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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 5587260, member: 1969"]
11 is the bubble number in my view.   Not saying it gets you in.  It's my preliminary in the discussion number.

Clemson could fall out of Q1, but SMU can rise in too.  The ACC is not weak as prior years (at least through month 1 in OOC) such that teams in the ACC could actually move up in NET once the season starts if they do well in the ACC    In the last 3 years, there was NET degradation come conference play.   That won't happen this year... in fact the avg NET might build slightly after conference starts.

As for today's NET its quite fluid, and is only 7 games of data impacted by an outlier.   If they get to 11-7 in the ACC, its going to move up.  It might not be in the 40's though.

I see the following as a fairy decent bubble resume (assuming a loss tonight, and a clean OCC slate otherwise)

11-7 in ACC
3 Q1 wins (or 2, if 1 is a marguee victory)
0 bad losses

If we use today's NET's, its 8 Q1, 3 Q2, 7 Q3.  I do expect that 7 number to fall to 4-5 by season's end due to NET building off each other in confernce.  Helps power conferences that did well enough in OOC.

So say it ends up 8/5/5.

Obviously we need to win those 5 Q3 games to have a clean slate.
3-2 in Q2
3-5 in Q1 (or 2 if is a premium win like at Duke or at Louisville)

Is it a great resume.  No.  It's not what we want, but bubble teams have warts.
I'll hit on that in another post.
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