TV Guys Your Opine is Requested

[TexanMark]

Below is a pretty solid quantifiable post on why they think the BE will strike gold with the bidding between these sports networks...I actually think their smartest play is to get on NBC/NBC Sports for Tier One and ESPN for Tier 2 +3

What say you TV guys on the board?

My take is I can't believe I pay $1 a month for Versus (NBC Sports)...yuck!
..............
From the csnbbs board
http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=572920&pid=7959272#pid7959272

Here is a detailed and quantified explanation of what is going on behind the scenes by a poster who obviously knows the broadcasting business:

http://mbd.*********/mb.aspx?s=215&=2804&t=9016029&p=4

The TV business is really very simple to understand. ESPN charges cable/sat. providers $4.59 per subscriber in addition to advertising rates for national and regional commercials. There is usually an 80/20 split where 20% of the total advertising time is held back for the local affiliates/cable/sat. providers to sell local advertising. A college football game provides roughly 120 30 second ad spots per broadcast. That means there is roughly 96 national/regional commercials and 24 local commercials per broadcast though this can obviously vary between channels and providers at very lucrative rates. For example, ABC charged $85K per 30 second spot for college football in primetime last season.

If NBC wins the Big East contract and we assume an 8 game conference schedule and all 14 teams played two home and two road non-conference games, Comcast/NBC would have access to 56 conference games and 28 home non-conference games for a total of 84 football games. If the Big East holds back at least 14 games for a conference network and each school retained the rights to one game under their Tier 3 rights that would still leave 56 games for NBC and NBC Sports. If NBC broadcasted 18 Big East games and NBC sports broadcast the remaining 38 games assuming the 80/20 split with local providers that would mean that NBC and NBC Sports would have roughly 96 spots per game to sell. If we assume NBC would only charge $50K per national spot (41% discount to ABC) and that NBC Sports would only charge $8K per national spot that would mean each game on NBC would be worth roughly $4.8 million and each game on NBC Sports would be worth $768K for a yearly total of $115 million for regular season football alone on the low end.

In addition, NBC/ NBC Sports would have the football championship, Big East regular season and tournament bastketball, and the Big East's olympic sports where the majority of the broadcasts would originate from top 50 television markets across all time zones. All of this Big East programming will drive additional cheap programming such as pre and post game shows, coaches shows, highlight shows, game rebroadcasts, etc. Comcast/NBC needs to drive eyeballs to NBC Sports as they are currently only getting $0.30 per subscriber (per month) while ESPN is getting $4.59 per subscriber (per month). If NBC Sports can just get it's carriage rates up $1.00 per subscriber to $1.30 per month that would result in roughly $80 million more in monthly revenue for NBC Sports based on the fact they are in roughly 80 million households. In addition, since Comcast owns NBC/NBC Sports the carriage rates for NBC Sports is just intercompany profit and the next time they get into a carriage rate fight with ESPN they will have a competing low cost sports channel to leverage against ESPN. The Big East is crucial for Comcast/NBC from both a content standpoint as well as the ability push back on the seemingly annual carriage rate increases demanded by ESPN.

Therefore it is a no brainer why the named media sources (they understand these numbers) all claim that if the Big East can hold it's membership together they will get a huge payday while only unnamed sources (ESPN anyone?) say otherwise. Fans (like Quo) look at the names on the jerseys and calculate the values of the conferences while the tv executives are looking at the much bigger picture. It has been painfully obvious that the Big East is being remade for the benefit of Comcast/NBC to drive up the number households and the carriage rates for NBC Sports. The folks at ESPN also know this so they have gone scorched earth on the Big East ......

 

[44PRIDE]

Tex,
With all respect due, I'd rather sit around smelling my own farts than talk about the Big East television contract...

 

[Orangemen]

I see a couple of leaps in there.

First, they used abc's prime time ad rates as a baseline, then assumed the BE gets over half of that. I'll say I'm skeptical. That abc game is usually one of the top 5 games of the week, and it gets a full days worth of promo on espn, espn2, and abc.

Second, they assume that he BE is willing to bury its conference tournament on NBC sports. That might be the single dumbest move the conference could ever make.

Third, there is a statement that implies BE fball could somehow help NBC sports increase their carriage rates by 433%. Again, I'll just say I'm skeptical.

 

[Millhouse]

I see a couple of leaps in there.

First, they used abc's prime time ad rates as a baseline, then assumed the BE gets over half of that. I'll say I'm skeptical. That abc game is usually one of the top 5 games of the week, and it gets a full days worth of promo on espn, espn2, and abc.

Second, they assume that he BE is willing to bury its conference tournament on NBC sports. That might be the single dumbest move the conference could ever make.

