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[QUOTE="Archbold44, post: 5501416, member: 10528"]
I see 9 chances to get 4 wins.  But if we have a 50/50 chance of winning each game... that is 4.5 wins = 6.5 wins.  6 wins, 5 losses... heading into BC.  I think everyone would take that and run.

But let's say we have a 10% chance against Miami, a 20% chance against Ga Tech and ND, a 30% chance against SMU and Clemson... that is 1.1 wins (.1 + .2 + .2 + .3 + .3).   For the remaining 4 games, if we have 90% chance of beating two and an 80% chance of beating the other two... that is .9 + .9 + .8 +.8 = 3.4 = 6.5 wins (3.4 + 1.1 + the 2 that we have).  And that is being very generous... assuming we will give SMU/Clemson better games than, say, Duke and UNC will give us, etc.

Unless the wheels fall off for a few more ACC teams, we have a tough road to get to 7, much less 8 wins. Anything is possible.  Clemson's QB could get hurt between now and the 2nd half.  QB could lose their QB before or during our game.  Who is Miami's back up QB?  ND could be on QB#3 by that game.  But so could we by then.

If we look at the teams as they are today... even thinking of a 7th win is actually pretty positive. Any combination of 5 wins out of 9 games is impressive somehow.  5-1 at home, 2-4 on the road/neutral?  6-0 at home, 1-5 on the road means an upset.
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