What it might have looked like with 16 teams | Syracusefan.com

What it might have looked like with 16 teams

SWC75

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(This is a follow-up to this post: What it might have looked like with 8 teams )

Here’s a look at what it might have looked like if we had a 16 team playoff from 1998, (when they gave us the BCS instead). I’m assuming we would have had automatic bids for all BCS conference champions and at large bids based on the BCS/CFP rankings to fill out the field. If a conference champion wasn’t in a BCS ranking, I’ll list their “poll” (“P”) ranking- their highest ranking in the other polls. If they aren’t ranked in the polls, I’ll use the Sagarin (“S”) rankings. (Note: Sagarin rates the top 240 teams regardless of division so there can be FCS teams rated ahead of FBS teams.) From that you can see what the seedings would be.

My sources:
Template:NCAA football season navbox - Wikipedia
Template:NCAA football rankings navbox - Wikipedia
NCAAF Sagarin - NCAAF Football - USA TODAY

The conference abbreviations are:
ACC = Atlantic Coast Conference
BE = Big East
B10 = Big Ten
B12 = Big Twelve
BW = Big West
CUSA = Conference USA
MAC = Mid-America Conference
MW = Mountain West
P10/P12 = Pacific Ten or Twelve
SEC = Southeastern Conference
SB = Sun Belt
WAC = Western Athletic Conference
“NC record” is a ‘national championship’ type record: undefeated or with one loss.

1998
ACC- Florida State 11-1 (2nd)
BE- Syracuse 8-3 (15th)
B10- Ohio State 10-1 (4th)
B12- Texas A&M 11-2 (6th)
BW- Idaho 9-3 (S-69th)
CUSA- Tulane 11-0 (7th)
MAC- Marshall 12-1 (S-54th)
P10- UCLA 10-1 (5th)
SEC- Tennessee 12-0 (1st)
WAC- Air Force 12-1 (P-13th)
AL- Kansas State 11-1 (3rd), Arizona 11-1 (7th) Florida 9-2 (8th) Wisconsin 10-1 (9th) Tulane 11-0 (8th) Nebraska 9-3 (11th)
NC records left out: None

1999
ACC- Florida State 11-0 (1st)
BE- Virginia Tech 11-0 (2nd)
B10- Wisconsin 9-2 (7th)
B12- Nebraska 11-1 (3rd)
BW- Boise State 9-3 (S 53rd)
CUSA- Southern Mississippi 9-3 (P 13th)
MAC- Marshall 12-0 (12th)
P10- Stanford 8-4 (P 24th)
SEC- Alabama 10-2 (4th)
WAC- Utah 8-3 (25th)
AL- Tennessee 9-2 (5th), Kansas State 10-1 (6th), Michigan 9-2 (8th), Michigan State 9-2 (9th), Florida 9-3 (10th), Penn State 9-3 (11th)
NC records left out: None

2000
ACC- Florida State 11-1 (2nd)
BE- U of Miami 10-1 (3rd)
B10- Michigan 8-3 (16th)
B12- Oklahoma 12-0 (1st)
BW- Boise State 9-2 (S 30th)
CUSA- Louisville 9-2 (S 33rd)
MAC- Marshall 7-5 (S 74th)
MW- Colorado State 10-2 (P 14th)
P10- Washington 10-1 (4th)
SEC- Florida 10-2 (7th)
WAC- Texas Christian 10-1 (14th)
AL- Virginia Tech 10-1 (5th), Oregon State 10-1 (6th), Nebraska 9-2 (8th), Kansas State 10-3 (9th) Oregon 9-2 (10th)
NC records left out: Toledo 10-1 (S 16th)

2001
ACC- Maryland 10-1 (10th)
BE- U of Miami 12-0 (1st)
B10- Illinois 10-1 (8th)
B12- Colorado 10-2 (3rd)
CUSA- Louisville 10-2 (P 22nd)
MAC- Toledo 9-2 (P 25th)
MW - Brigham Young 12-1 (P 17th)
P10- Oregon 10-1 (4th)
SEC- Louisiana State 9-3 (13th)
SB- Middle Tennessee State 8-3 (S 74th)
WAC- Louisiana Tech 7-4 (S 64th)
AL- Nebraska 11-1 (2nd), Florida 9-2 (5th), Tennessee 10-2 (6th), Texas 10-2 (7th), Stanford 9-2 (9th)
NC records left out: None

