Tourney Chances after FSU loss

[swish7]

I'm no expert on this stuff, but it does not seems like we have many chances for quality wins. We have quite a few chances for wins. Looking at the teams whom have inferior records to our current record, and we could easily get to 19 wins. However, not sure what is a quality win outside of NC, and given they drummed us by 40, not much of a chance of that win.

But, if we beat all the teams with worse records than us, and split the rest (big if), and get one in the ACC, that has to be good enough, no? 23-10? Or, is this bubble time?

• NC State 13-6
• @ Boston College 11-8
• @ Wake Forest 13-6
• Louisville 6-13
• Clemson 13-5
• 3 North Carolina 16-3
• @ Georgia Tech 9-10
• @ NC State 13-6
• Notre Dame 7-12
• Virginia Tech 12-7
• @ Louisville 6-13
• @ Clemson 13-5

 

[Wrinkle]

12-8 in conference and we're sweating but probably get in

 

[NineOneSeven]

20% chance.

 

[PoppyHart]

Chaminade game never happened.

 

[stlorange]

I think we’re a lock……for the NIT…..

 

[Cuse181]

Team rankings had Syracuse go from 70% to 50%. Magic number for them is 21 which gives Syracuse a 95% chance

 

[Marty McFly]

I would not be too comfortable sitting at 21 wins

 

[Cuse181]

I would not be too comfortable sitting at 21 wins

I am just the messenger. TO be clear, 21 wins includes the expected wins (Louisville x2, Notre Dame at Home, NC State at home, and VT at home) Plus wins over -- when going by % chances -- Ga Tech Away, BC Away, and Clemson at home. Does that = a tourney bid? Probably not, but you take a blended average of all the games outstanding and assume that 21 wins would mathematically require a good win to offset any bad losses and you have potential makings of a resume. Does that mean its going to happen? Probably not as team rankings gives Syracuse a 14% chance to win 21+ games, but if it does there is, again mathematically, significant potential.

 

[Madbiker]

Team rankings had Syracuse go from 70% to 50%. Magic number for them is 21 which gives Syracuse a 95% chance

The Chaminade win doesn't count toward tourney consideration. No D2 games count.

 

[Cuse181]

The Chaminade win doesn't count toward tourney consideration. No D2 games count.

The site says 21, get to 21 however you’d like

 

[Eric15]

If we lose tomorrow, I feel like this may be another season where we have to win the ACCT to make the tournament.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

I think there are still too many variables, but as of now I believe an at-large bid will require 4-2 or better against the NC State/Clemson/Wake/UNC combo and a sweep of Louisville and Notre Dame. Anything less than that will require at least two wins in the ACCT to merit serious consideration. The ACC is a far cry from what it used to be.

 

[Fly Rodder]

I would not be too comfortable sitting at 21 wins

It's how they've lost games that's going to be the nail in the coffin .. utterly non-competitive. The rest of the teams in the ACC aren't much better, but they haven't looked as consistently bad as SU has in losses.

 

[tbonezone]

sad to say this as a long time fan. but i am at the point to where a loss in the ACC tourney final game is a major step forward. a decade plus and we ain't even played in one ? great move jumping from BE.

 

[dasher]

sad to say this as a long time fan. but i am at the point to where a loss in the ACC tourney final game is a major step forward. a decade plus and we ain't even played in one ? great move jumping from BE.

Just to be clear, you think we should have stayed in the Big East? And do what with our football program?

 

[AlaskaSU]

Scores count. Close wins do not make up for blowout losses. Our chances are slim to ... As a member of the ACC we cannot out recruit the good ol boys. Perhaps Red will be a rain maker or a new ACC will put us on firmer ground?

 

[kirbivore]

0.0

 

[FrancoPizza]

sad to say this as a long time fan. but i am at the point to where a loss in the ACC tourney final game is a major step forward. a decade plus and we ain't even played in one ? great move jumping from BE.

You were fine until the last sentence

 

[OrlandoCuse]

We have to get to 22 or 23 wins, including ACCT games to feel comfortable. 20 or 21 wins is bubble. Less than that won’t get it done.

 

[jncuse]

Team rankings had Syracuse go from 70% to 50%. Magic number for them is 21 which gives Syracuse a 95% chance

95% seems a bit high to me... and it seems like the 21 wins does include the Chaminade game and also includes ACC tournament games under their method.

I have had 12-8 as our 50/50 number as a guess entering the ACC tournament. But to then not win any games after that -- as I said 21 is possible, but 95% certainty seems high.

To be honest I have never looking at teamrankings.com to track how valid these guesses are. I suppose I could use archive.org to look at last year's misses and where the projections were at last year at this time... assuming I have plenty of time on hand.