What is the long play in CFB?

[HtownOrange]

So as not to hijack other threads, this thread is intended to peaceably forecast what happens to CFB in the long term. As this is speculation, debate is encouraged, but let's keep it friendly and not personal...unless what you state pertains to Rutgers or Georgetown, they deserve our derision.

Facts (Feel free to add to or correct the following):
- The Big 12 and SEC TV deals end in 2031
- The B1G TV deal ends in 2034
- The ACC TV deal ends in 2036

There are several theories that I have seen pertaining to the "end goal". I use quotes as some believe this is the actual goal as developed by execs, conferences and schools in the smoke filled backrooms over a game of poker, while others think that the players (TV execs, conferences, schools) talk, they lack the control others believe they have.

General Theory 1:
The players are scheming to develop a separate league. Only X (24, 32, 40, 64, whatever) will be allowed in the final number to be elevated to the "premier league: in CFB, all others will remain where they are for all of eternity, or at least until something blows up that plan. There are derivatives of this theory wherein relegation (soccer style) will be included.

General Theory 2:
The teams are already set, with a few spots open, mostly dependent on ND joining the B1G. The B1G and SEC will be the only two conferences left standing, everyone else may get streaming deals.

General Theory 3:
The SEC and B1G will grow large enough to encompass the remaining teams with value, then the world ends for all other teams.

General Theory 4:
The government will step in and "save" the day. Obviously, the government will then proceed to screw up everything, but all will be included with possibly a few exceptions.

General Theory 5:
The players are not as powerful as they wish to be and business realities will force some major compromises to their dastardly plans. This includes the less hard core fans skipping out on the super duper league and streaming their own teams. Basically, ignoring the super league and screwing up all of the fantastical fantasies of endless streams of money. See any Rutgers fan site, all three fans believe this.

General Theory 6:
The powers that be will analyze everything and realize that a deal with all of D1 like the pro leagues have will be the best way forward. The plan is already outlined several times over, allows for rewarding the winners without cutting out the losers, and gives everyone a reasonable shot at winning it all someday.

General Theory 7:
Insert here

General Theory 8:
Insert here


Plainly, the above is an oversimplification of the matter. In reality, there are infinite possibilities as this is future and our only limitation is our own minds. And there are so many sub-theories which will affect the future. Basically, this is a mess and will not be an easy to solve problem.

My guess is that it will be a mixture of the above. I lean towards the realization by the broadcasters and streamers that it will be easier to combine together and present one deal to all conferences, much like the pro leagues do with some paring down the number of schools but keeping it sufficiently large enough to prevent government interference and to keep viewers happy.

What do you think? Feel free to develop your theory deeper. Honest debate will likely yield a solution that is close to what happens.

 

[NKR1978]

The blue bloods ultimately do their own thing. I can't imagine OSU loves sharing their $24,000,000 title appearance money with Purdue after watching ND walk away free and clear. I think that will be after 2031. I think that's the end game, but we'll still be able to play high level football in the ACC or Big12/ACC/B1G rejects conference.

 

[HtownOrange]

The blue bloods ultimately do their own thing. I can't imagine OSU loves sharing their $24,000,000 title appearance money with Purdue after watching ND walk away free and clear. I think that will be after 2031. I think that's the end game, but we'll still be able to play high level football in the ACC or Big12/ACC/B1G rejects conference.

How big is your blue blood league? Is it nationwide? Who is included (or if you prefer, define a blue blood)?

While I agree with your sentiment, it remains hard to see tOSU scheduling as tough as ND year in and year out. They like having Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, et al. in the league for some easy games to balance out UM, PSU, and Mich. State. Similar to the SEC's scheduling easy the week prior to rivalry week.

 

[upperdeck]

It has taken NFL 60 yrs to get to a league with 30+ Teams. Even then the teams have come and gone.

