What does your top 16 S Curve look like? | Syracusefan.com

What does your top 16 S Curve look like?

Alsacs

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Since I am a wannabe Bracketlogist here is how mine looks.
1. Indiana- (This looks like the most talented team in the country, and they have to be the no.1 overall seed for now)
2. Michigan ( Solid team, and their resume is good enough for a 1 seed)
3. Duke (Overrated without Kelly, but Duke always get the benefit of the doubt from the committee)
4. Michigan State (this team is on fire and the 2013 B1G is getting the respect of the 2009 Big East when the conference got 3 number 1 seeds, and I think the B1G may get 3 1 seeds.)
5. Arizona (most overrated team in the country by far and away. Are they a good team, but no way do I see them as a top 5 when I watch them, but they are here for now.)
6. Miami ( they are 9-0 in the ACC and they have earned their spot for now.)
7. Syracuse (if Southerland comes back I honestly think we or Louisville have a shot at getting number 1 seeds, without Southerland we are a sweet 16 team that will need luck to win with Southerland we are a legit final 4 favorite.)
8. Florida (they are a dangerous team, but the talk of them being the dominant team this year were joking they play in a crappy SEC and finally played a decent team on the road, but they are a legit 2 seed.)
9. Louisville (a team like Michigan State I wouldn't want to play in March, but Siva is the most overrated player in the country and actually kills this team when he tries to take over, but Smith is a stud and this team will be tough and honestly besides us have the best chance to move up to the 1 seed line as they could win out if they didn't have to play at the Dome in March)
10 Kansas (the TCU loss is what dropped them to 10 on my board and there offense sucks if McEllimore if off.)
11. Ohio State ( 5 losses and not many quality wins besides Michigan is why I have the Buckeyes as a 3 seed, but they could easily move up to the 2 line.)
12. Butler (awesome wins against Indiana, and Gonzaga, but they have a couple bad losses thus I would give them a 3 seed.
13. Gonzaga( this team looks legit, but they don't have enough quality wins to justify being a 2 seeds and the WCC knocks them to the 4 line.)
14. Kansas State (this shows you how weak college basketball is this year, K State doesn't scare me, but they are beat Florida and are a 4 seed.)
15. New Mexico (won at Cincinnati and are the top MWC team thus they have "earned" a 4 seed.
16. Marquette (honestly just picked them cause they are the 3rd Big East, but they aren't worthy.

With my top 16 here how I would bracket them using geography as the crux.
Indianapolis Midwest Region
1. Indiana
2. Syracuse (cause Miami would be closer to Washington D.C.
3. Ohio State
4. Kansas State

Washington D.C. East region
1. Michigan
2. Miami
3. Louisville
4. Marquette

Arlington Tx, South region
1. Duke
2. Florida
3. Kansas
4. New Mexico

Los Angeles West region
1. Michigan State
2. Arizona
3. Butler
4. Gonzaga

Obviously we have a lot of time till March, but here is how I see it right now, and I think the 4 line is as weak as I can ever remember without Kentucky North Carolina, or UCLA as good teams.
 
Decent s curve except MSU. Don't get that one at all. But hey anything can happen from now until March.
 
Good curve. A couple of changes I would make.

Here are my top 16 based on what the committee would do if the season ended today

1-Indiana
2-Michigan
3-Duke
4-Arizona

5-Michigan State
6-Miami
7-Syracuse
8-Florida

9-Gonzaga
10-Louisville
11-Ohio State
12-Kansas

13-Butler
14-New Mexico
15-Kansas State
16-Oregon-Marquette-Pittsburgh

Gonzaga is close to the 2 line with wins over KState, Oklahoma and Baylor. They gave the Butler game away. I dont see KState holding onto a top 4 seed. Pittsburgh is a team that will make a play for a top 4 seed. I do not think 3 B1G teams will get #1 seeds as they will cancel each other out. I think Indiana and Michigan are locks. Miami will pass Duke in the pecking order if they win the ACC regular season. I think Duke ends up on the 2 line when it is all said and done.
 
How is Miami closer to DC?

Syracuse is going to DC than Miami, but I think what was meant is Miami is closer to DC than Indy, and since Miami is ahead of SU on the S-Curve, they'd get to go to the closer site.
 
Here comes the bracket nerd to tell you that you broke a bracket rule.

The top three teams from every conference need to be in a different region. So you can't have Louisville and Marquette in the same region.
 
Syracuse is going to DC than Miami, but I think what was meant is Miami is closer to DC than Indy, and since Miami is ahead of SU on the S-Curve, they'd get to go to the closer site.
Correct, Miami would get DC in my scenairo because Miami is closer to DC than Indianapolis and thus the committee would put the top 2 seed in the region closest to them even if the number 1 overall seed was in that region. I frankly would just seed them naturally 1 thru 16 and give the teams geography consideration for just the first 2 rounds and keep the regional semi/finals naturally seeded, but the committee gives it consideration till the Final Four.
Also, jncuse your right and I forgot the top 3 teams can't be in the same region rule, but I honestly had no idea to whom put at 16 Marsh is right those 4 seeds are awfully hard to predict right now as I doubt K-State, Marquette, and whomever the MWC team is go up and down.
 
Alsacs - I liked your brackets -- and you are correct the last 4 seeds are very hard to identify right now. I did a bracket after Sunday games and I had the same issue. I did not have Kansas St or Marquette - I think I had Creighton and Minnesota.

I use the data from http://www.rpiforecast.com/ct/index.html to make my projections.
 
Right now, my top 16 (based on the rpiforecast.data - and trying to adjust for Kansas and Creighton losses) would be.

INDY

1. Indiana
2. Louisville
3. Kansas
4. Colorado St


WASHINGTON

1. Duke
2. Syracuse
3. Michigan st
4. Minnesota

ARLINGTON

1. Michigan
2. Florida
3. New Mexico
4. Butler

LOS ANGELES

1. Arizona
2. Miami
3. Gonzaga
4. Ohio St

I moved Miami and Florida to get more perceived balance in the regions.
 

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