there's no chance...

[heresjohnny88]

...we beat Miami and get left out, right?

I feel like it would be pretty outrageous if the committee required us to beat UNC in order to make it.

 

[Cuse House]

Beat Miami and we are 100% in.

 

[jdubs30]

Yeah if we beat Miami there is absolutely nothing to worry about next Sunday. We'd be in - probably would be a 10 seed or so at that (assuming a UNC loss)

 

[Eric15]

Nothing is a guarantee or a lock when you're talking about a committee of human beings making a completely subjective decision.

If we beat Miami, we should be in a very strong position to make the tournament.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

...we beat Miami and get left out, right?

I feel like it would be pretty outrageous if the committee required us to beat UNC in order to make it.

If that's the case then there would only be seven ACC teams selected. That's highly doubtful unless there are a ton of upsets in the conference tourneys.

 

[jdubs30]

If that's the case then there would only be seven ACC teams selected. That's highly doubtful unless there are a ton of upsets in the conference tourneys.

Wake is in a good spot as long as they avoid the BC loss on Tuesday I think

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Wake is in a good spot as long as they avoid the BC loss on Tuesday I think

Right but why would the committee pick Wake over us when we had one more conference win than them plus we beat them head to head.

 

[JLine]

Definitely still a chance. Not a large one, but it's not 100% if we win. If we had just won one against UCon, St. John's, or GTown it would be a lock. Hell even BC, and we would be golden with a win. 10% chance they leave us out because of OOC, and road record.

 

[jncuse]

I would put it as 95%+

Won't say 100% because our warts could lead to a strange decision. But if we don't get in at that point we should really be pissed.

 

[jncuse]

Right but why would the committee pick Wake over us when we had one more conference win than them plus we beat them head to head.

Because the conference record is not a subset of games used to compare teams.

We have the quality wins advantage (with more opportunities at home).

They have the road wins, OOC SOS, and team rankings.

I have Wake slightly ahead but it's very judgmental. If someone has Syracuse slightly ahead I won't disagree with them either.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Because the conference record is not a subset of games used to compare teams.

We have the quality wins advantage (with more opportunities at home).

They have the road wins, OOC SOS, and team rankings.

I have Wake slightly ahead but it's very judgmental. If someone has Syracuse slightly ahead I won't disagree with them either.

Yeah, I mean we beat Duke, Virginia and FSU. They beat Louisville. Hopefully they lose to BC and then it's a moot point. I still think everything being equal that us beating them means something if only one of the two teams get in.

 

[Fat tire 13]

I think 65% if we lose to Miami, 95% if we beat Miami, and 100% if we beat UNC

 

[JOC44]

We have a weird resume. Usually, it's the other way around, where a P-5 school has a good nin-conference record and struggled in the league, and the committee has to figure out whether a team that loses to a bunch of really good teams is any good.

We have a good conference performance and a bunch of really, really bad losses (mostly outside of the conference). I don't think there's a lot of precedent on how a team like that gets treated, so it's hard to make a 100% statement.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

We have a weird resume. Usually, it's the other way around, where a P-5 school has a good nin-conference record and struggled in the league, and the committee has to figure out whether a team that loses to a bunch of really good teams is any good.

We have a good conference performance and a bunch of really, really bad losses (mostly outside of the conference). I don't think there's a lot of precedent on how a team like that gets treated, so it's hard to make a 100% statement.

Something that might help a little though is that 3 of those OOC losses were to old rivals, name schools of UConn, Georgetown, and St Johns.

It's kind of reverse of gaming the system. Our playing our old rivals doesn't help us much in RPI or SOS but they seem to play above their heads in matchups against us. It might be that the committee may not want to create too much of a penalty for those kind of losses. It would be bad for the sport as a whole to hinder those kind of matchups.

Our OOC schedule was really a lot tougher, namewise and rivalry wise, than the numbers would indicate. Years ago it seemed the committee used to penalize SU for not doing this.

 

[Brooky03]

I was thinking about this the other day; how bad are our 'bad losses' actually? Going by expected RPI, we only have one loss to a sub-150 RPI team (BC at 200+).

UConn, G'town, and St. John's are expected to finish with RPI's under 150 and G'town might finish under 100. Is 150 or 100 the threshold for a 'bad loss'?

 

[tbonezone]

3 strike rule. 0-3 in ACCT. we failed initiaition. they kick us out of the conference.

 

[DonLightfoot]

I'm going to make my assessment strictly on the ACC conference. In addition, I think we have a decent record vs RPI top 50 (seems I saw 6-7 somewhere so please correct me on this).

The ACC teams just kept beating up on each other, possibly with the exception of UNC. Arguably the best and most competitive conference.

Based on some of the comments in this thread, you may think I'm nuts. As we sit right now I think we are a 90% lock, possibly 100%. This may change based on possible upsets in other conferences. If we beat Miami the lock is definitely 100%. Anything after that is just gravy.

Am I whacky? Could be, but the above is my opinion.

 

[dasher]

I'm going to make my assessment strictly on the ACC conference. In addition, I think we have a decent record vs RPI top 50 (seems I saw 6-7 somewhere so please correct me on this).

The ACC teams just kept beating up on each other, possibly with the exception of UNC. Arguably the best and most competitive conference.

Based on some of the comments in this thread, you may think I'm nuts. As we sit right now I think we are a 90% lock, possibly 100%. This may change based on possible upsets in other conferences. If we beat Miami the lock is definitely 100%. Anything after that is just gravy.

Am I whacky? Could be, but the above is my opinion.

I think 1. you are nuts. and 2. On this, you are correct.