SWC75
Bored Historian
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Again this year I’m going to keep track of how teams have done against ranked teams. And again I’ll remind the reader that this is not itself an attempt to rank teams, although I will have cumulative standings: it’s intended just as a stat to look at in determining where teams should rank. Also, as with all stats, the early results are hardly definitive but they will become more meaningful as the season progresses.
Another issue is that I’m using a team’s ranking at the time the game is played, not their final ranking. When we played Northwestern last year, they were ranked 19th in the writer’s poll, (the one I use for this). They wound up 5-7 and unranked. Auburn, coming off a 3-9 season, was unranked. They wound up playing for the national title. But I’d have to wait to the end of the season to compute this using the final rankings, by which time no one would care about a breakdown of some of a team’s games. I’m trying to maintain a running tally of how teams are doing in their biggest games. Besides, a teams ranking at the time you played them may truly reflect how good the team was at that time. Northwestern played like a top ten team against us and went on to a 4-0 start before losing a series of close games. Auburn was not as great early in the season as they later became.
Also I’m not making any allowances for home vs. road, (which I think affects the top teams less than the mediocre teams), or injured players, the impact of which is impossible to compute, (and top teams can usually replace guys).
So here we go. I’ll stick to the writer’s poll for the rankings for consistency, (I need one #1 team, one #2 team, etc.) and because they have a poll each week from preseason to post season. The formula is pretty simple, although there are two parts to it. First you compute the “schedule points”. A team gets 25 points for playing the #1 ranked team, 24 points for playing the #2 ranked team, 23 points for playing the #3 ranked team, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 ranked team. Then you add or subtract to/from that the margin of victory or defeat. If they have any positive points left, I’ll record it here and add them up as the season goes along. I’m not going to record any net negatives or I would be documenting the season of Louisiana-Lafayette or somebody like that. That’s not what we are interested in here. We want to know about teams likely to wind up ranked and in consideration for the playoffs or the bowls.
WEEK ELEVEN
(ESPN is now using the committee’s rankings for their Top 25 scores so I will, too.)
BAYLOR beat #15 Oklahoma by 34 = 45 points
ARIZONA STATE beat #10 Notre Dame by 24 = 40 points
TEXAS CHRISTIAN beat #7 Kansas State by 21 = 40 points
OREGON beat #17 Utah by 24 = 33 points
OHIO STATE beat #8 Michigan State by 12 = 30 points
TEXAS A&M beat #3 Auburn by 3 = 26 points
TEXAS beat #23 West Virginia by 17 = 20 points
ALABAMA beat #16 Louisiana State by 7 = 17 points
LOUISIANA STATE lost to #5 Alabama by 7 = 14 points
VIRGINIA lost to Florida State by 14 = +10
That’s not a lot of games that produced points but they all produced at least 10 points so they will move the standings. And the top eight point totals were in wins, instead of the losses that have produced much of the points in recent weeks. Ohio State finally earned some points in week 11, beating my semi-beloved Spartans. TCU has now passed Mississippi State for having the best resume vs. ranked teams and they passed them like they were standing still. But they don’t play a ranked team the rest of the way and will likely remain at 135. Can anyone catch them?