2002
ACC- Florida State 9-4 (14th)
BE- U of Miami 12-0 (1st)
B10- Ohio State 13-0 (2nd)
B12- Oklahoma 11-2 (7th)
CUSA- Texas Christian 9-2 (S 49th)
MAC- Marshall 10-2 (P 24th)
MW- Colorado State 10-3 (P 23rd)
P10- Southern California 10-2 (4th)
SEC- Georgia 12-1 (3rd)
SB- North Texas State 7-5 (S 63rd)
WAC- Boise State 11-1 (P 15th)
AL- Iowa 11-1 (5th), Washington State 10-2 (6th), Kansas State 10-2 (8th), Notre Dame 10-2 (9th), Texas 10-2 (10th)
NC records left out: None

2003
ACC- Florida State 10-2 (7th)
BE- U of Miami 10-2 (9th)
B10- Michigan 10-2 (4th)
B12- Kansas State 11-3 (10th)
CUSA- Southern Mississippi 9-3 (S 51st)
MAC- Miami U. 11-1 (11th)
MW- Utah 9-2 (22nd)
P10- Southern California 11-1 (3rd)
SEC- Louisiana State 12-1 (2nd)
SB- North Texas State 9-3 (S 73rd)
WAC- Boise State 12-1 (17th)
AL- Oklahoma 12-1 (1st), Ohio State 10-2 (5th), Texas 10-2 (6th), Tennessee 10-2 (8th), Georgia 10-3 (12th)
NC records left out: Texas Christian 12-1 (18th)

2004
ACC- Virginia Tech 10-2 (8th)
BE- Pittsburgh 8-3 (21st)
B10- Iowa 9-2 (12th)
B12- Oklahoma 12-0 (2nd)
CUSA- Louisville 10-1 (10th)
MAC- Toledo 9-3 (S 83rd)
MW- Utah 11-0 (6th)
P10- Southern California 12-0 (1st)
SEC- Auburn 12-0 (3rd)
SB- North Texas State 7-4 (S 102nd)
WAC- Boise State 11-0 (9th)
AL- Texas 10-1 (4th), California 10-1 (5th), Georgia 9-2 (7th), Louisiana State 9-2 (11th), Michigan 9-2 (13th)
NC records left out: None

2005
ACC- Boston College 8-3 (21st)
BE- West Virginia 10-1 (11th)
B10- Penn State 10-1 (3rd)
B12- Texas 12-0 (2nd)
CUSA- Tulsa 8-4 (S 44th)
MAC- Akron 7-5 (S 94th)
MW- Texas Christian 10-1 (14th)
P10- Southern California 12-0 (1st)
SEC- Georgia 10-2 (7th)
SB- Louisiana-Lafayette 6-5 (S 119th)
WAC- Boise State 9-3 (S 46th)
AL- Ohio State 9-2 (4th), Oregon 10-1 (5th), Notre Dame 9-2 (6th), U of Miami 9-2 (8th), Auburn 9-2 (9th)
NC records left out: None

2006
ACC- Wake Forest 11-2 (14th)
BE- Louisville 11-1 (6tH)
B10- Ohio State 12-0 (1st)
B12- Oklahoma 11-2 (10th)
CUSA- Houston 10-3 (S 54th)
MAC- Central Michigan 10-3 (S 56th)
MW- Brigham Young 10-2 (20th)
P10- Southern California 10-2 (5th)
SEC- Florida 12-1 (2nd)
SB- Troy 7-5 (S 81st)
WAC- Boise State 12-0 (8th)
AL- Michigan 11-1 (3rd), Louisiana State 10-2 (4th), Wisconsin 11-1 (7th), Auburn 10-2 (9th), Notre dame 10-2 (11th)
NC records left out: None

2007
ACC- Virginia Tech 11-2 (3rd)
BE- West Virginia 10-2 (9th)
B10- Ohio State 11-1 (1st)
B12- Oklahoma 11-2 (4th)
CUSA- Central Florida 10-3 (S 46th)
MAC- Central Michigan 8-5 (S 82nd)
MW- Brigham Young 10-2 (17th)
P10- Southern California 10-2 (7th)
SEC- Louisiana State 11-2 (2nd)
SB- Troy 8-4 (S 53rd)
WAC- Hawaii 12-0 (10th)
AL- Georgia 10-2 (5th), Missouri 11-2 (6th), Kansas 11-1 (8th), Arizona State 10-2 (11th), Florida 9-3 (12th)
NC records left out: None

2008
ACC- Virginia Tech 9-4 (19th)
BE- Cincinnati 11-2 (12th)
B10- Penn State 11-1 (8th)
B12- Oklahoma 12-1 (1st)
CUSA- East Carolina 9-4 (S 54th)
MAC- Buffalo 8-5 (S 76th)
MW- Utah 12-0 (6th)
P10- Southern California 11-1 (5th)
SEC- Florida 12-1 (2nd)
SB- Troy 8-4 (S 70th)
WAC- Boise State 12-0 (9th)
AL- Texas 11-1 (3rd), Alabama 12-1 (4tH), Texas Tech 11-1 (7th), Ohio State 10-2 (10th), Texas Christian 10-2 (11th)
NC records left out: Ball State 12-1 (22nd)

