Undefeated you say? Let's talk numbers...

[imdevo]

I posted this on the cuseorange forum prior to the Seton Hall game. So all these odds changed a bit and I will update them this weekend. But I thought i'd share with the gang:

So I took our schedule and broke it down opponent by opponent and found similar match ups (based on current rpi) and converted each vegas line to a percentage of "winning". I included each percentage for each game:

Dec 27 vsHALL 7:00 PM ET .78
Jan 1 @DEP 5:00 PM ET .85
Jan 4 @PROV 9:00 PM ET .88
Jan 7 vs#10 MARQ 4:00 PM ET .70
Jan 11 @VILL 7:00 PM ET .71
Jan 14 vsPROV 6:00 PM ET .92
Jan 16 vs#13 PITT 7:30 PM ET .72
Jan 21 @ND 6:00 PM ET .69
Jan 23 @CIN 7:00 PM ET .72
Jan 28 vsWVU 1:00 PM ET .88
Feb 4 @SJU 12:00 PM ET .79
Feb 8 vs#16 GTWN 7:00 PM ET .78
Feb 11 vs#9 CONN 1:00 PM ET .68
Feb 13 @#4 LOU 7:00 PM ET .46
Feb 19 @RUTG 1:00 PM ET .84
Feb 22 vsUSF 7:00 PM ET .88
Feb 25 @#9 CONN 9:00 PM ET .46
Mar 3 vs#4 LOU 4:00 PM ET .54

So by doing some quick math the (very rough rough estimate) of SU going undefeated is: .29%. Which isn't very surprising giving the talent of the big east along with the tough road games we'll be playing.

However. What is very surprising is that the big east is so stacked up that our chances of making it to the marquette game undefeated would be 58%. Which is almost a coin flip but most of us just take it for granted (since it's seton hall, depaul and providence)

Looking a little more in depth the ncaa committee looks at the last 5 games (or so they claimed last year if i'm not mistaken) and our probabilities are 8.4% in going undefeated. About 23% going 4-1. About 51% going 3-2. About 49% going 2-3. About 23% going 1-4 and 8.4% playing at 0-5.

Obviously this will change once rpi continues to be updated throughout the year but i was just very curious as to what it would take to be "undefeated" and needless to say...not good.

Now if we were to lose 3-4 games the odds jump much higher and lands at about 40% or so. Which is very doable. This does not take into consideration the intangibles and are just raw numbers so I would put good money on that bet.

 

[Knicks411]

I don't think the committee looks at any "last x" games anymore. I think it went from 1o to 12, and then got thrown out.

However. What is very surprising is that the big east is so stacked up that our chances of making it to the marquette game undefeated would be 58%. Which is almost a coin flip but most of us just take it for granted (since it's seton hall, depaul and providence)

Well, we already beat Seton Hall. Pomeroy gives us a 92% chance to beat Depaul, and 91% to beat Providence. So about 85% chance of winning the next 2. Chance of an unbeaten record is 4.1%, per KP.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

So the odds of us going undefeated are 340 to 1!!!

$5 in Vegas will win you $1700. Sounds like a fun bet to make. Talk about a Parlay!

 

[Victory Lap]

For the lazy folks out there, just take note that Rutgers beat #10 FL. Any given day, a team can play far above or below their talent level. If both happens at once, we'll lose. Our depth makes that less likely to happen, but we'll probably lose a few. Isn't there another thread on this topic? Mods - could we merge the two?

 

[CusefanATL]

I posted this on the cuseorange forum prior to the Seton Hall game. So all these odds changed a bit and I will update them this weekend. But I thought i'd share with the gang:

So I took our schedule and broke it down opponent by opponent and found similar match ups (based on current rpi) and converted each vegas line to a percentage of "winning". I included each percentage for each game:

