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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 4207471, member: 289"] SCOPING IT OUT - 2022 Here is a listing of the NCAA field with each team’s record, their accumulated points against ranked teams and then as a ranked team against unraked teams, (see my “Against Ranked Teams” post). The points against ranked teams is an indicator of a team ability to compete with top competition and the points as a ranked team against unranked teams is a measure of consistency- do they play down to their opponents or stick to their own level no matter the opponent. I’ll use both to inform my picks. I also added the points together for that that may be worth. Note: “none” means they didn’t play or never were a ranked team. “0” would mean that they did or were but that the points came out even. 1 seeds Gonzaga 26-3 +124 +84 = +208 Baylor 26-6 +122 -102 = +20 Arizona 31-3 +146 -42 = +104 Kansas 28-6 +108 -133 = -25 16 seeds Georgia State 18-10 none none = none Norfolk State 24-6 none none = none Wright State 21-13 -24 none = -24 Bryant 22-9 -56 none = -56 Texas Southern 18-12 +8 none = +8 Texas A&M- Corpus Christi 23-11 none none = none 2 seeds Duke 28-6 +52 -206 = -154 Kentucky 26-7 +106 +80 = +186 Villanova 26-7 +162 -7 = +155 Auburn 27-5 +51 -93 = -42 15 seeds CSU Fullerton 21-10 none none = none St. Peters 19-11 none none = none Delaware 22-12 none none = none Jacksonville State 21-10 +14 none = +14 3 seeds Texas Tech 25-9 +199 +8 = +207 Purdue 27-7 +107 -196 = -89 Tennessee 26-7 +154 +172 = +326 Wisconsin 24-7 +71 -81 = -10 14 seeds Montana State 27-7 none none = none Yale 19-11 -17 none = -17 Longwood 26-6 none none = none Colgate 23-11 none none = none 4 seeds Arkansas 25-6 +101 -42 = +59 UCLA 25-7 +132 -95 = +37 Illinois 22-9 +94 -62 = +32 Providence 25-5 +65 -66 = -1 13 seeds Vermont 28-5 -6 none = -6 Akron 24-9 +8 none = +8 Chattanooga 27-7 none none = none South Dakota State 30-4 -4 + none = -4 5 seeds Connecticut 23-9 +61 +151 = +212 St. Mary’s 25-7 +55 +21 = +76 Houston 29-5 +16 +94 = +110 Iowa 26-9 +61 +86 = +147 12 seeds New Mexico State 26-6 none none = none Wyoming 25-8 -14 +4 = -10 Alabama-Birmingham 27-7 none none = none Richmond 23-12 none none = none 6 seeds Alabama 19-13 +135 -51 = +84 Texas 21-11 +108 +68 = +176 Colorado State 25-5 none -41 = -41 Louisiana State 23-12 +52 +1 = +53 11 seeds Rutgers 18-13 +116 none = +116 Notre Dame 22-10 +23 none = +23 Virginia Tech 23-12 +70 none = +70 Michigan 17-14 +62 -96 = -34 Iowa State 20-12 +43 +5 = +48 7 seeds Michigan State 22-12 +54 -67 = -13 Murray State 30-2 +1 +58 = +59 Ohio State 19-11 +63 -43 = +20 Southern California 26-7 +31 -43 = -12 10 seeds Davidson 27-6 +17 +4 = +21 San Francisco 24-9 +33 none = +33 Loyola-Chicago 25-7 -2 +11 = +9 U of Miami 23-10 +25 + none = +25 8 seeds Boise State 27-7 -2 none = -2 North Carolina 24-9 +35 +17 = +52 Seton Hall 21-10 +38 +53 = +91 San Diego State 23-8 +19 + none = +19 9 seeds Memphis 21-10 +80 +3 = +83 Marquette 19-12 +110 -10 = +100 Texas Christian 20-12 +134 + none = +134 Creighton 22-11 +108 none = +108 I’ll pick the teams with the better numerical records to win the two 16 seed play-in games, (why aren’t all the play-in games for 16 seeds?). So Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Bryant move on – but not very far. According to my “NCAA Seed Stats” post, “you should pick one 14, one 13, one 12 and one or two 11 seeds to win and two 10s and 9s”. So that’s my first step. I don’t like any of the 14s. But 22 of them have won in 36 years. I’d love to see Colgate beat Wisconsin but Purdue’s poor record against unranked teams stands out. I think Colgate is better than Yale so I’ll go with them. Maybe they will have a game like the one they had against us. So I’ll predict Colgate to beat Wisconsin, even though my finger-crossing days are over. Our old pals at Vermont have become a popular