Updated RPI

[SUFan44]

202 overall as of 12/26 according to NCAA.

It is going to be tough to get an NIT bid, let alone an NCAA one.

Disgusting.

 

[bevosu]

When was the last time our RPI was this bad? Ever?

 

[STEVEHOLT]

yet somehow we are still only +2800 to win it all. Per Bovada, we have the same shot as Virginia, better shot than Michigan state, purdude, Arizona, Xavier, Creighton, WVU, amongst others. what are the "sharps" smoking?

 

[Trueblue25]

We have all of CBB nation right where we want them.

 

[Brooky03]

With how much the RPI moves throughout the season, it's still too early for the number to mean much (if it even means much to begin with). A few games could swing it pretty drastically still.

 

[pearl31]

45 in KenPom

 

[skurey]

yet somehow we are still only +2800 to win it all. Per Bovada, we have the same shot as Virginia, better shot than Michigan state, purdude, Arizona, Xavier, Creighton, WVU, amongst others. what are the "sharps" smoking?

We have a lot of crazy fans here.

 

[Eric15]

With how much the RPI moves throughout the season, it's still too early for the number to mean much (if it even means much to begin with). A few games could swing it pretty drastically still.

If we had an RPI in the 80s or 90s with a quality non-conference win or two under our belt, I would agree with your sentiment. But we are in an unprecedented hole right now from what we have grown accustomed to.

 

[HoustonCuse]

RPI will go up 75 spots just by losing ACC games to the top of the conference though.

 

[Briancuse]

Wow I never thought I would see the day when our rpi was in the 200's.

 

[Brooky03]

If we had an RPI in the 80s or 90s with a quality non-conference win or two under our belt, I would agree with your sentiment. But we are in an unprecedented hole right now from what we have grown accustomed to.

Agreed, it's certainly not good. What makes the predicament so weird, to me, is that a lot of us are still holding out hope that the team will flip a switch at some point and realize their potential. IF they do that in the next few games, then 11 or 12 conference wins isn't crazy, and 11 ACC wins probably gets us dancing regardless of nonconference play. That's a huge 'if', though. The more likely outcome is that we play how we've played so far this season and get 5 or 6 conference wins, if that. In that case, the RPI doesn't really matter because we should reject NIT bids at this point on principle, if we even get an NIT bid.

 

[jncuse]

The ACC Schedule will inherently pump it up, but we have put ourselves in quite a hole.

At 17-14 (9-9 in the ACC) our RPI is forecast at #96. Last year at 9-9 we were in the mid to late 60's entering the ACC tourney. That is the gap caused by our poor preseason performance.

At 10-8 our RPI is forecast at #77
At 11-7 our RPI is forecast at #64.

If we went 11-7 in the ACC we would almost certainly make the tourney... but, I have more than serious doubts about our ability to get to 11-7.

Even at 10-8, followed by one quality win in the ACC tourney we might have a shot if the field is weak and things break our way. But then again, 10-8 followed by at least one win against a tourney / fellow bubble team is hard to fathom right now.

 

[jncuse]

Agreed, it's certainly not good. What makes the predicament so weird, to me, is that a lot of us are still holding out hope that the team will flip a switch at some point and realize their potential. IF they do that in the next few games, then 11 or 12 conference wins isn't crazy, and 11 ACC wins probably gets us dancing regardless of nonconference play. That's a huge 'if', though. The more likely outcome is that we play how we've played so far this season and get 5 or 6 conference wins, if that. In that case, the RPI doesn't really matter because we should reject NIT bids at this point on principle, if we even get an NIT bid.

5 or 6 wins is not going to get an NIT bid. We would probably need 9 to get in the discussion as the field has less spots now for P5 schools. That being said I disagree with rejecting NIT bids. Something doesn't sit right with me when other schools do that in basketball or football.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

What does it even matter? We're all going to die someday anyway.

 

[tbonezone]

Rest Peace In.

 

[Alsacs]

Short of 12 ACC wins we aren't getting an at-large bid this year.
We were saved by the B4A and games against St. Bona and we played Wisconsin/and the BE road games.
We aren't getting any breaks.

 

[jncuse]

Short of 12 ACC wins we aren't getting an at-large bid this year.
We were saved by the B4A and games against St. Bona and we played Wisconsin/and the BE road games.
We aren't getting any breaks.

I to disagree on needing 12 wins. 11 wins in the top conference in America, will certainly net you top 50 wins.

