the side and kicking the ball on the run, something that takes quite a bit of talent.

Murphy had a good year overall, kicking 20 of 27 field goals but missing a huge one, (which may have bene partially blocked) against Florida State. But he had 4 of them, including a 53 yarder, in rainy conditions at Miami. Hofrichter kicked 2 of 3 himself, so we were 22 of 30 overall: 73%. Not great but good. The same could be said of Hofrichter’s punting. He averaged 43.2 yards for the year. This consisted of a 46.4 average in the first 5 games, a 37.3 average in the next 3 games and a 43.2 average in the remaining 4 games.

The kick returners will come from the ‘skill positon’, (as if other positons don’t require skill), players: the running backs, receivers and defensive backs. Sean Riley returned the two punts Brisley Estime didn’t return. Brisley led the nation with 17.7 yards per return. The diminutive Riley (5-8 155) Riley returned his two punts 30 yards, which shows promise. But Brisley at 5-9 183 was a much stronger man and I always felt he had a chance to break one. Riley is more of a water-sprite likely to go down when hit. I’d like to see Nykeim Johnson get a chance at this spot. He’s not much bigger than Riley (5-8 163) but off his film I think he’s faster and more explosive. What I don’t want is to go back to punts being seen as an opportunity to make a fair catch and nothing more than that, which it was for years before Brisley arrived here.

Our kickoff returns have been a train wreck at the 20 yard line for years. I don’t understand why we can’t get them properly blocked. Riley returned 53 of them for 20.66 yards per attempt. Estime tried it 10 times for 18.3 yards. It may not matter who returns them if they get swarmed over at the 20 every time. Nykeim could help us here and Moe Neal had some big returns in high school. I wouldn’t mind seeing Eric Coley or Ifeatu Melifonwu a shot here.

Sean Riley actually did a good job with kick-off returns. He never took one all the way but did have a 64 yarder and several others to midfield or nearly so. He wound up averaging 24.8 yards per return. Punts were more problematic as he had a tendency to let the ball bounce by him and cost us yardage. Dino convinced him to be more aggressive and that stopped in mid-season. He wound up averaging 7.6 yards per return, including a 34 yarder. As with the rest of our kicking team efforts, Riley was good but not great.

We used to block a lot of kicks. That seemed to go away when we started fair catching all the punts. A team struggling to compete with superior opposition needs to use the kicking game to make big plays. It’s not just about hoping them miss and securing possession. A lot of that comes from the attitude of the players – you have to want to break it big or block it- and a lot of that comes from the attitude of the coaching staff. I note Babers brought in Justin Lustig, the Nation DII coach of the year, to be his special teams, (and running backs) coach. Maybe he’s a guy who will look to make big plays in the kicking game.

We did seem to take a more aggressive attitude toward blocking kicks, although it didn’t reach fruition until the blocked extra point and return against Wake Forest. Hopefully there is more to come.

Then there’s the fact that this is year 2 in the Baber’s system on both offense and defense. Not only are the players likely to perform more efficiently, (and, of course faster), but the coaches hopefully will be able to call for more things for them to do. We’ll see the whole playbook this year. I don’t think we saw it last year.

I don’t think that was the whole playbook, although there was more of it. Most of the passes are still up and down the sideline. We don’t exploit the middle of the field much, although as Ravian Pierce develops, he might get the ball more. I think we’ll see more from the running game as the line and running backs get upgraded. We will have to because once DeVito takes over for Dungey those quarterback runs will become less frequent.

For all but the powerhouses, a college football team has something in common with a Triple A baseball team, (or maybe my Mets): the team you see at the beginning of the season is not the team you’ll see at the end of the season. Young players will improve, of course. But players will also get injured. Our equivalent of calling someone up from Double A is to put in an inferior or less experienced back-up, (who will also likely not be as strong or athletic because he hasn’t had as much time in the conditioning program). The powerhouses can replace players and not lose much. They might even find out that the next guy is better than they older player they had starting. That’s unlikely to happen here. Typically, we are a weaker team by the end of the season rather than a stronger one. You can project what you think might or could happen at the beginning of the season, then subtract a win or two and add a loss or two because of this. Discouragement and “playing out the string” are factors, too. That’s why our last game was a 61-76 game that somehow wasn’t really all that exciting for either team. I’d really like to see the regular season cut back to 10 games. It was easier on the players and you could figure averages more easily, too. But that’s something else on the list of what I’d like to see but will never happen.

We didn’t have quite the wave of injuries we had last year, (or in 2014) but basically the same thing happened. The great challenge for this program is in building up the depth needed to be the same team in November that we were in September and October.

