This Ken Pom Thing

[orange2win]

Back in January when SU was ranked #1 and Wisconsin was ranked #18, Ken Pom had Wisconsin ranked #1 in his poll. I wrote a post here pondering if maybe KP's algorithms were projecting the end of year results, while the AP and others were giving us the current standing. How to explain such a rediculous difference?

Today Ken Pom still has Wisconsin ranked higher than SU in his poll. Guess we will get the answer to the question in a few days.

 

[HoustonCuse]

According to his ratings, Wisconsin is Louisville with a much-much better offense. This game, like all our Sweet 16 games, will be an absolute battle. I wouldn't be surprised if this game wound up being 55-53. If we can hit shots we will win. If we open the game with 8 minutes of no FGs like we did against Butler - you know the results.

 

[Cusefan95]

According to his ratings, Wisconsin is Louisville with a much-much better offense. This game, like all our Sweet 16 games, will be an absolute battle. I wouldn't be surprised if this game wound up being 55-53. If we can hit shots we will win. If we open the game with 8 minutes of no FGs like we did against Butler - you know the results.

This is all true - but I'd add that if Syracuse comes out hot and gets up by 11, Wisconsin will have a very hard time coming back. A strong start would completely take Wisconsin out of their game.

 

[Knicks411]

Basically, Wisconsin put up some crazy defensive numbers in the pre-conference schedule which are kinda propping their numbers up.

In Big 10 play, their efficiency margin was good, but nothing special. (outscored opponents by about .06 points per trip.)

 

[HoustonCuse]

Basically, Wisconsin put up some crazy defensive numbers in the pre-conference schedule which are kinda propping their numbers up.

In Big 10 play, their efficiency margin was good, but nothing special. (outscored opponents by about .06 points per trip.)

Thats good to hear. Their NCSOS was foolishly bad.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Oh and one other tid-bit; based on Ken Pom, I thought I had this thing all figured out. Memphis was a #8 seed (I think) and were rated like #9 in the nation in Kenpom's system. I decided to stand out from the crowd and put them in my FF as a result of this. Ummm no. So it is true - the Kenpom numbers can be misleading and matchups are still more important than sabermetrics.

 

[KingOtis]

Didn't his numbers favor almighty Wichita State as well?

A friend of mine went to Wisconsin and we were talking about the matchup yesterday. He said they can overcome one double-digit lead. It's the second run that usually puts them away.

 

[Marsh01]

I actually like the matchup. This team doesnt have the low post player that has hurt us this season. (Jack Cooley, Yancey Gates, kid from KState) They basically play 4 guys around the perimeter and really work the ball around to get an open shot. They constantly screened guys when they played Vandy and were able to get some good looks.

They are going to take over 30 three's. No secret. We just have to do a good job of really not letting them get many open looks. The one positive is that if they are missing shots we should be able to clean up the boards as this is not a great rebounding team.

Wisky also doesnt have the classic 6'9" white big guy at the level they have had in the past. They have a couple of them now on the roster but they are not as talented as past players.

I agree that we need to start much faster and build a lead. I dont think we will tun them over much and need to really play a solid offensive game. I really hope we dont settle for three point shots. I want to see us take no more than 10-11 in this game like we did against KState. If we end up firing up 20-25 three's we are probably going to get picked off.

 

[Knicks411]

Oh and one other tid-bit; based on Ken Pom, I thought I had this thing all figured out. Memphis was a #8 seed (I think) and were rated like #9 in the nation in Kenpom's system. I decided to stand out from the crowd and put them in my FF as a result of this. Ummm no. So it is true - the Kenpom numbers can be misleading and matchups are still more important than sabermetrics.

Though they also said Duke was very overrated (they were like 18th in his ratings). Also worth pointing out that St. Louis is another team that was well thought of by his ratings; 14th overall despite being a 9 seed.

But of course, no rating system is perfect, and even if it was, anything can happen in one game.

 

[CorduroyG]

guard the 3. extend the zone from opening tip. they got nobody who can beat us inside. active zone up top, hands always up, feet moving. if not, it will be a repeat of 1st half against cincy. defending the 3 wins this game for us.

 

[Madbiker]

I usually agree that we should limit our 3 pt attempts and drive it to the rim instead. And I'm sure we will in this game. But since Wisky will volume shoot 3's, even if they shoot 33% they could still make 10-14. We will need to offset some of that by making 3's also.