While the big positive last year was the OOC, the big positive this year is that the ACC is in a much stronger position heading into conference play this year compared to last. 12 of 15 teams are projected to have RPI's in the top 70, 9 of 15 teams are projected to have top 50 RPI's. It will be easier to accumulate top 50 wins, and this easily confused the committee last year with the PAC-12.

For example, to get 11 wins, it's probably safe to assume we beat Wake, Pitt, Miami and Florida St at home. That could give us 4 or 5 top 50 wins in itself.

Of course we probably agree that the ability to get 11 or 12 wins is not that great.

 

[kirbivore]

yet somehow we are still only +2800 to win it all. Per Bovada, we have the same shot as Virginia, better shot than Michigan state, purdude, Arizona, Xavier, Creighton, WVU, amongst others. what are the "sharps" smoking?

The house knows only squares make championship prop bets

 

[SUFan44]

I to disagree on needing 12 wins. 11 wins in the top conference in America, will certainly net you top 50 wins.

While the big positive last year was the OOC, the big positive this year is that the ACC is in a much stronger position heading into conference play this year compared to last. 12 of 15 teams are projected to have RPI's in the top 70, 9 of 15 teams are projected to have top 50 RPI's. It will be easier to accumulate top 50 wins, and this easily confused the committee last year with the PAC-12.

For example, to get 11 wins, it's probably safe to assume we beat Wake, Pitt, Miami and Florida St at home. That could give us 4 or 5 top 50 wins in itself.

Of course we probably agree that the ability to get 11 or 12 wins is not that great.

We have zero quality wins right now. Zero.

12 wins would give us a shot but even then nothing is guaranteed.

 

[jncuse]

The house knows only squares make championship prop bets

There is some value in them if you bet on a site that has cash out options after the odds increase. Made some nice money on Oregon after buying in on them at 80-1 in mid January.

 

[jncuse]

We have zero quality wins right now. Zero.

12 wins would give us a shot but even then nothing is guaranteed.

So you based your assessment of 12 wins probably being good enough based on ..... no analysis. Apparently a half assed random assessment is good enough for you to make a projection, but my assessment of our resume at 11 wins (RPI of 64, at least 4 or 5 top wins due to the 2016 P-12 effect) is overlooking things.

My counter to your point -- we have zero quality wins right now. Zero. How can you say 12 or 13 wins is good enough, but then totally disregard 11 wins.

Should we not look at where we could be at with 11 wins before totally disregarding it?

Not that our OOC is any good, or even close to it, but we are projecting to have 1 top 50 OOC win in Monmouth.

 

[SUFan44]

So you based your assessment of 12 wins probably being good enough based on ... no analysis. Apparently a half assed random assessment is good enough for you to make a projection, but my assessment of our resume at 11 wins (RPI of 64, at least 4 or 5 top wins due to the 2016 P-12 effect) is overlooking things.

My counter to your point -- we have zero quality wins right now. Zero. How can you say 12 or 13 wins is good enough, but then totally disregard 11 wins.

Should we not look at where we could be at with 11 wins before totally disregarding it?

Not that our OOC is any good, or even close to it, but we are projecting to have 1 top 50 OOC win in Monmouth.

11 wins? We have 7 (now 8 with Cornell). That certainly isn't 11.

12 wins puts us at 20-11. We also play BC, Pitt and Georgia Tech six times. All 3 are projected to be bottom half in the league.

We have Duke and Louisville at home, and Louisville and UNC on the road. Realistically, we need to split those four games to remain in the conversation for an at-large, plus win the majority of the games against the middle of the league including at Va Tech, at Clemson, at ND, at NC State , vs FSU. Not very likely.

Monmouth will need to go 17-3 in its league to stay top 50. Not going to be easy.

Just because I don't post a lengthy reply doesn't mean I don't know what I'm talking about.

 

[pearl31]

Short of 12 ACC wins we aren't getting an at-large bid this year.
We were saved by the B4A and games against St. Bona and we played Wisconsin/and the BE road games.
We aren't getting any breaks.

I especially liked your litany of posts in the wake of the Pitt (acct) where you repeatedly told everyone to forget about us being in the tourney

 

[Alsacs]

I especially liked your litany of posts in the wake of the Pitt (acct) where you repeatedly told everyone to forget about us being in the tourney

I think you are wrong. I was telling everyone we were making the tournament based on non conference wins.
You sure you don't have me confused with someone else?

 

[pearl31]

I think you are wrong. I was telling everyone we were making the tournament based on non conference wins.
You sure you don't have me confused with someone else?

yeah I guess, there were plenty of such folks tho!