SWC75
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One thing I always wonder about is: Who won the weekend? Which college football team gave the best performance? I decided to look at the question with this system: (1) List the AP top 25 teams going into the weekend; (2) Give each of them points in reverse order of their ranking: 25 for #1, 24 for #2, etc.; (3) Give their opponent that number of points; (4) add the number of points the opponent beat them by or (5) subtract the number of points the opponent lost by. The net result is the number of points the opponents gets for their performance that week. I will keep track only of positive points as I’m trying to measure positive accomplishments, not discredit teams for negative ones.
In the first week, Clemson played the #5 team , Georgia. They get 21 points for that. The beat them by 3 to push it to 24 points. Georgia played Clemson, the #8 team. They got 18 points for that. They lost by 3 and wound up with 15 points. A good performance doesn’t necessarily mean you won. Washington took on #19 Boise State, which gives then 7 points to start with. They won by the shocking score of 38-6 and wound up with 39 points, giving them the most impressive performance of the weekend. Lowly Buffalo came back from a 0-23 first quarter deficit against #2 Ohio State to get within 20-30 and then had a fumble recovery in front of the Ohio State goal line negated by a dubious penalty. They wound up losing by 20 but got 4 points out of it.
There are two obvious problems here: you only get points if you played a ranked opponent: Buffalo could get points this weekend for playing Ohio State but Alabama could get none for playing an unranked Virginia Tech team. But I’m trying to measure exactly that: how did teams do against ranked opponents? Alabama will play more ranked opponents than Buffalo this year and they will wind up with a lot more points. The other problem is that the ranking of a team will change over the course of a season. Southern California started out ranked #1 last year and were still #2 when we played them fairly close. They tumbled to 7-6 and were unranked by the end of the season. But teams can change through injuries, poor response to frustrating losses, chemistry problems, they don’t like the coach, etc. They may have been a more formidable team when they were ranked.
But I’m not going to offer this as an alternative ranking of teams, just as a statistic to look at when deciding where to rank teams. Here are the teams that earned positive points this week for their performance under this system:
WEEK FIFTEEN
Florida State beat #20 Duke by 38 = 44 points
Stanford beat #11 Arizona State by 24 = 39 points
Auburn beat #5 Missouri by 17 = 38 points
Michigan State beat #2 Ohio State by 10 = 34 points
Bowling Green beat #14 Northern Illinois by 20 = 32 points
Oklahoma beat #6 Oklahoma State by 9 = 26 points
Baylor beat #25 Texas by 20 = 21 points
Ohio State lost to #10 Michigan State by 10 = 6 points
Southern Methodist lost to #16 Central Florida by 4 = 6 points
Missouri lost to #3 Auburn by 17 = 4 points
CUMULATIVE TOTAL FOR SEASON
Florida State 214 points
Stanford 147 points
Oklahoma State 110 points
Auburn 108 points
Alabama 107 points
Louisiana State 92 points
Missouri 90 points
Georgia 83 points
Oklahoma 68 points
Arizona State 67 points
Baylor 66 points
Wisconsin 65 points
Washington 63 points
South Carolina 62 points
Michigan State 62 points
Mississippi 52 points
UCLA 51 points
Arizona 49 points
Oregon 46 points
Michigan 45 points
Utah 37 points
Duke 36 points
Ohio State 36 points
Virginia Tech 33 points
Bowling Green 32 points
Central Florida 32 points
Tennessee 32 points
Texas A&M 32 points
Brigham Young 30 points
Texas 30 points
Texas Christian 30 points
Penn State 29 points
Clemson 26 points
Kansas State 26 points
Southern California 25 points
West Virginia 25 points
Oregon State 24 points
Miami 21 points
San Jose State 20 points
Notre Dame 18 points
Vanderbilt 18 points
Boston College 17 points
Minnesota 17 points
Florida 16 points
Wake Forest 16 points
North Carolina 15 points
Texas Tech 15 points
Wisconsin 15 points
Iowa 12 points
Northwestern 12 points
Akron 11 points
Kentucky 11 points
North Carolina State 11 points
Pittsburgh 10 points
Arkansas 9 points
Connecticut 8 points
Army 7 points
Southern Methodist 6 points
Wyoming 5 points
Buffalo 4 points
California 4 points
Eastern Washington 4 points
Maryland 4 points
Rutgers 4 points
Washington State 4 points
South Florida 3 points
Temple 3 points
Mississippi State 1 point
Comment: The test of a system of analysis is whether the right teams or players wind up at the top of the list. I once saw a list of the top baseball players of all time that listed Joe DiMaggio as #36 and Bobby Grich as #28. That didn’t make me question the value of Joe DiMaggio. It made me question the value of the system. At that I didn‘t offer this as a ranking system but rather as a statistic to be considered in ranking teams. The list suggests that Florida State is easily the best team in the country and I think they are. Stanford and Oklahoma State are very good teams that have done well against ranked teams but they both have a couple of losses so they won’t be playing for a title this year. Then comes Auburn and Alabama, clearly the next best teams. Auburn beat ‘Bama so they will be in the title game but I’m not sure they are better. An awful lot went their way to get them where they are. But that rushing attack is sure impressive. And it’s unconventional, which gives them an advantage. People complain about Florida State being in the weak ACC but Ohio State was in the weak Big Ten but look where they are on the list. I think we can be glad they didn’t make the big game.