 

[HoustonCuse]

On the plus side - they play this "4 out 1 in" offense and jack a lot of threes. That could help us with defensive rebounding as our guys will naturally be closer to the rim than their bigs. Like a free box out.

 

[moqui]

Basically, Wisconsin put up some crazy defensive numbers in the pre-conference schedule which are kinda propping their numbers up.

In Big 10 play, their efficiency margin was good, but nothing special. (outscored opponents by about .06 points per trip.)

the thing that sucks is Wisconsin always does well in the Pomeroy rankings, which leads people to pick them for deep runs, then they bow out relatively early. Watch - this will be the one year where they play to form.

I like Pomeroy not so much for his overall rankings, but for the detailed stats that he has. For example, there are three things that trouble me about Wisconsin - well, four really - their defense is very, very good - but there are three other things buried in the Pomeroy stats that SU fans should watch out for:

1. They are exceptionally good at taking care of the ball, committing turnovers on just 15% of their possessions - the 2nd best mark in the nation.

2. They are very comfortable shooting the three - although their team percentage is not great, the fact is that that generated 36% of their points from the three point line, 18th most in the nation. They are not afraid to take a lot to make a lot. Couple that with their exceptional 3 pt defense (holding opponents to 28%, 6th best in the nation), they usually enjoy a wide disparity in points from 3 point land - while they are top 20 in scoring points from 3, their defense is 2nd in the land in giving up the lowest percentage of points from 3.

3. Their team 3 pt percentage of 36% is good but not terrifying . . . the real issue for Syracuse and our zone defense is their ability to spread the floor with shooters who must be accounted for. They have 5 or 6 shooters available - three guys who have taken over 100 triples and are each hitting at 35% or better (Berggren, Taylor and Brust), another guy who has taken 90 this year and has hit for over 45% (Gasser), a deep bench guy who took over 60 treys at nearly 39% (Wilson) and a small forward who hits at a poor percentage (Bruesewitz, .298) but still took 84 triples in 35 games. If they let him take that many, I worry that he is a Southerland type who has the ability to get hot at any time. This team takes a lot of threes. Their top 8 guys have played in almost every game (their 8th guy missed one game) and every one of them takes threes, even the two really bad shooters average 1 three point attempt per game.

Wisconsin is really going to spread the zone out with their shooters, get it to flex with good passing, then find the open man on the overloaded side to take a shot late in the clock. Should be a lot of long rebounds in this game, so the guards are going to have to rebound well.

 

[Knicks411]

Wisconsin is really going to spread the zone out with their shooters, get it to flex with good passing, then find the open man on the overloaded side to take a shot late in the clock. Should be a lot of long rebounds in this game, so the guards are going to have to rebound well.

feel bad for only quoting a little bit in a long post, but I was thinking this same thing watching them beat Vandy. In their last possession they got 2 long offensive rebounds off missed 3's, they came right to the fouline or so, and I was thinking that if they were playing us, hopefully our guards would be all over them.

 

[tipphill]

sorry--this game is about heart and hustle---i can't remeber algorithms since geometry in 1967---we had to calculate on a table in the back of the book--geesh---ancient

 

[SWC75]

According to his ratings, Wisconsin is Louisville with a much-much better offense. This game, like all our Sweet 16 games, will be an absolute battle. I wouldn't be surprised if this game wound up being 55-53. If we can hit shots we will win. If we open the game with 8 minutes of no FGs like we did against Butler - you know the results.

Their offense concerns me more than their defense. Defensively they are K-State II. But unlike the Wildcats, they can shoot the rock.

 

[CorduroyG]

taking a gander at wisconsin's schedule, its similar to kansas st in that they've beaten the teams they were supposed to beat with 1 exception, and they lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to with 1 exception. kstate won the games they were supposed to except oklahoma x2, and lost the games they were supposed to except missouri. wiscy won the games they were supposed to except iowa x2, and lost the games they were supposed to except at ohio st.

that tells me if we play well we win. if we play like we did against kstate in 1st half we'll probably lose. yes wiscy is a better team than kstate, but they have a tough time beating better teams.