 

[SWC75]

The Schedule

Central Connecticut State: This is the one game all year where we will be clear favorites. We need to win it and win it easily and even if we do that, it will be as meaningless as last year’s 33-7 opening win over Colgate. And it was.

Middle Tennessee State: Syracuse might well be an underdog in this game anyway. The Blue Raiders, (will these blue teams make us blue?), might win Conference USA this year. They didn’t (6-6) but they did beat us. I wonder if it would have made a difference in our effots down the stretch if we needed just one more win, rather than 2, to get to a bowl?

Central Michigan: If we are on either a high or a low after the MTS game, this could prove to be a difficult game to get back on track in. It was a difficult game- until we pulled away in the second half.

Louisiana State: The schedule breaks neatly in two groups of teams: the “winnables”, 6 teams we should or at least have a decent chance of beating and what I call the “spiders”, the teams for we are likely to be a fly, caught in their web: teams we are highly unlikely to beat….. Once upon a time we were good enough to beat LSU. Maybe that time will come again. But not this year. But we put a scare into them, after a terrible start with a near pick six on the first play. We fell behind 3-21 and came back to within 26-35. That made us feel good until Troy beat the Tiger son the same field the next week.

North Carolina State: We are 1-8 all-time vs. the Wolfpack. Here are the scores: 20-43, 22-28, 31-32, 17-38, 24-10, 17-24 and 29-42. It’s never mattered how good we are or how good they were, except in Scott Shafer’s first year when injuries and crippled their offense and we had a real good defense and beat them down there in Coach Dave Doeren’s first year. He’s still there and Shafer is gone. This year they will be very good. They are expecting the kind of breakthrough we hope to have someday. And they may have had the kind of breakthrough we’ll have: 8-4 overall and 6-2 in the conference. I don’t think we’ll have a season like 1987 when we went 11-0. We’ll just go from contention to non-contention. It was the LSU game all over again: an interception on the first possession, a 7-26 deficit and a 25-33 final.

Pittsburgh: That 61-76 embarrassment last year was Pitt’s 12th victory in their last 14 games against SU. The history of the series is that both teams are rarely good at the same time and one usually dominates the other for an extended period. We beat Pitt 11 times in 16 years from 1957-1972. They beat us 11 times in a row after that. Then we beat them 16 times in 18 years with one tie. Then came the current streak. The reason for this is simple: both schools recruit in the same areas and go after the same players. When we win those battles, we win the games. When they win them, they win the games. I thought we were going to turn this series back in our favor when the Panthers had their semi-comical coaching carousel a few years ago but then Doug Marrone bolted and we were starting over ourselves. If Dino Babers is to be successful, he’s got to start beating Pitt, both for recruits and on the scoreboard.
We beat Pitt, 27-24 but I didn’t get the sense that we had turned things around yet.

Clemson: It’s hard to know what to make of this series. I know Clemson is the defending national champions and we aren’t but since SU joined the ACC, we’ve lost to them by 35 points at home; lost a defensive duel at their place, 6-16, (DeShaun Watson was injured), lost a shoot-out in our place 27-37, (with Zach Mahoney filling in for Dungey) and been steam rolled 0-54 in their place by a Tiger team that wasn’t even playing that well at the time, (their loss to Pittsburgh was the following week). I suspect the 10 point games are more deceiving than the blow-outs but they still suggest that we should do better than losing 35 or 54 points. What they suggest for this year is unknown. We are still early in Baber’s rebuilding program. Clemson is reloading. They rebuild with players we wish we had. This could be 2017’s version of last year’s Virginia Tech upset, but I doubt it. It wasn’t- it was better. And it was the thing we will remember about the 2017 the longest, especially if the Tigers repeat as national champion.

U of Miami: The great programs have reasons why they are great. They have their ups and downs but they always come back because the reasons they were great before are still there. Oklahoma was mediocre in the 90’s but won the 2000 national championship and appeared in two other title games after that. Southern California fell from greatness in the 80’s and 90’s but became the dominant program of the 2000’s. Alabama had all kinds of problems in the 2000’s until Nick Saban was hired. They have become the dominant program of the current decade. The dominant program of the 1980’s was Miami. After some troubles with probation, they had a sequel in the early 2000’s. Then they faded again and everybody has been waiting for them to come back, especially the ACC who thought they were getting a superpower when they persuaded the Hurricanes to leave the Big East. Amazingly, the Hurricanes have never played in an ACC championship game. But they still exist in an area that produces busloads of top talent and Mark Richt, formerly the successful coach at Georgia and a Miami alum seems to be building the program toward another peak. They didn’t reach that peak this eyar but it is coming. At least they finally made it to a the ACC title game. Our game with them was the same as the first two road games: First possession pick, down 3-13, come back to 19-27. Rinse and repeat.

