SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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Again this year I’m going to keep track of how teams have done against ranked teams. And again I’ll remind the reader that this is not itself an attempt to rank teams, although I will have cumulative standings: it’s intended just as a stat to look at in determining where teams should rank. Also, as with all stats, the early results are hardly definitive but they will become more meaningful as the season progresses.
Another issue is that I’m using a team’s ranking at the time the game is played, not their final ranking. When we played Northwestern last year, they were ranked 19th in the writer’s poll, (the one I use for this). They wound up 5-7 and unranked. Auburn, coming off a 3-9 season, was unranked. They wound up playing for the national title. But I’d have to wait to the end of the season to compute this using the final rankings, by which time no one would care about a breakdown of some of a team’s games. I’m trying to maintain a running tally of how teams are doing in their biggest games. Besides, a team's ranking at the time you played them may truly reflect how good the team was at that time. Northwestern played like a top ten team against us and went on to a 4-0 start before losing a series of close games. Auburn was not as great early in the season as they later became.
Also I’m not making any allowances for home vs. road, (which I think affects the top teams less than the mediocre teams), or injured players, the impact of which is impossible to compute, (and top teams can usually replace guys).
So here we go. I’ll stick to the writer’s poll for the rankings for consistency, (I need one #1 team, one #2 team, etc.) and because they have a poll each week from preseason to post season. The formula is pretty simple, although there are two parts to it. First you compute the “schedule points”. A team gets 25 points for playing the #1 ranked team, 24 points for playing the #2 ranked team, 23 points for playing the #3 ranked team, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 ranked team. Then you add or subtract to/from that the margin of victory or defeat. If they have any positive points left, I’ll record it here and add them up as the season goes along. I’m not going to record any net negatives or I would be documenting the season of Louisiana-Lafayette or somebody like that. That’s not what we are interested in here. We want to know about teams likely to wind up ranked and in consideration for the playoffs or the bowls.
WEEK SIX
Whew! 24 ranked teams played. 11 were upset and 14 teams gained points. Here goes!
AUBURN +34 over #7 Louisiana State = 45 points
MISSISSIPPI STATE +17 over #6 Texas A&M = 37 points
ARIZONA +7 over #2 Oregon = 31 points
MISSISSIPPI +6 over #3 Alabama = 29 points
TEXAS CHRISTIAN +4 over #4 Oklahoma = 26 points
UTAH STATE +15 over #18 Brigham Young = 23 points
UTAH +2 over #8 UCLA = 20 points
NORTHWESTERN +6 over #17 Wisconsin = 15 points
NOTRE DAME +3 over #12 Stanford = 15 points
ARIZONA STATE +4 over #16 Southern California = 14 points
STANFORD -3 to #9 Notre Dame = 14 points
MICHIGAN STATE +5 over #19 Nebraska = 12 points
NEBRASKA -5 to #10 Michigan State = 11 points
ALABAMA -6 to #11 Mississippi = 9 points
I’m not going to look through a century and a half of scores to find out but I wonder how many times Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana State, Southern California and Nebraska have all lost on the same day? If Mississippi State had held onto their 48-17 lead they’d have had 54 points, the highest total of the year. But it was still enough, with the earlier win at LSU to put them at the top of the list below. But I don’t think anybody’s going to get a lot of points for beating LSU the rest of the year. And that score would have better represented how one-sided that game was. Similarly if Michigan State had held onto their 27-3 point lead over Nebraska, they could have had 31 points, 9AND THE Huskers would have gotten none).