Third, there is a statement that implies BE fball could somehow help NBC sports increase their carriage rates by 133%. Again, I'll just say I'm skeptical.

agree. look at the games on ABC on Saturday nights last year. an ad during a big east game on nbc sports isn't worth anywhere near 60% the cost of an ad on ABC for these games.

• September 3: #3 Oregon 27 vs. #4 LSU 40 – Cowboys Classic at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
• September 17: #1 Oklahoma 23 at #5 Florida State 13
• September 24: #2 LSU 47 at #16 West Virginia 21
• October 1: #8 Nebraska 17 at #7 Wisconsin 48
• October 8: Ohio State 27 at #14 Nebraska 34
• October 22:
  • Texas Tech 41 at #3 Oklahoma 38 (split-national)[30]
  • #22 Washington 21 at #7 Stanford 65 (split-national)
  • Many of the homes scheduled to receive Texas Tech–Oklahoma instead saw Washington–Stanford, as a thunderstorm delayed the start of the former game, and most affiliates stuck with the latter even after the storm cleared.
• October 29:
  • #4 Stanford 56 at #20 USC 48 (3OT) (split-national)[31]
  • #6 Clemson 17 at Georgia Tech 31 (split-national)
• November 5:
  • #17 Kansas State 45 at #3 Oklahoma State 52 (split-national, with reverse mirror on ESPN2)[32]
  • Notre Dame 24 at Wake Forest 17 (split-national, with reverse mirror on ESPN2)[33]
• November 12: #6 Oregon 53 at #3 Stanford 30
• November 19:
  • #18 USC 38 at #4 Oregon 35 (split-national)[34]
  • #5 Oklahoma 38 at #25 Baylor 45 (split-national)
• November 26: #22 Notre Dame 14 at #4 Stanford 28
• December 3: #13 Oklahoma 10 at #3 Oklahoma State 44

 

[KaiserUEO]

whoever gives the newnewnewbigeast $$, will be looking for a job, as they will have just bankrupt their tv channel in 4 years.

 

[TexanMark]

Awesome feedback...I'm still think they get around $10-12M a year per team best case on ESPN (ESPN has incentive to keep it away from NBC or FOX) but the BE will most likely have to make some concessions to get decent $$$ from ESPN (more Wed, Friday, ESPNU games)...Their best option to me would be to link up with ND on NBC Staturday and get 5-6 dates on NBC when ND is away and Tier Two goes to ESPN (they need that for Basketball)...Monday night is so vital for their basketball cachet.

 

[TexanMark]

whoever gives the newnewnewbigeast $$, will be looking for a job, as they will have just bankrupt their tv channel in 4 years.

Sometimes in business you have to plug your nose and keep underperforming units open

I think ESPN won't be heartbroken to lose the nBE but if they can get them relatively cheap they have a handful of teams that can get a few eyeballz...especially basketball and maybe Louisvile and Boise FB.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Sometimes in business you have to plug your nose and keep underperforming units open

I think ESPN won't be heartbroken to lose the nBE but if they can get them relatively cheap they have a handful of teams that can get a few eyeballz...especially basketball and maybe Louisvile and Boise FB.

i will request a refund and allow them to blackout any bigusa game on my tv.

useless, useless, useless.

 

[TexanMark]

i will request a refund and allow them to blackout any bigusa game on my tv.

useless, useless, useless.

Get this...the OP said I'm paying $1 a month to watch Rodeo and old MWC reruns on Versus (NBCSports)...sigh...like everyone here you probably only watch about 6-12 channels among your hundreds.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Get this...the OP said I'm paying $1 a month to watch Rodeo and old MWC reruns on Versus (NBCSports)...sigh...like everyone here you probably only watch about 6-12 channels among your hundreds.

i watch minor league rodeo from pakistan before id watch a bigeast game.

 

[baggerbob]

If the Big East doesn't sign with ESPN the basketball side will go in the toilet by not having enough exposure.

 

[HtownOrange]

Get this...the OP said I'm paying $1 a month to watch Rodeo and old MWC reruns on Versus (NBCSports)...sigh...like everyone here you probably only watch about 6-12 channels among your hundreds.

i watch minor league rodeo from pakistan before id watch a bigeast game.

Hey! I got $$ on Abdu, Abdo. Achm, whatever, the guy with the white head wrap to win the whole shootin' match in Karachi.

 

[sutomcat]

If the Big East doesn't sign with ESPN the basketball side will go in the toilet by not having enough exposure.

This to me is the single biggest issue for the Big East. They will want their basketball games on ESPN, they will want Big Monday on ESPN retained, they want the Big East Tournament featured in prime time on ESPN, but I don't think ESPN will be willing to give them all that and let them take football to NBC.

