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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 5252171, member: 1969"]
We were #106 after Youngstown St (went and checked archive.org) and we have only moved up to #100.  You are correct in assuming we should have moved up further if it was purely based on this year's data as they were good margin losses.  And in a "current year" data model we probably did move up quite a bit.

[B]TLDR - Just see the bolded below[/B]
The reason the move up is not that quick is the "preseason weights" impact declines after each game which work against us.  Our preseason rank of around #65, becomes less and less of a factor in our rank.

KP's model has some preseason weights for the first 8 to 10 games (per his own words), that roll up by game.   How he rolls it off, I'm not sure but let's say he rolls off 12% per game.   He has to do that to allow the system to run to start, and also doesn't want stupid ranks after 2 or 3 games.    [I][U] Because after 3 games if we used current year data only we were probably closer to #180-200than #100... just guessing here,[/U][/I]

After Game 1:  12% current year, 88% preseason
Game 2 : 24/70
Game 3: 36/64
Game 4: 48/52
Game 5:  60/40

So after 3 games our current season data (which is worse than our preseason rank) was still only 36% of our KP. 
But now after 5 games current season data to 60%..

[B]So while we were improving our current season data by playing Texas Tech and Texas well, our preseason weight (which was keeping our KP ranking higher) was starting to decline in importance from game 3 to game 5.   So the two factors together are the reason we didn't move up as high as one would expect.[/B]
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