SWC75
Bored Historian
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We aspire to be a top 25 programs so I’m comparing the performances of our best players in passing, running and receiving to the performances top 25 teams tend to get.
The average quarterback of a top 25 team last year completed 224 of 351 passes (65.8%) for 2895 yards, 23TDs and 9 interceptions. That’s 12.9 yards per completion, 8.3 yards per attempt and an NCAA quarterback rating of 149.6.
Ryan Nassib, if you multiply his numbers by 12/10, is on pace to wind up with 260 of 414 passes, (62.8%) for 2708 yards, 24TDs and 7 interceptions. That’s 10.4 yards per completion, 6.5 yards per attempt and an NCAA quarterback rating of 133.50. Ryan is on his way to breaking his own SU records for attempts and completions and smashing Marvin graves‘ record for passing yards. He won’t break Perry Patterson’s record for lowest interception percentage, (4 in 300) but he’ll be close. But he’s not close to Donny McPherson’s records for yards per completion, (18.1) and attempt (10.2) or quarterback rating, (164.3). To get on the top ten on those lists you’d need to average 15.5 yards per completion,. 7.8 per attempt with a rating of 145.1 and Nassib isn’t close to those figures either. The lack of a vertical passing game is the difference. The lack of a strong running game or a really good deep threat is the reason for that.
The average top running back for a top 25 team last year carried the ball 199 times for 1093 yards, (5.5 yards per attempt) and 12TDs.
Antwon Bailey, when you multiply his numbers by 12/10, is on pace for 234 carries for 1036 yards, (4.4) and 7TDS. He gaining the yards of a top 25 back but on more carries for fewer scores. He’s still gaining 75% of our rushing yards compared to 68% for Delone Carter last year. (Carter also averaged 5.3 yards per carry despite not being as fast.) We’re still looking for that sidekick that he was to Carter. Antwon is on a pace for 23 receptions for 137 yards and no scores after getting 35/306/3 last year. His role as a primary runner is limiting his greatest quality: his versatility. If he was paired with a power-running fullback, he’d be a more effective player.
The average leading receiver for a top 25 team last caught 63 passes for 947 yards, (15.0), and 8 TDs.
Alec Lemon is on a pace to catch 68 passes for 852 yards, (12.5- two weeks ago it was 9.8 so you can see what a couple big games can do) and 7 TDs. Van Chew is on a pace for 35 catches for 455 yards, (13.0) and 4TDs. For the second straight year he’s fading badly down the stretch. Nick Provo has passed Chew in receptions and is on a pace for 52 for 544 yards (10.5) and 7 TDs. Dorian Graham is on pace for 28 receptions, 304 yards (10.9) and 2TDs. The thing is, he’s the one guy with deep speed yet we have him running possession routes. When we break out with the vertical game, he should be the guy. None of them has the numbers of an average ace receiver for a top 25 team, although Lemon is getting closer and looking more and more like a guy could play on Sundays. .
The average quarterback of a top 25 team last year completed 224 of 351 passes (65.8%) for 2895 yards, 23TDs and 9 interceptions. That’s 12.9 yards per completion, 8.3 yards per attempt and an NCAA quarterback rating of 149.6.
Ryan Nassib, if you multiply his numbers by 12/10, is on pace to wind up with 260 of 414 passes, (62.8%) for 2708 yards, 24TDs and 7 interceptions. That’s 10.4 yards per completion, 6.5 yards per attempt and an NCAA quarterback rating of 133.50. Ryan is on his way to breaking his own SU records for attempts and completions and smashing Marvin graves‘ record for passing yards. He won’t break Perry Patterson’s record for lowest interception percentage, (4 in 300) but he’ll be close. But he’s not close to Donny McPherson’s records for yards per completion, (18.1) and attempt (10.2) or quarterback rating, (164.3). To get on the top ten on those lists you’d need to average 15.5 yards per completion,. 7.8 per attempt with a rating of 145.1 and Nassib isn’t close to those figures either. The lack of a vertical passing game is the difference. The lack of a strong running game or a really good deep threat is the reason for that.
The average top running back for a top 25 team last year carried the ball 199 times for 1093 yards, (5.5 yards per attempt) and 12TDs.
Antwon Bailey, when you multiply his numbers by 12/10, is on pace for 234 carries for 1036 yards, (4.4) and 7TDS. He gaining the yards of a top 25 back but on more carries for fewer scores. He’s still gaining 75% of our rushing yards compared to 68% for Delone Carter last year. (Carter also averaged 5.3 yards per carry despite not being as fast.) We’re still looking for that sidekick that he was to Carter. Antwon is on a pace for 23 receptions for 137 yards and no scores after getting 35/306/3 last year. His role as a primary runner is limiting his greatest quality: his versatility. If he was paired with a power-running fullback, he’d be a more effective player.
The average leading receiver for a top 25 team last caught 63 passes for 947 yards, (15.0), and 8 TDs.
Alec Lemon is on a pace to catch 68 passes for 852 yards, (12.5- two weeks ago it was 9.8 so you can see what a couple big games can do) and 7 TDs. Van Chew is on a pace for 35 catches for 455 yards, (13.0) and 4TDs. For the second straight year he’s fading badly down the stretch. Nick Provo has passed Chew in receptions and is on a pace for 52 for 544 yards (10.5) and 7 TDs. Dorian Graham is on pace for 28 receptions, 304 yards (10.9) and 2TDs. The thing is, he’s the one guy with deep speed yet we have him running possession routes. When we break out with the vertical game, he should be the guy. None of them has the numbers of an average ace receiver for a top 25 team, although Lemon is getting closer and looking more and more like a guy could play on Sundays. .