Dec 27 vsHALL 7:00 PM ET .78
Jan 1 @DEP 5:00 PM ET .85
Jan 4 @PROV 9:00 PM ET .88
Jan 7 vs#10 MARQ 4:00 PM ET .70
Jan 11 @VILL 7:00 PM ET .71
Jan 14 vsPROV 6:00 PM ET .92
Jan 16 vs#13 PITT 7:30 PM ET .72
Jan 21 @ND 6:00 PM ET .69
Jan 23 @CIN 7:00 PM ET .72
Jan 28 vsWVU 1:00 PM ET .88
Feb 4 @SJU 12:00 PM ET .79
Feb 8 vs#16 GTWN 7:00 PM ET .78
Feb 11 vs#9 CONN 1:00 PM ET .68
Feb 13 @#4 LOU 7:00 PM ET .46
Feb 19 @RUTG 1:00 PM ET .84
Feb 22 vsUSF 7:00 PM ET .88
Feb 25 @#9 CONN 9:00 PM ET .46
Mar 3 vs#4 LOU 4:00 PM ET .54

So by doing some quick math the (very rough rough estimate) of SU going undefeated is: .29%. Which isn't very surprising giving the talent of the big east along with the tough road games we'll be playing.

However. What is very surprising is that the big east is so stacked up that our chances of making it to the marquette game undefeated would be 58%. Which is almost a coin flip but most of us just take it for granted (since it's seton hall, depaul and providence)

Looking a little more in depth the ncaa committee looks at the last 5 games (or so they claimed last year if i'm not mistaken) and our probabilities are 8.4% in going undefeated. About 23% going 4-1. About 51% going 3-2. About 49% going 2-3. About 23% going 1-4 and 8.4% playing at 0-5.

Obviously this will change once rpi continues to be updated throughout the year but i was just very curious as to what it would take to be "undefeated" and needless to say...not good.

Now if we were to lose 3-4 games the odds jump much higher and lands at about 40% or so. Which is very doable. This does not take into consideration the intangibles and are just raw numbers so I would put good money on that bet.

The Big East is not the normal Big East this year. It is an average BCS league.

 

[HarrisonJBounel]

I posted this on the cuseorange forum prior to the Seton Hall game. So all these odds changed a bit and I will update them this weekend. But I thought i'd share with the gang:

So I took our schedule and broke it down opponent by opponent and found similar match ups (based on current rpi) and converted each vegas line to a percentage of "winning". I included each percentage for each game:

Dec 27 vsHALL 7:00 PM ET .78
Jan 1 @DEP 5:00 PM ET .85
Jan 4 @PROV 9:00 PM ET .88
Jan 7 vs#10 MARQ 4:00 PM ET .70
Jan 11 @VILL 7:00 PM ET .71
Jan 14 vsPROV 6:00 PM ET .92
Jan 16 vs#13 PITT 7:30 PM ET .72
Jan 21 @ND 6:00 PM ET .69
Jan 23 @CIN 7:00 PM ET .72
Jan 28 vsWVU 1:00 PM ET .88
Feb 4 @SJU 12:00 PM ET .79
Feb 8 vs#16 GTWN 7:00 PM ET .78
Feb 11 vs#9 CONN 1:00 PM ET .68
Feb 13 @#4 LOU 7:00 PM ET .46
Feb 19 @RUTG 1:00 PM ET .84
Feb 22 vsUSF 7:00 PM ET .88
Feb 25 @#9 CONN 9:00 PM ET .46
Mar 3 vs#4 LOU 4:00 PM ET .54

So by doing some quick math the (very rough rough estimate) of SU going undefeated is: .29%. Which isn't very surprising giving the talent of the big east along with the tough road games we'll be playing.

However. What is very surprising is that the big east is so stacked up that our chances of making it to the marquette game undefeated would be 58%. Which is almost a coin flip but most of us just take it for granted (since it's seton hall, depaul and providence)

Looking a little more in depth the ncaa committee looks at the last 5 games (or so they claimed last year if i'm not mistaken) and our probabilities are 8.4% in going undefeated. About 23% going 4-1. About 51% going 3-2. About 49% going 2-3. About 23% going 1-4 and 8.4% playing at 0-5.

Obviously this will change once rpi continues to be updated throughout the year but i was just very curious as to what it would take to be "undefeated" and needless to say...not good.

Now if we were to lose 3-4 games the odds jump much higher and lands at about 40% or so. Which is very doable. This does not take into consideration the intangibles and are just raw numbers so I would put good money on that bet.

Good analysis. Play poker much? Online? If so, where, please. Looking for a site that takes US players. Thanks.