Week 1: SP+ Where do we stand?

[TheCusian]

I’ve decided to make my hobby of keeping track of this stuff on the side public again this year. Last year I had more data to work from as Bill Connelly was putting it all into one big google spreadsheet. He’s been hired over at the mothership and is being a little more coy with his numbers (thanks, ESPN).

Here’s what he has to say about his rankings and why I like them, even though some here pooh-pooh them:

“What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

The SP+ rankings generally perform well against the spread -- 52 to 54 percent success over a full season, which is excellent for a system projecting every game and not specifically adjusting for injury.”

Until he adds special teams info back in, I’m leaving it off. We know ours is the best anyways. Info in parenthesis is the week before. (I used to include last years final numbers too, but it’s baked into Bill’s rankings.)

Last note - since there has only been one game, the data on CFB this season is so small, it’s highly dependent on last years results and recruiting rankings. As the season goes on it gets closer to a a true representation.


#40 Syracuse Orange 1-0 (#53, +13)
Offense: #108
Defense: #12

@ #120 Liberty Flames 0-1 (#110, -10)
Offense: #130
Defense: #25

@ #41 Maryland Terps 1-0 (#68, +27)
Offense: #55
Defense: #45

#2 Clemson Tigers 1-0 (#2)
Offense: #10
Defense: #15

#63 Western Michigan Broncos (#88, +25)
Offense: #41
Defense: #86

Holy Cross is FCS, so no ranking.

@ #32 NC State Wolfpack 1-0 (#47, +15)
Offense: #52
Defense: #37

#87 Pitt Panthers 0-1 (#60, -27)
Offense: #103
Defense: #46

@ #42 FSU Seminoles 0-1 (#35, -7)
Offense: #25
Defense: #84

#52 BC Eagles 1-0 (#65, +13)
Offense: #39
Defense: #79

@ #86 Duke Blue Devils 0-1 (#59, -27)
Offense: #92
Defense: #57

@ #82 Louisville Cardinals 0-1 (#82)
Offense: #69
Defense: #77

#46 Wake Forest Deacs 1-0 (#58, +12)
Offense: #17
Defense: #96