Times 12/11

[SWC75]

We aspire to be a top 25 programs so I’m comparing the performances of our best players in passing, running and receiving to the performances top 25 teams tend to get.

The average quarterback of a top 25 team last year completed 224 of 351 passes (65.8%) for 2895 yards, 23TDs and 9 interceptions. That’s 12.9 yards per completion, 8.3 yards per attempt and an NCAA quarterback rating of 149.6.

Ryan Nassib, if you multiply his numbers by 12/11, is on pace to wind up with 257 of 418 passes, (61.5%) for 2684 yards, 23TDs and 8 interceptions. (If so that means that vs. Pitt he’ll be 21 for 35 for 224 yards 2RD and 1 pick- not bad). That’s 10.4 yards per completion, 6.4 yards per attempt and an NCAA quarterback rating of 129.75. Ryan is on his way to breaking his own SU records for attempts and completions and smashing Marvin Graves‘ record for passing yards. He won’t break Perry Patterson’s record for lowest interception percentage, (4 in 300) but he’ll be close. But he’s not close to Donny McPherson’s records for yards per completion, (18.1) and attempt (10.2) or quarterback rating, (164.3). To get on the top ten on those lists you’d need to average 15.5 yards per completion,. 7.8 per attempt with a rating of 145.1 and Nassib isn’t close to those figures either. The lack of a vertical passing game is the difference. And the lack of a strong running game or a really good deep threat is the reason for that.

The average top running back for a top 25 team last year carried the ball 199 times for 1093 yards, (5.5 yards per attempt) and 12TDs.

Antwon Bailey, when you multiply his numbers by 12/11, is on pace for 242 carries for 1089 yards, (4.5) and 7TDS, (which means he would get 91 yards on 20 carries and score once vs. Pitt). He gaining the yards of a top 25 back but on more carries for fewer scores. He’s still gaining 75% of our rushing yards compared to 68% for Delone Carter last year. (Carter also averaged 5.3 yards per carry despite not being as fast.) We’re still looking for that sidekick that he was to Carter. Antwon is on a pace for 26 receptions for 171 yards, (which would get him 2 catches ofr 14 yards vs. Pitt) and no scores after getting 35/306/3 last year. His role as a primary runner is limiting his greatest quality: his versatility. If he was paired with a power-running fullback, he’d be a more effective player.

The average leading receiver for a top 25 team last caught 63 passes for 947 yards, (15.0), and 8 TDs.

Alec Lemon is on a pace to catch 65 passes for 802 yards, (12.3) and 7 TDs. That would be the most receptions ever for an SU receiver in a season but way short of the records for yardage, (1131) or scores (14). He’s due for 5 receptions for 67 yards and a score vs. Pitt. Van Chew is on a pace for 38 catches for 497 yards, (13.1) and 3TDs. (Vs. Pitt: 3 catches for 41 yards.) Last year he was 41 for 611, (14.9) and 9. Nick Provo is on a pace for 50 for 545 yards (10.9) and 8 TDs. (That would give him 4 for 45 and a score vs. Pitt.) Dorian Graham is on pace for 26 receptions, 284 yards (10.9) and 2TDs. (2 for 24 yards vs. Pitt.) The thing is, he’s the one guy with deep speed yet we have him running possession routes. When we break out with the vertical game, he should be the guy. None of them has the numbers of a typical ace receiver for a top 25 team, although Lemon has the catches.

So, if Nassib was 21/35 for 224 yards and 2 scores, (to Lemon and Provo) and Bailey runs for 91 yards on 20 carries and a score vs. Pittsburgh, would you take that right now? I would.

 

[IthacaMatt]

"When we break out with the vertical game ..."

Man, that is just so sad to think that it's the last game of the season, and this offense is still playing like it's week 2.

 

[SoBristol]

Thanks SWC for that analysis.

To me, it leads to obvious conclusions: we don't have a second useful running back (not just a running FB); we are short a good deep threat. It is not shown in your stats, but we also don't have a back-up QB who is a running threat (unlike UConn and Cincy who made hay against us).

You might say that what we are missing would be Collier/Gulley at RB; Sales at WR (although he is more a mid-range threat); and Broyld as a running QB. Bad luck. Or you might say that Marrone should have been recruiting some JUCO playmakers to fill the holes in his offense.