upset pick after winning their three America East conference games by 98-59, 74-42 and 82-43! Could their first round opponent, Arkansas have done any better than that? I’ll go with the Catamounts as my #13 seed upset pick. I don’t like the 12 seeds much. I’ll go with Indiana over Wyoming in the first four. I decided to double-check my numbers on Connecticut. They opened the season as #24 and played Central Connecticut, Coppin State, Long Island U. and Binghamton and beat those teams by a combined 163 points. They then beat #19 Auburn 115-109 in overtime. That gave them +13 points against ranked teams and +169 against unranked teams. They were 5-0. Since then they are 18-9, +48 against ranked teams and -18 against unranked teams, a total of +30. Commentators like New Mexico State a lot so I’ll pick them to top the Huskies. Rutgers created a lot of excitement when they beat four straight ranked teams, three of them at home, in early February. They’d been 12-9 going into that stret5ch and lost their next three games when it was over. I’ll pick Notre Dame to beat them in Dayton. I love the 11 seeds but under my system, I can pick only one. That’s got to be Virginia Tech after the show they put on in the ACC tournament. I need two 10 seeds. Loyola over Ohio State is a no-brainer. Michigan State went 8-8 after a 14- 2 start but I’ll bet Tom Izzo can figure out how to defend high-scoring Davidson. I’ll go with U of Miami over Southern California as my second upset at this level. I also need two 9 seeds to win. At this level, the games are a virtual toss-up so I’ll go with the match-ups that most favor the 9 teams in my Against Rank Teams numbers and that’s Memphis and Creighton. With that I’ve picked 36 of the 67 games. Next I decide on who will make it to the Final Four and who will win it. On average we’ll get two #1 seeds, a #2 seed and someone below that. I’ve already decided that my national championship favorite is Tennessee, who has performed well all your. They beat North Carolina and Arizona and haven beaten Auburn and twice beat Kentucky after an early loss to them. They’ve played 12 ranked teams and steam-rolled their unranked opponents. They are a #3 seed. So I need two #1 seeds and a #2 seed. I’d take Gonzaga and Arizona as the #1 seeds and Villanova as the #2 seed – except Arizona and Villanova are in Tennessee’s loaded bracket. I’ll have the Vols beating both Wildcats in the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8. Baylor and Auburn have stumbled down the stretch so I’ll go with Kansas as my other #1 seed and Kentucky as my #2 seed. I’ll have Tennessee beat Gonzaga, (sorry Zags – your third finals defeat in 6 years). That gets me another 18 games predicted, with 13 to go. One 10 seed should make it to the Sweet 16, per the historical numbers. That would have to be Miami beating Auburn. The other first round upseters should all go down. Bye Bye Colgate, But I’ve got Vermont and New Mexico State playing each other. I’ll go with Vermont based on that roll they are on. Then they lose to the Zags. The rest are just judgement calls. The historical record doesn’t help me here. I’ll take Texas Tech over Alabama, (why are people crazy from Nate Oats?), Duke over Michigan State, although I don’t like what I see of the Blue Devils lately, I’ll take Tech over them in the Sweet 16. Then they lose to the Zags. Baylor’s got enough left to beat the Tar Heels and to make it to the Elite 8, where Kentucky will beat them. I can’t see St. Mary’s beating UCLA but I can see Virginia Tech beating Purdue. I think Houston is better than Illinois, (I’m still mad that the Illni went down so early last year, when I had them winning it all). Iowa-Providence is interesting but the Hawkeyes are playing very well right now and I’ll go with them. The last one I have to pick is Miami over LSU. Done. [/QUOTE]

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