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[QUOTE="HRE Otto IV, post: 1867196, member: 5685"]
I wonder what the math says is the best outcome. It might be the PAT.

If you kick the PAT you cannot lose in regulation. OT is a crap shoot that should be avoided and should not be a fall back option. PATs are not 100% but it isn't far from that number. So assuming the PAT and that you give up a TD, there is roughly a 50% chance you win (stop 2 pt conversion) in regulation and a 50% chance you go to OT. Then in OT it will be about 50/50 so overall you have a 75% chance of winning, a 25% chance of losing in OT, and a 0.0% chance of losing in regulation.

If you go for 2 then there is a 50% chance that the game is over right then and there. However if you miss the conversion and give up a TD one of two things can happen. You can go to OT and end up with the same 75%-25%-0% as above, or your opponent can go for a 2 point conversion. In which case it becomes 75%-0%-25% as the possible outcomes.

I would think that the actual numbers on the subject would say that you increase the chances of winning by a slim margin. Certainly not a significant one. While the chances of losing would be slightly less overall, you would be significantly increasing the chances that you lose in regulation. At that point you have to think risk/reward. Is it worth a slight increase in winning to risk losing in regulation? I wouldn't think so. If you lose in OT you can tip your cap to the other team. If you lose in regulation you will 2nd guess the decision.
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