 

[chlywtr]

kris needs to attack the basket like he did against kstate

 

[bnoro]

Wisconsin also has a tendency to stop scoring for long stretches of time. If we take advantage of one of those droughts and build a lead, it's all but over.

 

[jncuse]

I use Pomeroy fairly enough as a consideration in making wagers. But I ignore Wisconsin's rating.

 

[pearl31]

Wisky also doesnt have the classic 6'9" white big guy at the level they have had in the past. They have a couple of them now on the roster but they are not as talented as past players.

While maybe not quite as good as Leuer last year or Butch the year before that, Berggren is essentially that guy you're saying they don't have. He doesn't necessarily scare me, but he can really bang inside and has shown he can step out and hit the 3. He could be formidable on Thursday.

 

[CuseinNYC]

Has anyone ever checked whether KenPom's statistics/rankings are actually correlated with higher winning percentages? It's nice that he goes into all this detail, but I think it's bizarre that he's never bothered to show that they work. I know for a fact that plenty of the really exciting new baseball stats are not predictive at all (UZR being a notable offender).

 

[SoBeCuse]

I actually like the matchup. This team doesnt have the low post player that has hurt us this season. (Jack Cooley, Yancey Gates, kid from KState) They basically play 4 guys around the perimeter and really work the ball around to get an open shot. They constantly screened guys when they played Vandy and were able to get some good looks.

They are going to take over 30 three's. No secret. We just have to do a good job of really not letting them get many open looks. The one positive is that if they are missing shots we should be able to clean up the boards as this is not a great rebounding team.

Wisky also doesnt have the classic 6'9" white big guy at the level they have had in the past. They have a couple of them now on the roster but they are not as talented as past players.

I agree that we need to start much faster and build a lead. I dont think we will tun them over much and need to really play a solid offensive game. I really hope we dont settle for three point shots. I want to see us take no more than 10-11 in this game like we did against KState. If we end up firing up 20-25 three's we are probably going to get picked off.

Nice breakdown. I heard Bo Ryan on Jim Rome today. He said his team was practicing halfcourt shots. I guess they will be launching from distance without any reservations.

 

[kyleslamb]

Oh and one other tid-bit; based on Ken Pom, I thought I had this thing all figured out. Memphis was a #8 seed (I think) and were rated like #9 in the nation in Kenpom's system. I decided to stand out from the crowd and put them in my FF as a result of this. Ummm no. So it is true - the Kenpom numbers can be misleading and matchups are still more important than sabermetrics.

The problem isn't with the KenPom numbers by the sound of things... it's that you're not correctly applying what they are intended to convey. As with any mathematical/statistical sample, ratings, algorithms, etc. are not intended to be absolute -- especially in such a small sample.

You can't look at Syracuse beating Wisconsin once and conclude the ratings are faulty. That's not how it works. It's a snapshot of what would be expected to happen over the course of several meetings. Wisconsin, in a 100-game series, would be expected to beat Syracuse (as of today) 52 times. Of course, it's not a 100-game series, it's a one-game winner-move-on situation. It basically means it's a 50-50 proposition.

Wisconsin's in-conference efficiency margin wasn't terribly dominant, but one has to look at who they played. They played Michigan State three times, Ohio State twice, Indiana twice, Michigan twice, Illinois & Minnesota twice, Purdue, Northwestern, etc. The competition they played was very tough. In fact, Wisconsin's overall strength of schedule by KenPom was 13th-toughest in America.

Pomeroy's system isn't perfect. It certainly doesn't always get the games right nor does it proclaim to do so. It gets about 77% of the results correct as far as win-loss. There are a few things Pomeroy doesn't account for that it probably should... and as such there are systems that do better on a predictive basis. Nonetheless, if you look at a one-and-done tournament to find fault in the ratings, the issue isn't with the system but how you're defining its success.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Tempo, tempo, and...did I mention that TEMPO, is the key to this game?
Wisky is ND's burn offense & USF's suffocating defense on steroids.
They take care of the ball and put up volume 3's, as others have mentioned.
This is the game the last month of the season prepared us for- all those tight games should have us ready for a team like Wisky.
We had alot of bitching & moaning playing those games, and w/ everyone seemingly in a shooting slump, but here's where it pays off.
It'll be tight & close, just like Butler, but this time we have the team to pull it out.