In the first week, Clemson played the #5 team , Georgia. They get 21 points for that. The beat them by 3 to push it to 24 points. Georgia played Clemson, the #8 team. They got 18 points for that. They lost by 3 and wound up with 15 points. A good performance doesn’t necessarily mean you won. Washington took on #19 Boise State, which gives then 7 points to start with. They won by the shocking score of 38-6 and wound up with 39 points, giving them the most impressive performance of the weekend. Lowly Buffalo came back from a 0-23 first quarter deficit against #2 Ohio State to get within 20-30 and then had a fumble recovery in front of the Ohio State goal line negated by a dubious penalty. They wound up losing by 20 but got 4 points out of it.
There are two obvious problems here: you only get points if you played a ranked opponent: Buffalo could get points this weekend for playing Ohio State but Alabama could get none for playing an unranked Virginia Tech team. But I’m trying to measure exactly that: how did teams do against ranked opponents? Alabama will play more ranked opponents than Buffalo this year and they will wind up with a lot more points. The other problem is that the ranking of a team will change over the course of a season. Southern California started out ranked #1 last year and were still #2 when we played them fairly close. They tumbled to 7-6 and were unranked by the end of the season. But teams can change through injuries, poor response to frustrating losses, chemistry problems, they don’t like the coach, etc. They may have been a more formidable team when they were ranked.
But I’m not going to offer this as an alternative ranking of teams, just as a statistic to look at when deciding where to rank teams. Here are the teams that earned positive points this week for their performance under this system:
WEEK FIFTEEN
Florida State beat #20 Duke by 38 = 44 points
Stanford beat #11 Arizona State by 24 = 39 points
Auburn beat #5 Missouri by 17 = 38 points
Michigan State beat #2 Ohio State by 10 = 34 points
Bowling Green beat #14 Northern Illinois by 20 = 32 points
Oklahoma beat #6 Oklahoma State by 9 = 26 points
Baylor beat #25 Texas by 20 = 21 points
Ohio State lost to #10 Michigan State by 10 = 6 points
Southern Methodist lost to #16 Central Florida by 4 = 6 points
Missouri lost to #3 Auburn by 17 = 4 points
CUMULATIVE TOTAL FOR SEASON
Florida State 214 points
Stanford 147 points
Oklahoma State 110 points
Auburn 108 points
Alabama 107 points
Louisiana State 92 points
Missouri 90 points
Georgia 83 points
Oklahoma 68 points
Arizona State 67 points
Baylor 66 points
Wisconsin 65 points
Washington 63 points
South Carolina 62 points
Michigan State 62 points
Mississippi 52 points
UCLA 51 points
Arizona 49 points
Oregon 46 points
Michigan 45 points
Utah 37 points
Duke 36 points
Ohio State 36 points
Virginia Tech 33 points
Bowling Green 32 points
Central Florida 32 points
Tennessee 32 points
Texas A&M 32 points
Brigham Young 30 points
Texas 30 points
Texas Christian 30 points
Penn State 29 points
Clemson 26 points
Kansas State 26 points
Southern California 25 points
West Virginia 25 points
Oregon State 24 points
Miami 21 points
San Jose State 20 points
Notre Dame 18 points
Vanderbilt 18 points
Boston College 17 points
Minnesota 17 points
Florida 16 points
Wake Forest 16 points
North Carolina 15 points
Texas Tech 15 points
Wisconsin 15 points
Iowa 12 points
Northwestern 12 points
Akron 11 points
Kentucky 11 points
North Carolina State 11 points
Pittsburgh 10 points
Arkansas 9 points
Connecticut 8 points
Army 7 points
Southern Methodist 6 points
Wyoming 5 points
Buffalo 4 points
California 4 points
Eastern Washington 4 points
Maryland 4 points
Rutgers 4 points
Washington State 4 points
South Florida 3 points
Temple 3 points
Mississippi State 1 point
Comment: The test of a system of analysis is whether the right teams or players wind up at the top of the list. I once saw a list of the top baseball players of all time that listed Joe DiMaggio as #36 and Bobby Grich as #28. That didn’t make me question the value of Joe DiMaggio. It made me question the value of the system. At that I didn‘t offer this as a ranking system but rather as a statistic to be considered in ranking teams. The list suggests that Florida State is easily the best team in the country and I think they are. Stanford and Oklahoma State are very good teams that have done well against ranked teams but they both have a couple of losses so they won’t be playing for a title this year. Then comes Auburn and Alabama, clearly the next best teams. Auburn beat ‘Bama so they will be in the title game but I’m not sure they are better. An awful lot went their way to get them where they are. But that rushing attack is sure impressive. And it’s unconventional, which gives them an advantage. People complain about Florida State being in the weak ACC but Ohio State was in the weak Big Ten but look where they are on the list. I think we can be glad they didn’t make the big game.
