Virginia opens -9 over SU... | Syracusefan.com

Virginia opens -9 over SU...

690West said:
Man alive, that seems high. But I always think that!!
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That does seem very high. Not only because we have been playing good basketball of late, but also because UVA isn't great offensively. I don't see it.
 
They one of the best defensive rebounding teams and we need offensive rebounds to help with our low scoring.
 
I apologize for saying the same thing every time there is shock at an opening line. The line is not unexpected.

Virginia is an adjusted 5.6 net points better per 63 possessions (average tempo of teams) per KP. Add 3.5 Home Court, and you get 9. Vegas has to be using a model that is pretty close to the team efficiency data that KP comes up with.

And they seem committed to team rankings more than trying to get 50/50 when they set lines. I remember reading some article a year or so that it is better for Vegas to place faith in a ranking model then try to get 50/50 which is simply impossible in college basketball. They will let line move a bit though post open.

That being said our net efficiency is impacted by our stretch of poor play pre JB -- the team ranking places more importance on recent games, but does not ignore older games.

For that reason Syracuse +9 is my play. We are on an upward trend -- over the season sure #40 makes sense, but I think we are better than #40 as of right now..
 
jncuse said:
I apologize for saying the same thing every time there is shock at an opening line. The line is not unexpected.

Virginia is an adjusted 5.6 net points better per 63 possessions (average tempo of teams) per KP. Add 3.5 Home Court, and you get 9. Vegas has to be using a model that is pretty close to the team efficiency data that KP comes up with.

And they seem committed to team rankings more than trying to get 50/50 when they set lines. I remember reading some article a year or so that it is better for Vegas to place faith in a ranking model then try to get 50/50 which is simply impossible in college basketball. They will let line move a bit though post open.

That being said our net efficiency is impacted by our stretch of poor play pre JB -- the team ranking places more importance on recent games, but does not ignore older games.

For that reason Syracuse +9 is my play. We are on an upward trend -- over the season sure #40 makes sense, but I think we are better than #40 as of right now..
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For the record, my "shock" is faux shock. I'm an actual handicapper that has fun with the board since I love Syracuse football and basketball. I run a book called the Wynn. Take what I say with a gargantuan grain of salt. Salt city salt.
 
690, why is vegas so reluctant to move the pats / broncos like despite over 70 percent of money on pats?
 
UVa is 6-4 against the spread at home, Syracuse is 3-4 on the road. This one seems like a tossup with a slight edge to UVa. With the Boeheim factor, I'll take 68-61 Hoos.
 
690West said:
Man alive, that seems high. But I always think that!!
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Virginia is not the same team as the last two years. I'm not saying they are not good, but they had this thing going where they would get 3 stops in a row multiple times a game and go on runs. They covered against the spread constantly. This year, they are not getting those defensive runs.
Two other factors, the other night UVa (also favored by 10) was up 13 on Clemson with 9 minutes to go. Last year , they win that game by 20+. This year, a couple of bad possessions and deep threes by Clemson and it was a three point game with 3 to play, Uva ultimately prevailed by 7 and didn't cover... one other factor, unlike Koach Kourageous and Roy, if Bennett is up comfortably with a few minutes to play, he gives the walk-ons some run. They usually give back about 6 points, Believe me, I have been burned by that and won't bet on them in my parlay this year.
Bottom line, Orange cover, possibly pull an upset if Cooney is on
 
I'm sure it's not lost on our kids that a win today against UVA would essentially change the entire trajectory of the season for them. For myself, as I watched the Duke game I saw a team that was regaining the confidence which they showed at Atlantis and who had emerged from a difficult stretch without their coach. As the game wore on...instead of looking gassed and frustrated they ALL seemed to contribute to a coordinated effort unlike what we had seen during JB's absence.

Let there be no mistake, UVA is a good team and on paper the 9 point spread is no doubt warranted, but I saw something during that Duke game that tells me they can, on any given day, punch any team in America in the mouth and emerge with the win.

Me thinks today is one of those days!
 
Flacusian said:
I'm sure it's not lost on our kids that a win today against UVA would essentially change the entire trajectory of the season for them. For myself, as I watched the Duke game I saw a team that was regaining the confidence which they showed at Atlantis and who had emerged from a difficult stretch without their coach. As the game wore on...instead of looking gassed and frustrated they ALL seemed to contribute to a coordinated effort unlike what we had seen during JB's absence.

Let there be no mistake, UVA is a good team and on paper the 9 point spread is no doubt warranted, but I saw something during that Duke game that tells me they can, on any given day, punch any team in America in the mouth and emerge with the win.

Me thinks today is one of those days!
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Hell to the yeah!
 
690West said:
For the record, my "shock" is faux shock. I'm an actual handicapper that has fun with the board since I love Syracuse football and basketball. I run a book called the Wynn. Take what I say with a gargantuan grain of salt. Salt city salt.
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Somehow I missed that you posted the OP - hard to do with your signature avatar but I did.
 
jncuse said:
I apologize for saying the same thing every time there is shock at an opening line. The line is not unexpected.

Virginia is an adjusted 5.6 net points better per 63 possessions (average tempo of teams) per KP. Add 3.5 Home Court, and you get 9. Vegas has to be using a model that is pretty close to the team efficiency data that KP comes up with.

And they seem committed to team rankings more than trying to get 50/50 when they set lines. I remember reading some article a year or so that it is better for Vegas to place faith in a ranking model then try to get 50/50 which is simply impossible in college basketball. They will let line move a bit though post open.

That being said our net efficiency is impacted by our stretch of poor play pre JB -- the team ranking places more importance on recent games, but does not ignore older games.

For that reason Syracuse +9 is my play. We are on an upward trend -- over the season sure #40 makes sense, but I think we are better than #40 as of right now..
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Vegas. We just beat Duke and Roberson the rebounding monster had an extra day of rest. Look out!
 
Cusefannotindc said:
Don't pay attention to ATS numbers.
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To put it another way, ATS results are more a reflection of the quality of a handicappers model than they are of how two team's will actually perform in a competitive game situation?
 
I'm watching the last game with Duke right now as a warm up to tonight's game.
 
UnderHisOwnPower said:
To put it another way, ATS results are more a reflection of the quality of a handicappers model than they are of how two team's will actually perform in a competitive game situation?
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Well in the long run, Vegas's handicapping has shown that their spreads are roughly 50-50. The rather small sample we get of games, is not enough to update our belief about a team's odds of beating the spread (or failing to).

Say 200 teams regularly get spreads published for their games and they have for 20 games, and we wanted to break out it by home and away. We would have 8000 observations with a 10 game sample size. Just due to that large number of observations we are going to get results that look meaningful but are just random. If we had 8000 people flip a coin 10 times, about 8 of them would flip heads 10 times in row (another 8 flipping tails 10 times). They wouldn't be better at flipping coins, it would just be chance.

If UVA were accurately assessed in the handicapping model (50-50 to cover), random chance would still have them at 38% to be 6-4 or greater. Similarly SU at accurately assessed would be 50% to be 3-4 or worse and 50% to be 4-3 or better.
 
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