2009
ACC- Georgia Tech 11-2 (9th)
BE- Cincinnati 12-0 (3rd)
B10- Ohio State 10-2 (8th)
B12- Texas 13-0 (2nd)
CUSA- East Carolina 9-4 (S 51st)
MAC- Central Michigan11-2 (25th)
MW- Texas Christian 12-0 (4th)
P10- Oregon 10-2 (7th)
SEC- Alabama 13-0 (1st)
SB- Troy 9-3 (S 69th)
WAC- Boise State 13-0 (6th)
AL- Florida 12-1 (5th), Iowa (10-2 (10th), Virginia Tech 9-3 (11th), Louisiana State 9-3 (12th), Penn State 10-2 (13th)
NC records left out: None

2010
ACC- Virginia Tech 11-2 (13th)
BE- West Virginia 9-3 (22nd)
B10- Wisconsin 11-1 (5th)
B12- Oklahoma 11-2 (7th)
CUSA- Central Florida 10-3 (25th)
MAC- Miami U. 9-4 (S 77th)
MW- Texas Christian 12-0 (3rd)
P10- Oregon 12-0 (2nd)
SEC- Auburn 13-0 (1st)
SB- Troy 8-4 (S 80th)
WAC- Boise State 11-1 (10th)
AL- Stanford 11-1 (4th), Ohio State 11-1 (6th), Arkansas 10-2 (8th), Michigan State 11-1 (9th), Louisiana State 10-2 (11th)
NC records left out: Nevada- Reno 12-1 (15th)

2011
ACC- Clemson 10-3 (15th)
BE- West Virginia 9-3 (23rd)
B10- Wisconsin 11-2 (10th)
B12- Oklahoma State 11-1 (3rd)
CUSA- Southern Mississippi 11-2 (21st)
MAC- Northern Illinois 10-3 (S 47th)
MW- Texas Christian 10-2 (15th)
P12- Oregon 11-2 (5th)
SEC- Louisiana State 13-0 (1st)
SB- Arkansas State 10-2 (S 67th)
WAC- Louisiana Tech 8-4 (S 48th)
AL- Alabama 11-1 (2nd), Stanford 11-1 (4th), Arkansas 10-2 (6th), Boise State 11-1 (7th), Kansas State 10-2 (8th)
NC records left out: Houston 12-1 (19th)

2012
ACC- Florida State 11-2 (12th)
BE- Louisville 10-2 (21st)
B10- Wisconsin 8-5 (23rd)
B12- Kansas State 11-1 (5th)
CUSA- Tulsa 10-3 (S 47th)
MAC- Northern Illinois 12-1 (15th)
MW- Boise State 10-2 (19th)
P12- Stanford 11-2 (6th)
SEC- Alabama 12-1 (2nd)
SB- Arkansas State 9-3 (S 50th)
WAC- Utah State 10-2 (22nd)
AL- Notre Dame 12-0 (1st), Florida 11-1 (3rd), Oregon 11-1 (4th), Georgia 11-2 (7th), Louisiana State 10-2 (8th)
NC records left out: Ohio State 12-0 (on probation)

2013
AAC- Central Florida 11-1 (15th)
ACC- Florida State 13-0 (1st)
B10- Michigan State 12-1 (4th)
B12- Baylor 11-1 (6th)
CUSA- Rice 10-3 (S 69th)
MAC- Bowling Green 10-3 (S 39th)
MW- Fresno State 11-1 (20th)
P12- Stanford 11-2 (5th)
SEC- Auburn 12-1 (2nd)
SB- Arkansas State 7-5 (S 95th)
AL- Alabama 11-1 (3rd), Ohio State 12-1 (7th), Missouri 11-2 (8th), South Carolina 10-2 (9th), Oregon 10-2 (10th), Oklahoma 10-2 (11th)
NC records left out: Louisville 11-1 (18th), Northern Illinois 12-1 (23rd)

2014
AAC- Memphis 9-3 (S 39th)
ACC- Florida State 13-0 (3rd)
B10- Ohio State 12-1 (4th)
B12- Baylor 11-1 (5th)
CUSA- Marshall 12-1 (S 23rd)
MAC- Northern Illinois 11-2 (S 72nd)
MW - Boise State 11-2 (20th)
P12- Oregon 12-1 (2nd)
SEC- Alabama 12-1 (1st)
SB- Georgia Southern 9-3 (S 63rd)
AL- Texas Christian 11-1 (6th), Mississippi State 10-2 (7th), Michigan State 10-2 (8th), Mississippi 9-3 (9th), Arizona 10-3 (10th), Kansas State 9-3 (11th)
NC records left out: None

