Today's Bracket Matrix - re. Syracuse

[jncuse]

Ignore the 2.89 and the #10 ranking, because that is skewed by some brackets from yesterday that were not updated. Only 54 of 103 brackets have been updated.

Here is what I counted from the 54 updated brackets (for whatever it is worth)

#3 - 33
#4 - 15
#2 - 4
#5 - 2

My manual counts may be a few off either way.

 

[pearl31]

Interesting.

 

[samspann1]

When was the last time that a power conference team had 5 or fewer losses heading into the tourney and received worse than a 4 seed? 3 seed ?

 

[Full_Rebar]

Great point. I know that SU has looked bad down the stretch, but it's like everything before that carries no weight. If SU ends up a 5, that is horrible seeding.

 

[anomander]

I thought the last 10 games thing was scrapped. Our entire profile should be looked at. What if we were like UVA and had 4 losses before January and have basically won out since. Our seeding would be on the rise. We shouldn't be penalized based on a bad 2 weeks. We still have a bunch of good wins.

 

[samspann1]

The " last 10 games" criterion has been dumped, supposedly. I have my doubts, though.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I thought the last 10 games thing was scrapped. Our entire profile should be looked at. What if we were like UVA and had 4 losses before January and have basically won out since. Our seeding would be on the rise. We shouldn't be penalized based on a bad 2 weeks. We still have a bunch of good wins.

More like a bad 4 to 5 weeks. We've completely tanked the last month of basketball and barely look worthy of a top 25 ranking. We haven't had a good win since the Duke game on February 1. That's a very long time ago in basketball-land.

 

[pearl31]

More like a bad 4 to 5 weeks. We've completely tanked the last month of basketball and barely look worthy of a top 25 ranking. We haven't had a good win since the Duke game on February 1. That's a very long time ago in basketball-land.

At Maryland and at FSU are good wins.

 

[samspann1]

@ Pitt...

 

[OrlandoCuse]

At Maryland and at FSU are good wins.

They are wins vs two NIT teams. Is that what we're hanging our hat on now?

On the bright side, at least we didn't lose to them. Oh wait, we did lose to two teams that can't even qualify for post season play due to losing records during that time span.

Our "bad losses" have been very bad and will hurt us come Selection Sunday. We are a wounded animal and will not get any favors from the Selection Committee. Perception is reality.

Oh Lord

 

[pearl31]

They are wins vs two NIT teams. Is that what we're hanging our hat on now?

On the bright side, at least we didn't lose to them. Oh wait, we did lose to two teams that can't even qualify for post season play due to losing records during that time span.

Our "bad losses" have been very bad and will hurt us come Selection Sunday. We are a wounded animal and will not get any favors from the Selection Committee. Perception is reality.

Oh Lord

You said we haven't had a good win since Feb. 1 and I corrected you. :noidea:

 

[Melancer46]

They are wins vs two NIT teams. Is that what we're hanging our hat on now?

On the bright side, at least we didn't lose to them. Oh wait, we did lose to two teams that can't even qualify for post season play due to losing records during that time span.

Our "bad losses" have been very bad and will hurt us come Selection Sunday. We are a wounded animal and will not get any favors from the Selection Committee. Perception is reality.

Oh Lord

I'd also argue that we didn't play well against Maryland. Just did enough to win. Florida State was the only game since out first matchup with Duke where I felt we played really well.

 

[two3zone]

You said we haven't had a good win since Feb. 1 and I corrected you. :noidea:

Who was the last tournament team we've beaten? I think that's his point.

 

[Full_Rebar]

Well if we are going to play this game, what's Nova's last good win then? Are the Big Ten teams getting good wins by beating one another?

 

[two3zone]

Well if we are going to play this game, what's Nova's last good win then? Are the Big Ten teams getting good wins by beating one another?

You have to count the good with the bad. We've had some losses that may be even worse than bad.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

You said we haven't had a good win since Feb. 1 and I corrected you. :noidea:

No you didn't.

We won on a 35 foot buzzer beater vs a team that is fighting for an 8 seed.

Eventually you have to scrap all of the RPI ratings, "quality wins", "bad losses" and actually take a look and see if we have a good basketball team. In reality we don't. Not right now. We played way above our potential on the 25 game win streak, extending it out for an extra few games through some miracle wins. We could have easily lost to Miami, Pitt (twice), BC (in Boston) and NC State. We managed to pull out those wins but they were all in doubt with under 5 minutes to go. Things have evened out and we are now losing those games.

The 25 game winning streak and #1 ranking have given many fans a false sense of dominance with this team. In reality we are a very average team. During the streak we were never dominating teams. We trailed in the 2nd half in over half of our games this year. We've broken 80 just one time since December 1st. We've won one game by 20+ points since ACC play started. I've seen nothing out of this team that makes me think we are head and shoulders above the top 60 teams in the country. We are just an average team that happened to put together a glorious 25 game win streak. The miracles stopped and we've fallen back to earth.

 

[pearl31]

I'm not talking about playing well or deserving to win or whatever.
Wins @ RPI top 100 teams are good wins. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[pearl31]

Not right now.

There's your problem, champ.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Well if we are going to play this game, what's Nova's last good win then? Are the Big Ten teams getting good wins by beating one another?

I don't think Nova is better than a 3 seed. They will probably get a 2 seed, but the talk of them on the 1 line is idiotic.

 

[jncuse]

You have to count the good with the bad. We've had some losses that may be even worse than bad.

Yes, you need to count the good with the bad. What about considering the good as well.

What 3/4/5 seeds are anywhere close to in terms of win and %:
7-2 vs top 50
15-3 vs top 100

Absolutely the 2 bad losses will hurt vs teams that have 1 or 0. But it will not completely close the gap.

 

[Briancuse]

Our resume is too good to be lower than a 3, but it wouldn't shocked me if we got screwed over by the committee.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I'm not talking about playing well or deserving to win or whatever.
Wins @ RPI top 100 teams are good wins. Nothing more, nothing less.

You' re watching too much ESPN and listening to too many "bracketologists".

"Good wins" are a combination of "how" you play and "who" you play.

Playing bad and losing (the how) vs bad teams (the who) is the best indicator of the quality of our team. That quality is average at best.

 

[pearl31]

You' re watching too much ESPN and listening to too many "bracketologists".

"Good wins" are a combination of "how" you play and "who" you play.

Playing bad and losing (the how) vs bad teams (the who) is the best indicator of the quality of our team. That quality is average at best.

I'm not sure who you're watching/listening to, but you might want to switch channels.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I'm not sure who you're watching/listening to, but you might want to switch channels.

I'm actually watching the basketball games. Switching channels is necessary because there are multiple games on multiple channels.

 

[djcon57]

Our resume is too good to be lower than a 3, but it wouldn't shocked me if we got screwed over by the committee.

I agree that our resume is 3 seed quality, but I have a hard time saying we're going to be "screwed" based on how poorly we've played