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Message: [QUOTE="imdevo, post: 134988, member: 1759"] I posted this on the cuseorange forum prior to the Seton Hall game. So all these odds changed a bit and I will update them this weekend. But I thought i'd share with the gang: So I took our schedule and broke it down opponent by opponent and found similar match ups (based on current rpi) and converted each vegas line to a percentage of "winning". I included each percentage for each game: Dec 27 vsHALL 7:00 PM ET [B].78[/B] Jan 1 @DEP 5:00 PM ET [B].85[/B] Jan 4 @PROV 9:00 PM ET [B].88[/B] Jan 7 vs#10 MARQ 4:00 PM ET [B].70[/B] Jan 11 @VILL 7:00 PM ET [B].71[/B] Jan 14 vsPROV 6:00 PM ET [B].92[/B] Jan 16 vs#13 PITT 7:30 PM ET [B].72[/B] Jan 21 @ND 6:00 PM ET [B].69[/B] Jan 23 @CIN 7:00 PM ET [B].72[/B] Jan 28 vsWVU 1:00 PM ET [B].88[/B] Feb 4 @SJU 12:00 PM ET [B].79[/B] Feb 8 vs#16 GTWN 7:00 PM ET [B].78[/B] Feb 11 vs#9 CONN 1:00 PM ET [B].68[/B] Feb 13 @#4 LOU 7:00 PM ET [B].46[/B] Feb 19 @RUTG 1:00 PM ET [B].84[/B] Feb 22 vsUSF 7:00 PM ET [B].88[/B] Feb 25 @#9 CONN 9:00 PM ET [B].46[/B] Mar 3 vs#4 LOU 4:00 PM ET [B].54[/B] So by doing some quick math the (very rough rough estimate) of SU going undefeated is: [B].29%[/B]. Which isn't very surprising giving the talent of the big east along with the tough road games we'll be playing. However. What is very surprising is that the big east is so stacked up that our chances of making it to the marquette game undefeated would be [B]58%[/B]. Which is almost a coin flip but most of us just take it for granted (since it's seton hall, depaul and providence) Looking a little more in depth the ncaa committee looks at the last 5 games (or so they claimed last year if i'm not mistaken) and our probabilities are [B]8.4%[/B] in going undefeated. About [B]23%[/B] going 4-1. About [B]51%[/B] going 3-2. About [B]49%[/B] going 2-3. About [B]23%[/B] going 1-4 and [B]8.4%[/B] playing at 0-5. Obviously this will change once rpi continues to be updated throughout the year but i was just very curious as to what it would take to be "undefeated" and needless to say...not good. Now if we were to lose 3-4 games the odds jump much higher and lands at about [B]40%[/B] or so. Which is very doable. This does not take into consideration the intangibles and are just raw numbers so I would put good money on that bet. [/QUOTE]

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