If you go to even a 48 team CFB 75% of the people will lose interest over night. It becomes like college Lax or hockey where small pockets care. It will take a long time to get that back.

Relegation doesnt work becauase schedules matter to people too much. Unless you throw that out the window over night will people be happy that one year then are playing OSU/Mich/Ore and next yr they are playing Toledo/App st?

And what happens to those teams money wise when all the Donors leave instantly to a big school?

Soccer doesnt have 40-50 team leagues and without that the sport wont work.

How many SU fans will support the team for 40K of fans in league 6 while the work back up? Its one thing to support a team to win 10 games and a dream season. Quite another knowing even going 12-0 it will be 5 yrs before they play an important game again?

 

[dwilmont44]

Something like the NFL with 2 leagues.

The schools left out will try to form their own thing and it will die out fast.

 

[upperdeck]

The big boys are big for a reason.. But even in the SEC they still play 4 OC games and 3-5 others they should win 90% of the time. Look at this year with the bloated leagues and Ala/Mich fell out a More compressed big boy league means the odds of falling back are even bigger.

its one thing to not make a playoff and be 9-3. Quite another if they got 6-6 or 5-7 two or three years in a row when they cant make a schedule.

 

[upperdeck]

Something like the NFL with 2 leagues.

The schools left out will try to form their own thing and it will die out fast.

and if those die out then 75% of the college sports die as well

 

[HtownOrange]

It has taken NFL 60 yrs to get to a league with 30+ Teams. Even then the teams have come and gone.

If you go to even a 48 team CFB 75% of the people will lose interest over night. It becomes like college Lax or hockey where small pockets care. It will take a long time to get that back.

Relegation doesnt work becauase schedules matter to people too much. Unless you throw that out the window over night will people be happy that one year then are playing OSU/Mich/Ore and next yr they are playing Toledo/App st?

And what happens to those teams money wise when all the Donors leave instantly to a big school?

Soccer doesnt have 40-50 team leagues and without that the sport wont work.

How many SU fans will support the team for 40K of fans in league 6 while the work back up? Its one thing to support a team to win 10 games and a dream season. Quite another knowing even going 12-0 it will be 5 yrs before they play an important game again?

Good points, valid points. Every option I think of ends with a bad outcome unless they treat all of CFB with a pro-type TV deal where all teams get the same share from the deal.

I can see a smaller league, but as you say, too many fans will be alienated. I am in this camp, I watch Syracuse play. I catch a few games here and there but usually have my time committed elsewhere and cannot watch football all day Saturday. That lessens revenue for the networks and streamers. Let's be honest, SU v. Colgate will be watched by us on this site but it does not ring of national attention.

Relegation won't work. We are Americans, we like instant gratification and a shot at the top. We have no patience for a relegated team. You stated it better. Spot on regarding the money issue, no team can plan, build, develop when the revenue is cut from them as a relegated team.

So what happens?

 

[HtownOrange]

Something like the NFL with 2 leagues.

The schools left out will try to form their own thing and it will die out fast.

Can you expound on this? Do you mean 60 schools or another number?

The two league concept has merit if they are large enough. I have heard of having large conferences (leagues) with divisions more regionally aligned and a playoff built from there.

 

[Jcuse_44]

Simple answer. The SEC and Big ten will eat themselves and ruin college football for everyone else.

 

[HtownOrange]

Simple answer. The SEC and Big ten will eat themselves and ruin college football for everyone else.

After the B1G took the West Coast teams and hemmed in the SEC, I suspect that the SEC understands this now and realizes that they need victims, I mean non-conference opponents. They just don't know how to get from point A to point Z. Obviously, this is pure speculation but the SEC commissioner indicated several months ago something to this effect.

 

[PAcuse]

Would like to see it follow English Soccer league with promotions an demotions between things.
Most likely it will just be the B1G and SEC starting their own league with ND and getting whatever amount they want in a TV deal with the rest of the leagues fighting for pennies left.