 

[SWC75]

Thanks SWC for that analysis.

To me, it leads to obvious conclusions: we don't have a second useful running back (not just a running FB); we are short a good deep threat. It is not shown in your stats, but we also don't have a back-up QB who is a running threat (unlike UConn and Cincy who made hay against us).

You might say that what we are missing would be Collier/Gulley at RB; Sales at WR (although he is more a mid-range threat); and Broyld as a running QB. Bad luck. Or you might say that Marrone should have been recruiting some JUCO playmakers to fill the holes in his offense.

Again, Nassib could be a running threat but we have no back-up for him that really want to see in there. Part of the reaosn for that is that we play so many close games or losses where we don't get to substitute

 

[SoBristol]

Again, Nassib could be a running threat but we have no back-up for him that really want to see in there. Part of the reaosn for that is that we play so many close games or losses where we don't get to substitute

The UConn and Cincy QBs (the starter at UConn; Munchie for Cincy in our game) could be running threats in the same way as Nassib could be. But each of these teams also had a back up/change of pace QB who was their run-first QB (and for Cincy, it was their 3rd string guy). And each of these back-ups managed to put up key yardage against us.
I don't agree with the "close games" theory. UConn and Cincy have had close games as well -- they used their back-up QBs as weapons when the game against SU was close.
It comes back to coaching priorities (Marrone seeing the need for a running QB -- and then going the JUCO route for skill players), and success in recruiting a useful QB (vs. what we have in Loeb, Miller, Kinder).

 

[rosconey]

the object isnt to keep the score close-

its to score MORE-

i wonder if marrone knows this?

 

[SWC75]

The UConn and Cincy QBs (the starter at UConn; Munchie for Cincy in our game) could be running threats in the same way as Nassib could be. But each of these teams also had a back up/change of pace QB who was their run-first QB (and for Cincy, it was their 3rd string guy). And each of these back-ups managed to put up key yardage against us.
I don't agree with the "close games" theory. UConn and Cincy have had close games as well -- they used their back-up QBs as weapons when the game against SU was close.
It comes back to coaching priorities (Marrone seeing the need for a running QB -- and then going the JUCO route for skill players), and success in recruiting a useful QB (vs. what we have in Loeb, Miller, Kinder).

I agree with you on proactive strategies in the close games but I don't think Marrone does.

I like the idea of someday ahving Hunt or Kinder at QB and Broyld at tailback. That would open up some interesting possiblities.

 

[SoBristol]

Not sure Kinder is the guy (saw him in one scrimmage); haven't seen Hunt; but Broyld will definitely be a player.

I would like to see Marrone land a Kevin Johnson clone -- super quick, able to be a running QB, or a wingback, or a DB. Not saying these guys are out there, thinking of SU.

 

[OrangeMojo]

We aspire to be a top 25 programs so I’m comparing the performances of our best players in passing, running and receiving to the performances top 25 teams tend to get.

The average quarterback of a top 25 team last year completed 224 of 351 passes (65.8%) for 2895 yards, 23TDs and 9 interceptions. That’s 12.9 yards per completion, 8.3 yards per attempt and an NCAA quarterback rating of 149.6.

Ryan Nassib, if you multiply his numbers by 12/11, is on pace to wind up with 257 of 418 passes, (61.5%) for 2684 yards, 23TDs and 8 interceptions. (If so that means that vs. Pitt he’ll be 21 for 35 for 224 yards 2RD and 1 pick- not bad). That’s 10.4 yards per completion, 6.4 yards per attempt and an NCAA quarterback rating of 129.75. Ryan is on his way to breaking his own SU records for attempts and completions and smashing Marvin Graves‘ record for passing yards. He won’t break Perry Patterson’s record for lowest interception percentage, (4 in 300) but he’ll be close. But he’s not close to Donny McPherson’s records for yards per completion, (18.1) and attempt (10.2) or quarterback rating, (164.3). To get on the top ten on those lists you’d need to average 15.5 yards per completion,. 7.8 per attempt with a rating of 145.1 and Nassib isn’t close to those figures either. The lack of a vertical passing game is the difference. And the lack of a strong running game or a really good deep threat is the reason for that.

