Vegas, kenpom on tonight's game

[pearl31]

Vegas current line I'm seeing: SU -6.5
kenpom: SU by 5 with 68% prob of winning

thoughts?

 

[Eric15]

Vegas current line I'm seeing: SU -6.5
kenpom: SU by 5 with 68% prob of winning

thoughts?

Seems totally reasonable to me.

 

[CusefanATL]

if the line were -10, I would have bet against Syracuse for the 1st time in my life.

-5-7 is reasonable. But I would not be surprised at all if Bonnies beat us by double digits and control most of the game.

 

[pearl31]

I would not be surprised at all if Bonnies beat us by double digits and control most of the game.

just curious - where are you getting this from? gut?

 

[CusefanATL]

just curious - where are you getting this from? gut?

strictly gut. and Jaylen Adams

and Matt Mobley.

 

[CusefanATL]

just curious - where are you getting this from? gut?

I am occasionally good with gut feelings with mid majors. Cornell was a prime example. I put them in the sweet 16 regardless of opponent in 2010ish before the season even started. I can find people who can verify that prediction.

sure enough, on every bracket i did that year, i had them playing UK in the dome.

 

[General20]

Vegas current line I'm seeing: SU -6.5
kenpom: SU by 5 with 68% prob of winning

thoughts?

Feels about right to me. I wouldn't bet on Syracuse to beat anybody by double digits, but 6.5 seems like its right in the sweet spot.

SBU is a good team, probably the second best team we've played this year, and they are undefeated with Adams in the line up, but they don't match up great with Syracuse. They get a huge amount of their productivity from their two guards, Adams and Mobley, and SU's zone is starting to show signs of being able to take away a team's top option or two. I'm not sure if SBU will have enough firepower to beat Syracuse if even one of those two guys has a bad game.

Also they are small and don't rebound well. Brissett, Moyer, and even Chukwu will have a huge mismatch down low, especially once they grab an offensive rebound which they should do a lot of in this game.

Finally, SBU, just played on Wednesday, and Syracuse is notoriously hard to prepare for on one day's notice.

My only worry is Syracuse's health. They clearly got beat up against UB (unlike SBU who had an easy blow out) and only have two days to heal. If they come out with a bounce in their step I think they win, but probably not by double digits.

 

[Richie0115]

I am occasionally good with gut feelings with mid majors. Cornell was a prime example. I put them in the sweet 16 regardless of opponent in 2010ish before the season even started. I can find people who can verify that prediction.

sure enough, on every bracket i did that year, i had them playing UK in the dome.

I have watched these guys struggle with Yale and Vermont. SU should win this game.

 

[pearl31]

My only worry is Syracuse's health. They clearly got beat up against UB (unlike SBU who had an easy blow out) and only have two days to heal. If they come out with a bounce in their step I think they win, but probably not by double digits.

This is my one real concern as well - we were the walking wounded at the end of that game Tuesday

 

[jncuse]

I think we win but we do not cover.

 

[pearl31]

I think we win but we do not cover.

My feeling, too

 

[cuseattle]

I am occasionally good with gut feelings with mid majors. Cornell was a prime example. I put them in the sweet 16 regardless of opponent in 2010ish before the season even started. I can find people who can verify that prediction.

sure enough, on every bracket i did that year, i had them playing UK in the dome.

They were very tall that year and ranked early??

 

[CusefanATL]

They were very tall that year and ranked early??

they were not ranked until the final poll. They were also a 12 seed.

But they did have Ryan Wittman, Jeff Foote (the tall guy) and great 3 pt shooting.