In the end, the BE might have to choose between a low payday from ESPN, with low exposure for football and relatively high exposure for basketball, and a high payday from NBC, with high exposure there (really high exposure), but total banishment from ESPN.

In the end, I think the BE has to go with the money and the risk and hope like hell that NBC can get people to watch BE sports. If they go that way, I will be interested in the length of the contract. It could be a short one.

 

[mscanlo]

ESPN is Disney's most profitable arm. NBC (and CBS) is trying to chip away at the profit but it can only be done slowly due to long-term contracts. NBC isn't going to get the $4+ carriage rates like ESPN right away, but they need a platform (the Big East) to get started and slowly work their way up. I don't knowledge on whether NBC thinks their is room to grow the sports media industry, or if they are trying to steal share away from ESPN (i would assume more of the former since sports continue to globalize ie. soccer, american sports being shown overseas, etc).

i also think there is a lot of bias towards ESPN, and thinking NBC Sports can never be ESPN. What exactly does ESPN make on their own that is so valuable and that you can't miss watching? PTI? SportsCenter? ESPN doesn't make the sporting events, they just distribute them. Granted there are a lot more subscribers of ESPN than NBCSports, but if the number of subscribers was the same, and, hypothetically NBC and ESPN both had rights to the SEC, why can't NBC get as much ad revenue and carriage fees as ESPN? Why is the Big East worth less to NBC than it is to ESPN (assuming they have the same number of subscribers)?

 

[TexanMark]

BTW, I misread the post and Versus (NBC Sports) now only gets 30 cents a month carriage...I feel much better--I'm only overpaying 28 cents a month. The nBE fans thinks it could get up to $1 a month.

 

[Orangemen]

Regarding the BET. I remember when the BET went completely to ESPN. My first reaction was that they took a step back because now they were off network TV. Clearly, in hindsight, it was the right move, because Championship week is ESPN now.

The BE is probably facing a similar decision now, with whether to move the BET off ESPN to NBC sports. Now sure, they may be able to build something with NBC sports to help keep them relevant, but it won't be easy. And let's face it, the bball league is not dealing from a position of strength. It is clearly at the end of it's most recent golden age, and it's about to take a big hit with Houston, SMU, and UCF coming on board to water down the product. SU and Pitt are gone. UConn would leave if they could, Louisville will leave if they could. Those are the 4 teams that you pay the big bucks for if you're putting this on TV.

IMO, this is not the time for the conference to go network building. The ACC is about to take back the mantle of best bball conference, and I'm sure ESPN could convince the ACC to take the cushy Friday night semi's and Saturday night finals setup that the BE now owns. Leaving for NBC Sports could be a killer for this conference.

 

[TexanMark]

ESPN is Disney's most profitable arm. NBC (and CBS) is trying to chip away at the profit but it can only be done slowly due to long-term contracts. NBC isn't going to get the $4+ carriage rates like ESPN right away, but they need a platform (the Big East) to get started and slowly work their way up. I don't knowledge on whether NBC thinks their is room to grow the sports media industry, or if they are trying to steal share away from ESPN (i would assume more of the former since sports continue to globalize ie. soccer, american sports being shown overseas, etc).

i also think there is a lot of bias towards ESPN, and thinking NBC Sports can never be ESPN. What exactly does ESPN make on their own that is so valuable and that you can't miss watching? PTI? SportsCenter? ESPN doesn't make the sporting events, they just distribute them. Granted there are a lot more subscribers of ESPN than NBCSports, but if the number of subscribers was the same, and, hypothetically NBC and ESPN both had rights to the SEC, why can't NBC get as much ad revenue and carriage fees as ESPN? Why is the Big East worth less to NBC than it is to ESPN (assuming they have the same number of subscribers)?

Why can't RC Cola sell more Soda than Coca-Cola?

 

[mscanlo]

Why can't RC Cola sell more Soda than Coca-Cola?

wasn't really the argument i was trying to make. Coke technically has a secret formula that differentiates itself (even though most consumers choose RC Cola in a taste test). ESPN has more subscribers than NBC Sports, but i don't think that is an impossible problem NBC to fix. plus, most people are satisfied with Coke/Pepsi and aren't looking for another drink. People are starting to get fed up with ESPN.

 

[Moontan]

BTW, I misread the post and Versus (NBC Sports) now only gets 30 cents a month carriage...I feel much better--I'm only overpaying 28 cents a month. The nBE fans thinks it could get up to $1 a month.

The Tour de France has to be worth something. It's worth $3.60/year to me at least... easily.