CUMULATIVE POINTS
135 Texas Christian
99 Mississippi St.
91 Georgia and Oregon
90 Alabama and Auburn
85 Arizona State
81 Oregon
78 West Virginia
75 Mississippi and Texas A& M
72 UCLA
65 Baylor
56 Louisiana St.
53 Arkansas
47 Florida State
41 Texas
40 So. California
38 Utah
37 South Carolina
35 Notre Dame
34 Florida
32 Virginia Tech
31 Arizona and Kansas St.
30 Ohio State
28 Virginia
23 Boston College, Stanford and Utah State
19 Clemson, Oklahoma St. and Tennessee
17 Washington St.
16 East Carolina and Michigan St.
15 Northwestern and Temple
14 Missouri
13 Louisville and North Carolina
12 Indiana
11 Kentucky, Nebraska and Oklahoma
10 Duke, Navy and NC State
9 Syracuse and Wisconsin
8 Memphis
6 Penn State
4 Navy and Purdue
3 Kansas and Washington
2 California and Iowa St.
1 San Diego St.
Another issue is that I’m using a team’s ranking at the time the game is played, not their final ranking. When we played Northwestern last year, they were ranked 19th in the writer’s poll, (the one I use for this). They wound up 5-7 and unranked. Auburn, coming off a 3-9 season, was unranked. They wound up playing for the national title. But I’d have to wait to the end of the season to compute this using the final rankings, by which time no one would care about a breakdown of some of a team’s games. I’m trying to maintain a running tally of how teams are doing in their biggest games. Besides, a teams ranking at the time you played them may truly reflect how good the team was at that time. Northwestern played like a top ten team against us and went on to a 4-0 start before losing a series of close games. Auburn was not as great early in the season as they later became.
Also I’m not making any allowances for home vs. road, (which I think affects the top teams less than the mediocre teams), or injured players, the impact of which is impossible to compute, (and top teams can usually replace guys).
So here we go. I’ll stick to the writer’s poll for the rankings for consistency, (I need one #1 team, one #2 team, etc.) and because they have a poll each week from preseason to post season. The formula is pretty simple, although there are two parts to it. First you compute the “schedule points”. A team gets 25 points for playing the #1 ranked team, 24 points for playing the #2 ranked team, 23 points for playing the #3 ranked team, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 ranked team. Then you add or subtract to/from that the margin of victory or defeat. If they have any positive points left, I’ll record it here and add them up as the season goes along. I’m not going to record any net negatives or I would be documenting the season of Louisiana-Lafayette or somebody like that. That’s not what we are interested in here. We want to know about teams likely to wind up ranked and in consideration for the playoffs or the bowls.
WEEK ELEVEN
(ESPN is now using the committee’s rankings for their Top 25 scores so I will, too.)
BAYLOR beat #15 Oklahoma by 34 = 45 points
ARIZONA STATE beat #10 Notre Dame by 24 = 40 points
TEXAS CHRISTIAN beat #7 Kansas State by 21 = 40 points
OREGON beat #17 Utah by 24 = 33 points
OHIO STATE beat #8 Michigan State by 12 = 30 points
TEXAS A&M beat #3 Auburn by 3 = 26 points
TEXAS beat #23 West Virginia by 17 = 20 points
ALABAMA beat #16 Louisiana State by 7 = 17 points
LOUISIANA STATE lost to #5 Alabama by 7 = 14 points
VIRGINIA lost to Florida State by 14 = +10
That’s not a lot of games that produced points but they all produced at least 10 points so they will move the standings. And the top eight point totals were in wins, instead of the losses that have produced much of the points in recent weeks. Ohio State finally earned some points in week 11, beating my semi-beloved Spartans. TCU has now passed Mississippi State for having the best resume vs. ranked teams and they passed them like they were standing still. But they don’t play a ranked team the rest of the way and will likely remain at 135. Can anyone catch them?
CUMULATIVE POINTS
135 Texas Christian
99 Mississippi St.
91 Georgia and Oregon
90 Alabama and Auburn
85 Arizona State
81 Oregon
78 West Virginia
75 Mississippi and Texas A& M
72 UCLA
65 Baylor
56 Louisiana St.
53 Arkansas
47 Florida State
41 Texas
40 So. California
38 Utah
37 South Carolina
35 Notre Dame
34 Florida
32 Virginia Tech
31 Arizona and Kansas St.
30 Ohio State
28 Virginia
23 Boston College, Stanford and Utah State
19 Clemson, Oklahoma St. and Tennessee
17 Washington St.
16 East Carolina and Michigan St.
15 Northwestern and Temple
14 Missouri
13 Louisville and North Carolina
12 Indiana
11 Kentucky, Nebraska and Oklahoma
10 Duke, Navy and NC State
9 Syracuse and Wisconsin
8 Memphis
6 Penn State
4 Navy and Purdue
3 Kansas and Washington
2 California and Iowa St.
1 San Diego St.
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