The average top running back for a top 25 team last year carried the ball 199 times for 1093 yards, (5.5 yards per attempt) and 12TDs.

Antwon Bailey, when you multiply his numbers by 12/11, is on pace for 242 carries for 1089 yards, (4.5) and 7TDS, (which means he would get 91 yards on 20 carries and score once vs. Pitt). He gaining the yards of a top 25 back but on more carries for fewer scores. He’s still gaining 75% of our rushing yards compared to 68% for Delone Carter last year. (Carter also averaged 5.3 yards per carry despite not being as fast.) We’re still looking for that sidekick that he was to Carter. Antwon is on a pace for 26 receptions for 171 yards, (which would get him 2 catches ofr 14 yards vs. Pitt) and no scores after getting 35/306/3 last year. His role as a primary runner is limiting his greatest quality: his versatility. If he was paired with a power-running fullback, he’d be a more effective player.

The average leading receiver for a top 25 team last caught 63 passes for 947 yards, (15.0), and 8 TDs.

Alec Lemon is on a pace to catch 65 passes for 802 yards, (12.3) and 7 TDs. That would be the most receptions ever for an SU receiver in a season but way short of the records for yardage, (1131) or scores (14). He’s due for 5 receptions for 67 yards and a score vs. Pitt. Van Chew is on a pace for 38 catches for 497 yards, (13.1) and 3TDs. (Vs. Pitt: 3 catches for 41 yards.) Last year he was 41 for 611, (14.9) and 9. Nick Provo is on a pace for 50 for 545 yards (10.9) and 8 TDs. (That would give him 4 for 45 and a score vs. Pitt.) Dorian Graham is on pace for 26 receptions, 284 yards (10.9) and 2TDs. (2 for 24 yards vs. Pitt.) The thing is, he’s the one guy with deep speed yet we have him running possession routes. When we break out with the vertical game, he should be the guy. None of them has the numbers of a typical ace receiver for a top 25 team, although Lemon has the catches.

So, if Nassib was 21/35 for 224 yards and 2 scores, (to Lemon and Provo) and Bailey runs for 91 yards on 20 carries and a score vs. Pittsburgh, would you take that right now? I would.

What are the averages during the current 4 game losing streak where the team is only averaging 15 pts/game? Unfortunately those are more illustrative of what can be expected this Saturday.

Last year the late season offensive death march was at least attributable to all the injuries in the receiving corps. This year I have no idea what it is and can only conclude it is due to the coaching/play calling as once again the offense seems to have gone into a shell despite having all the same kids out there that were producing earlier in the season.

 

[SoBristol]

What are the averages during the current 4 game losing streak where the team is only averaging 15 pts/game? Unfortunately those are more illustrative of what can be expected this Saturday.

Last year the late season offensive death march was at least attributable to all the injuries in the receiving corps. This year I have no idea what it is and can only conclude it is due to the coaching/play calling as once again the offense seems to have gone into a shell despite having all the same kids out there that were producing earlier in the season.

Just looking at the offense, the issues are getting beat at the line of scrimmage (at least a couple of soft spots), allowing far too much pressure on the QB, and a weak set of skill players behind the core group of Nassib, Bailey, Chew, Lemon & Provo. When you rely on a pro-style QB (not a threat to run), you need skill guys who at least match what the opponents have. We don't have a second RB or a spare QB; or more than a very average wingback (Graham, who is fast but still struggling as a receiver). No true #1 receiver who is a deep threat. The Marrone recruits aren't ready or able to help much.

 

[SWC75]

What are the averages during the current 4 game losing streak where the team is only averaging 15 pts/game? Unfortunately those are more illustrative of what can be expected this Saturday.

Rounding halves, (.5) up, Nassib would be 22 of 40 for 234 yards 2 scores, (to lemon and provo) an one pick. Bailey would have 19 carries for 80 yards and 3 catches for 15 yards, Lemon would have 7 catches for 96 yards, Chew 3 for 32 yards, Graham 2 for 13 yards and Provo 5 for 44 yards. Could we win with those numbers? probably not. But the team's biggest problem has been field positon- we have to go father than the other team. And that's aobut special teams, not these guys.