Third down runs

[SWC75]

It's a sore point that we've run the ball on third down too often for most people's tastes. I decided to chart our third down and fourth down runs and success rate:

We've run the ball with 1 yard to go four times and made it three times.
We've run the ball with 2 yards to go nine times and made it four times.
We've run the ball with 3 yards to go three times and made it once.
We've run the ball with 6 yards to go twice and made it once.
We've run the ball with 9 yards to go once and didn't make it.
We've run the ball with 10 yards to go four times and made it once.
We've run the ball with 11 yards to go once and didn't make it.
We've run the ball with 12 yards to go twice and didn't make it.
We've run the ball with 15 yards to go three times never made it.

Points of order: I did not include sacks, which the NCAA counts as runs. These results do include gains by the quarterback, only one of which was designate din the play by play as a scramble. Of the 11 times it was more than 3 yards to go it was the QB running with the ball 6 times: he made the first down on his own once and got one due to a late hit on another occasion. the scramble came up short. There was also one QB rush on 3rd and 10 vs. Maryland that gained 3 yards that was negated by a penalty. I decided to include it. One with 12 yards to go was our last play of the first half against Clemson - where we elected to let the clock run out with 46 seconds left at the time the play was run with the ball at our 23. The plays were we handed it off to the running back with the intent that he should run more than 3 yards for the first down were a 3rd and 15 against Liberty, (no gain), a 3rd and 10 against Liberty, (8 yards), two 3rd-and-6s against Maryland, (we got 1 yard on the first but made it the second time) and a 3rd and 11 in the 4th quarter against Clemson where we got three yards.

That's ten low-percentage runs in three games, 5 by the quarterback, and 5 by the running backs. Three of those plays got the first down, one on a penalty.

 

[Chip]

Depressing numbers.

 

[SWC75]

Depressing numbers.

Sorry.

 

[721Comstock]

I'd be pretty sure that the "runs" when it's 3rd and FOREVER (let's calll that 9+ yards to go) aren't actually even really trying to get the 1st down - it's more to set up a better punt opportunity.

Or perhaps even more importantly - to not give up a sack in an obvious passing situation.

 

[Shenexon]

It's a sore point that we've run the ball on third down too often for most people's tastes. I decided to chart our third down and fourth down runs and success rate:

We've run the ball with 1 yard to go four times and made it three times.
We've run the ball with 2 yards to go nine times and made it four times.
We've run the ball with 3 yards to go three times and made it once.
We've run the ball with 6 yards to go twice and made it once.
We've run the ball with 9 yards to go once and didn't make it.
We've run the ball with 10 yards to go four times and made it once.
We've run the ball with 11 yards to go once and didn't make it.
We've run the ball with 12 yards to go twice and didn't make it.
We've run the ball with 15 yards to go three times never made it.

Points of order: I did not include sacks, which the NCAA counts as runs. These results do include gains by the quarterback, only one of which was designate din the play by play as a scramble. Of the 11 times it was more than 3 yards to go it was the QB running with the ball 6 times: he made the first down on his own once and got one due to a late hit on another occasion. the scramble came up short. There was also one QB rush on 3rd and 10 vs. Maryland that gained 3 yards that was negated by a penalty. I decided to include it. One with 12 yards to go was our last play of the first half against Clemson - where we elected to let the clock run out with 46 seconds left at the time the play was run with the ball at our 23. The plays were we handed it off to the running back with the intent that he should run more than 3 yards for the first down were a 3rd and 15 against Liberty, (no gain), a 3rd and 10 against Liberty, (8 yards), two 3rd-and-6s against Maryland, (we got 1 yard on the first but made it the second time) and a 3rd and 11 in the 4th quarter against Clemson where we got three yards.

That's ten low-percentage runs in three games, 5 by the quarterback, and 5 by the running backs. Three of those plays got the first down, one on a penalty.

Thanks...always appreciate your analytics no matter how ugly...