CUMULATIVE POINTS
Mississippi St. 60
Auburn 56
UCLA 46
Texas A& M 41
Oregon 38
Georgia 34
Virginia Tech 32
Arizona 31
Mississippi 29
Texas Christian 26
West Virginia 24
Boston College 23
South Carolina 23
Stanford 23
Utah State 23
Utah 20
Clemson 19
Oklahoma St. 19
Virginia 18
Washington St. 17
East Carolina 16
Louisiana St. 16
Michigan St. 16
So. California 16
Kansas St. 15
Northwestern 15
Notre Dame 15
Arizona State 14
Arkansas 14
Missouri 14
Indiana 12
Nebraska 11
Tennessee 11
Texas 11
Florida St. 10
NC State 10
Alabama 9
Wisconsin 9
Memphis 8
Navy 4
Washington 3
Florida 2
Iowa St. 2
Syracuse 2
San Diego St. 1
Another issue is that I’m using a team’s ranking at the time the game is played, not their final ranking. When we played Northwestern last year, they were ranked 19th in the writer’s poll, (the one I use for this). They wound up 5-7 and unranked. Auburn, coming off a 3-9 season, was unranked. They wound up playing for the national title. But I’d have to wait to the end of the season to compute this using the final rankings, by which time no one would care about a breakdown of some of a team’s games. I’m trying to maintain a running tally of how teams are doing in their biggest games. Besides, a team's ranking at the time you played them may truly reflect how good the team was at that time. Northwestern played like a top ten team against us and went on to a 4-0 start before losing a series of close games. Auburn was not as great early in the season as they later became.
Also I’m not making any allowances for home vs. road, (which I think affects the top teams less than the mediocre teams), or injured players, the impact of which is impossible to compute, (and top teams can usually replace guys).
So here we go. I’ll stick to the writer’s poll for the rankings for consistency, (I need one #1 team, one #2 team, etc.) and because they have a poll each week from preseason to post season. The formula is pretty simple, although there are two parts to it. First you compute the “schedule points”. A team gets 25 points for playing the #1 ranked team, 24 points for playing the #2 ranked team, 23 points for playing the #3 ranked team, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 ranked team. Then you add or subtract to/from that the margin of victory or defeat. If they have any positive points left, I’ll record it here and add them up as the season goes along. I’m not going to record any net negatives or I would be documenting the season of Louisiana-Lafayette or somebody like that. That’s not what we are interested in here. We want to know about teams likely to wind up ranked and in consideration for the playoffs or the bowls.
WEEK SIX
Whew! 24 ranked teams played. 11 were upset and 14 teams gained points. Here goes!
AUBURN +34 over #7 Louisiana State = 45 points
MISSISSIPPI STATE +17 over #6 Texas A&M = 37 points
ARIZONA +7 over #2 Oregon = 31 points
MISSISSIPPI +6 over #3 Alabama = 29 points
TEXAS CHRISTIAN +4 over #4 Oklahoma = 26 points
UTAH STATE +15 over #18 Brigham Young = 23 points
UTAH +2 over #8 UCLA = 20 points
NORTHWESTERN +6 over #17 Wisconsin = 15 points
NOTRE DAME +3 over #12 Stanford = 15 points
ARIZONA STATE +4 over #16 Southern California = 14 points
STANFORD -3 to #9 Notre Dame = 14 points
MICHIGAN STATE +5 over #19 Nebraska = 12 points
NEBRASKA -5 to #10 Michigan State = 11 points
ALABAMA -6 to #11 Mississippi = 9 points
I’m not going to look through a century and a half of scores to find out but I wonder how many times Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana State, Southern California and Nebraska have all lost on the same day? If Mississippi State had held onto their 48-17 lead they’d have had 54 points, the highest total of the year. But it was still enough, with the earlier win at LSU to put them at the top of the list below. But I don’t think anybody’s going to get a lot of points for beating LSU the rest of the year. And that score would have better represented how one-sided that game was. Similarly if Michigan State had held onto their 27-3 point lead over Nebraska, they could have had 31 points, 9AND THE Huskers would have gotten none).
CUMULATIVE POINTS
Mississippi St. 60
Auburn 56
UCLA 46
Texas A& M 41
Oregon 38
Georgia 34
Virginia Tech 32
Arizona 31
Mississippi 29
Texas Christian 26
West Virginia 24
Boston College 23
South Carolina 23
Stanford 23
Utah State 23
Utah 20
Clemson 19
Oklahoma St. 19
Virginia 18
Washington St. 17
East Carolina 16
Louisiana St. 16
Michigan St. 16
So. California 16
Kansas St. 15
Northwestern 15
Notre Dame 15
Arizona State 14
Arkansas 14
Missouri 14
Indiana 12
Nebraska 11
Tennessee 11
Texas 11
Florida St. 10
NC State 10
Alabama 9
Wisconsin 9
Memphis 8
Navy 4
Washington 3
Florida 2
Iowa St. 2
Syracuse 2
San Diego St. 1
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