Updated Bracket Matrix (adjusted for old Brackets)

[jncuse]

There is an updated bracket matrix, but it is limited in that 20 of the 75 brackets were from yesterday, which of course does not consider our victory, and may skew totals for teams like Alabama, Louisville, UCLA..

Throwing out those 20 old bracket, really clarifies things and shows you the wild fluctuations that happened yesterday. The fact that people moved up and down so much yesterday goes to show how one quality win or bad loss will totally change your fate.

You will note by throwing out old brackets, Louisville is below us, and we are really close to Alabama, Baylor and Marquette.

Out of 64

St Bonaventure 62
Texas 63 (Last Team in before yesterday)
St. Mary's 59
UCLA 56 (Last Team out, tied with Washington before yesterday)
Arizona St 54
Kansas St 56
Providence 53
USC 53
Baylor 35
Alabama 37
-------------------------
Marquette 32
Syracuse 28 (About 45% vs. nearly 0% entering yesterday)
Louisville 20
Oklahoma St 11 (0% entering yesterday)
Utah 6
Nebraska 4
LSU 3
Boise St 3
Miss St 1
Penn St 1

Others of Interest
Washington 0 (First team out tied with UCLA before yesterday)
Notre Dame 0

 

[pearl31]

There is an updated bracket matrix, but it is limited in that 20 of the 75 brackets were from yesterday, which of course does not consider our victory, and may skew totals for teams like Alabama, Louisville, UCLA..

Throwing out those 20 old bracket, really clarifies things and shows you the wild fluctuations that happened yesterday. The fact that people moved up and down so much yesterday goes to show how one quality win or bad loss will totally change your fate.

You will note by throwing out old brackets, Louisville is below us, and we are really close to Alabama, Baylor and Marquette.

Out of 55
St Bonaventure 53
Texas 53 (Last Team in before yesterday)
St. Mary's 51
UCLA 49 (Last Team out, tied with Washington before yesterday)
Arizona St 48
Kansas St 48
Providence 45
USC 44
Baylor 33
Alabama 32
-------------------------
Marquette 25
Syracuse 24 (About 45% vs. nearly 0% entering yesterday)
Louisville 17
Oklahoma St 10 (0% entering yesterday)
Utah 5
Nebraska 3
LSU 3
Boise St 2
Miss St 1
Penn St 1

Others of Interest
Washington 0 (First team out tied with UCLA before yesterday)
Notre Dame 0

that feels about right. surprising ND is on 0 right now, though

 

[NineOneSeven]

Let's beat wake!

 

[jncuse]

IF, there are no bubble busters, and a few other teams around us also do not get a quality win in the conference tourneys, there is a chance 1 win will be enough. But we would be fully at the mercy of committee judgment, and while not near 0%, certainly lower than 50% in my view.

But let us see how the games play out. Another thing to note

We play our key game on Wednesday. Teams from other conferences that start a day later and are smaller may not have their key matchups until Friday.

Basically, we beat Wake and our resume will be the baseline for comparison. We might find that we have been clearly passed as the weak progresses, or whether we have a mixed chance entering Sunday. Of course we could beat Wake/UNC and sleep well.

 

[jncuse]

that feels about right. surprising ND is on 0 right now, though

I scanned the list a few times up and down and I could not see them. I was expecting them to have some as well based on the media push.

 

[pearl31]

Another thing to note

We play our key game on Wednesday. Teams from other conferences that start a day later and are smaller may not have their key matchups until Friday.

Basically, we beat Wake and our resume will be the baseline for comparison.

yep - kind of like Penn St / Nebraska right now

 

[jdubs30]

Jerry Palm said today, that even though we're an 11th seed today, he thinks we still have to beat UNC to get in. Like jncuse said, what we have to do is very much dependent on what teams around us do/bubble busters. Obviously, in the unlikely event that everyone else completely collapses around us, 1 win might do it - but we can't count on that.

 

[Chris02M]

Nd has a case if they can beat pitt, vt, and duke. I would of thought 2 would be enough but beating pitt twice with bonzi back does nothing and virginia tech is not quite good enough. Hopefully bc beats them to make it easier

 

[SU Dreaming]

Win 2 games and we are in, don't think 1 will do it

 

[Jasoncuse]

We aren't getting in without beating UNC. There will be other teams playing their way in behind us, so even if we're "in" right now, we have to win to stay in.

 

[jdubs30]

We aren't getting in without beating UNC. There will be other teams playing their way in behind us, so even if we're "in" right now, we have to win to stay in.

Nothing is guaranteed either way right now. We could beat UNC and still not get in; we could lose to UNC and get in. We'd certainly need EVERYTHING to fall nearly perfect if we lost to UNC. But it's one of those things that every year there seems to be a team or 2 that get in that no one had in, so you never really do know

 

[pearl31]

We aren't getting in without beating UNC. There will be other teams playing their way in behind us, so even if we're "in" right now, we have to win to stay in.

absolute proclamations like this are funny

 

[Chris02M]

root for colorado vs arizona state on wednesday as with a loss i would think they are out

 

[pearl31]

root for colorado vs arizona state on wednesday as with a loss i would think they are out

you could be right, and yeah it certainly wouldn't hurt for asu to lose right away, but I think they're safely in

 

[Chris02M]

We aren't getting in without beating UNC. There will be other teams playing their way in behind us, so even if we're "in" right now, we have to win to stay in.

in principal you are right but there arent a lot of teams behind us that will be playing with serious cases barring deep runs. The bubble seems to have settled with 4 spots with 10 teams( usc,ucla,arizona st, baylor,marquette, syracuse, oklahoma st, nd, bama, louisville) I have st bon, texas and providence as in regardless of this week because they were clear ahead of the last group based on my evaluation

 

[Chris02M]

you could be right, and yeah it certainly wouldn't hurt for asu to lose right away, but I think they're safely in

8-11 in a down pac 12 they wouldnt be a lock

 

[pearl31]

8-11 in a down pac 12 they wouldnt be a lock

yeah going back through their resume I'm inclined to agree w you - I had been thinking that had at least 4 q1 wins but they have 3... though I would say that two of those are of the "ultra-marquee" variety: neutral Xavier and @ Phog Allen - those 2 alone could allow them entry