Florida State: Nunes says: “Syracuse probably falls by three or four touchdowns, at least. Take solace in the fact that Florida State is probably the best team in the country… That talent, even more than the offense, is concentrated on the defensive side of the football, where Florida State returns a ton from last year’s strong group. Sack leader DeMarcus Walker departs, but just about everyone else is back. Same goes for the list of leading tacklers on the ‘Noles last season: beyond Walker there’s major returning talent in most spots. Tarvarus McFadden and Derwin James (both in the secondary) are All-America contenders.” SI reports “The last couple of years, they’ve recruited some leaner pass rushers. Those ends, 6-5 250 Josh Sweat and Brian Burns, 6-5 218, are a little bit quicker off the ball….their secondary and defensive line are as good as ever.” (Our ends are pretty lean. So are our means.) The Seminoles had, what was for them a nightmare season, losing their quarterback in their opener and going into a downward spiral from there. Their nadir was a 3-35 loss at Boston College – or perhaps rescheduling a game with Louisiana Monroe they weren’t going to play after it was a cancelled by a hurricane just so they could get a 6th win and become eligible for a minor bowl. Still, they were good enough to beat us after Guess What? Interception a pass on our first possession, rolling to a 21-7 lead and holding on to win 27-24, our third game with that’s core in four weeks. The missed (or blocked?) field goal at the end of that game was the turning point of a once-promising season.

Wake Forest: The good news: 2 of the last three games are in the “winnable” column. The questions are: will it matter anymore by the time we get to there? Also: what kind of a team will he have at that point: a matured team playing with a high level of confidence or a discouraged, injured team just playing out the string – again? Also: just how winnable are these games? Both Wake Forest and Boston College had winning records and won bowl games last year while we went 4-8 – and lost to Wake by 19 points. This “winnable” game became unwinnable in the second half after we’d taken a 38-24 lead into halftime. The second half was a nightmarish 5-40 and the nightmare continued through the last two games. All told, we were our-score 29-138 in the last five halves of the season after outscoring our opponents 300-252 to that point.

Louisville: This is the last of the “spider” teams. The Cardinals looked like they were going to score 100 points on us last year. Heck, Lamar Jackson looked like he was going to score 100 points by himself! We were shocked when they did that to us, (28-62), but the country was shocked when they did it to Florida State the next week, (63-20). That made Lamar Jackson the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy he eventually got… We play then in their place but we get them late this year. If the players have again tuned out the coach, that could be to our advantage in this one. SU fans are probably thinking that Clemson is the most likely big upset we could pull off this because it will in the Dome. But we might actually have a better chance at Louisville if they have a late fade as they did last year. Louisville flipped the script by getting off to a slow start but getting stronger at the end of the year. Naturally that’s when we played them after having played them when they were good early in the previous year. The game started out like all our road games: an interception on the first possession while the home team built up a big lead. But this time they kept building it up until they’d walloped us 10-56. The comebacks we had at LSU, NC State, Miami and FSU never materialized in this game.

Boston College: When the Eagles get it done- if they get it done- they get it done on defense. Two years ago, they led the nation in total defense and were 4th in scoring defense – and went 3-9 because they were 125th in total offense and 120th in scoring offense. (Who said “defense” wins games?) . Last year they were almost as good on defense- 9th in yards, 44th in scoring and just as bad on offense- 127th in yards and 118th in points. Somehow they improved to 7-6. But they suffered some horrendous blow-outs: 0-49 to Virginia Tech, 10-56 to Clemson, 7-52 to Louisville and 7-45 to Florida State. They gave up an average of 13.7ppg to everyone else. We didn’t do much better against the last three teams but we did beat the Hokies. And we’ve also beaten the Eagles in both years, 20-17 and 29-20. Not this year. The Eagles came up with a good quarterback in Anthony Brown, (and a good back-up, Darius Wade, who played well against us) and a great new running back in A. J. Dillon. More than that, they were a confident team just coming into their own and we were a beat, up, exhausted, disheartened bunch. They went right through us 42-14.

I think it’s likely we lose to all 6 “spiders” and would thus have to go 6-0 against the “winnables” to make a bowl. I think we’ll fall short of that. Another 4-8 season is likely. 5-7 is possible. Anything above that is heavy lifting. But that’s why they play the games: to find out what actually happens. We went 1-5 against the “spiders” but only 3-3 against the “winnables” and did wind up at 4-8 again, our third straight 4-8 season, (following a 3-9 outing). In those years we were 15-17 in August, September and October and 1-15 in November. There will be no breakthrough until we solve our “November” problem.