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Message: [QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 5293943, member: 405"] Really good article on ESPN.com, behind the paywall. It analyzes US MNT performance going back to 1994, using the ELO system, measuring against strength of opponent, importance of games, quality of squads, etc. I'll leave all that discussion for subscribers, and it is fascinating. But I'll summarize and then paste in the conclusion from the article: Our best teams of the modern era were from 2010 to 2014, despite the 2002 team going farther in the World Cup, or even the modern generation's general dominance over Mexico under the Pulisic Era. More of our guys are playing better competition in better leagues than ever before. Why isn't it translating into better results? Coaching? We're about to find out. Here are their thoughts: "Despite all of the new talent, the U.S. had already been well ahead of both of those peaks in the past. [HEADING=1]This U.S. generation isn't so Golden then, huh?[/HEADING] Perhaps the logical conclusion is that these current players aren't any better than the players from the past. You could even argue that the current players might be a little worse. Sure, only a couple of guys here and there would make it to Europe in previous cycles, but the international market may have just been inefficient. It's not like every player in the world who is good enough to be playing in the Champions League is already playing in the Champions League. Now, I do think that the talent level of the current generation of American players [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/insider/story/_/id/40479160/why-usmnt-not-good-copa-america-exit']is a bit overblown[/URL]. [URL='http://espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/225607/christian-pulisic']Christian Pulisic[/URL] looked like he could become a true superstar, as did [URL='http://espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/290230/giovanni-reyna']Giovanni Reyna[/URL]. The former is a borderline world-class player but not a superstar, and the latter has barely played any professional soccer over the past few years. [URL='http://espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/222776/tyler-adams']Tyler Adams[/URL] had the potential to become an elite holding midfielder, but he just can't stay healthy. [URL='http://espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/272585/chris-richards']Chris Richards[/URL] went from [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=132']Bayern Munich[/URL] to in-and-out of the [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=384']Crystal Palace[/URL] starting lineup. Weah left [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=160']Paris Saint-Germain[/URL] and has been in and out of the starting lineup with a reduced [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=111']Juventus[/URL] team. McKennie occupies the same spot at the same club as Weah. And [URL='http://espn.com/soccer/player/_/id/266291/sergino-dest']Sergiño Dest[/URL] went from [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=139']Ajax Amsterdam[/URL] to [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=83']Barcelona[/URL] and then back to the [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/league/_/name/NED.1']Eredivisie[/URL] with PSV. Outside of Reyna and maybe Adams, none of these are bad outcomes, but based on earlier expectations, none of them are really great outcomes, either. At the same time, you have to do a ton of mental and economic and political and sociological and tactical gymnastics to convince yourself that the current U.S. team, filled with contributors for good teams across Europe's biggest leagues, is worse than all of these other teams that were mostly made up of players from MLS, Scandinavia and low-level Big Five sides. Which still brings us back here: Why isn't the U.S. better? Perhaps some of it was coaching -- and we'll see how that plays out over the next two years [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/insider/story/_/id/40883662/why-pochettino-usmnt-best-possible-hire-head-coach']with Mauricio Pochettino on the sideline[/URL] instead of Gregg Berhalter -- but the simplest explanation is that everyone else is better, too. In North America, most of the teams in the tier below Mexico and the U.S. have way more players playing in MLS or other higher-level professional leagues than they've had in the past. [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=206']Canada[/URL] were an afterthought for every World Cup cycle since 1994 -- until 2022. Now they have a coach with Champions League and Premier League experience and a number of guys on top teams in Europe. Beyond North America, so many of the other teams in this same cluster as the U.S. -- countries that could conceivably be ranked anywhere between 12th and 35th -- are seeing the same trends with their own player pools. In mid-2002, [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=627']Japan[/URL] was ranked one spot ahead of the U.S. in the Elo ratings. Its roster for that World Cup included four guys who played in Europe; the other 19 played in Japan. Come 2022, with the rosters expanded to 26, 19 players were playing in Europe. Over 20 years, the share of players on its roster playing in Europe went from 17% to 73%. The same holds true for the team ranked one spot below the U.S. in 2002: [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=459']Belgium[/URL]. Its roster that year had six men playing in leagues in England, Spain, Germany, [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=478']France[/URL] or [URL='https://www.espn.com/soccer/team?id=162']Italy[/URL]. That's 26%. In 2022, 81% were playing in one of those five major countries. Champions League clubs are scouting and signing more Americans than ever before, but they're also signing more Japanese, Swiss, Ecuadorean, Norwegian, Moroccan, Austrian and Belgian players than ever before, too. If someone at U.S. Soccer figured out how to build a time machine and then used it to bring the current roster to any of the pre-2022 World Cups, the U.S.'s past results would've almost definitely improved. However, the unfortunate truth -- one that often goes unspoken in most of these "why isn't the U.S. better at soccer?" conversations -- is that in most of the sports that the U.S. dominates, there isn't the same level of global competition. But in soccer, the U.S. isn't the only national team trying to find ways to improve player development and coaching and see its players star for the biggest clubs in the world. So to improve your standing in the global pecking order, it's not just that you have to do all of those things. You have to do all of those things, and you have to do them better than everyone else." [/QUOTE]

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