2015
AAC- Houston 12-1 (18th)
ACC- Clemson 13-0 (1st)
B10- Michigan State 12-1 (3rd)
B12- Oklahoma 11-1 (4th)
CUSA- Western Kentucky 11-2 (25th)
MAC- Bowling Green 10-3 (S 53rd)
MW- San Diego State 10-3 (S 45th)
P12- Stanford 11-2 (6th)
SEC- Alabama 12-1 (2nd)
SB- Arkansas State 9-3 (S 78th)
AL- Iowa 12-1 (5th), Ohio State 11-1 (7th), Notre Dame 10-2 (8th), Florida State 10-2 (9th), North Carolina 11-2 (10th), Texas Christian 10-2 (11th)
NC records left out: None

2016
AAC- Temple 10-3 (24th)
ACC- Clemson 12-1 (2nd)
B10- Penn State 11-2 (5th)
B12- Oklahoma 10-2 (7th)
CUSA- Western Kentucky 10-3 (S 19th)
MAC- Western Michigan 13-0 (15th)
MW- San Diego State 10-3 (S 27th)
P12- Washington 12-1 (4th)
SEC- Alabama 13-0 (1st)
SB- Appalachian State 9-3 (S 40th)
AL- Ohio State 11-1 (3rd), Michigan 10-2 (6th), Wisconsin 10-3 (8th), Southern California 9-3 (9th), Colorado 10-3 (10th), Florida State 9-3 (11th)
NC records left out: None

2017
AAC- Central Florida 12-0 (12th)
ACC- Clemson 12-1 (1st)
B10- Ohio State 11-2 (5th)
B12- Oklahoma 12-1 (2nd)
CUSA- Florida Atlantic 10-3 (S 47th)
MAC- Toledo 11-2 (S 68th)
MW- Boise State 10-3 (25th)
P12- Southern California 11-2 (8th)
SEC- Georgia 12-1 (3rd)
SB- Appalachian State 8-4 (S 58th)
AL- Alabama 12-1 (4th), Wisconsin 12-1 (6th), Auburn 10-3 (7th), Penn State 10-2 (9th), U of Miami 10-2 (10th), Washington 10-2 (11th)
NC records left out: None

2018
AAC- Central Florida 12-0 (8th)
ACC- Clemson 13-0 (2nd)
B10- Ohio State 12-1 (5th)
B12- Oklahoma 12-1 (4th)
CUSA- Alabama-Birmingham 10-3 (S 73rd)
MAC- Northern Illinois 8-5 (S 84th)
MW- Fresno State 11-2 (21st)
P12- Washington 10-3 (9th)
SEC- Alabama 13-0 (1st)
SB- Appalachian State 10-2 (S 36th)
AL- Notre Dame 12-0 (3rd), Georgia 11-2 (5th), Michigan 10-2 (6th), Florida 9-3 (10th), Louisiana State 9-3 (11th), Kentucky 9-3 (14th)
NC records left out: None

The eight team field I described in my earlier post left out 16 power conference teams with national championship caliber records, (undefeated or one loss) and 14 non-power conference teams with that type of record, three of which were undefeated. The 16 team field reduces that to 1 power conference team that was only out because they were on probation and 7 non-power conference teams in 21 seasons. This plan fulfills what I think are the main requirements: all power conference teams with national championship records are in the tournament, guaranteeing its validity and everyone in FBS can win the championship if they just keep beating the team in front of them, just as everyone in every other division can do. I am now converted from an advocate of a 8 team to playoff to an advocate for a 16 team playoff for those reasons.

How do the other divisions do it?

D3 has 2-4-7 teams with 28 conferences, 26 of which get automatic bids to a 32 team tournament. One bid is “set aside solely for teams who are independents or in conferences without automatic bids”. There is one independent team in the division: Thomas Moore and two conferences without automatic bids: The New England Small College Athletic Conference, which is a kind of D3 version of the ivy league with Amherst, Williams, etc. that league, like the Ivys, ban post-season play. The other is The New England Women’s & Men’s Athletic Conference, which will get an automatic bid next year. At that point, the one spot reserved for the independent/non-auto bid conferences will be dropped.

D2 splits the country into four regions. Conference champions in those regions who are ranked in the top 9 teams in the region get automatic bids. A total of 7 teams in each region are invited, giving them a 28 team tournament for a division with 166 teams. There are four conferences in each region and 15 of their champions made the playoffs. In the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference Miles, a 5-6 team, won the conference title game and they were not invited.

FCS has 124 members and a 24 team tournament. There are 13 conferences. Three do not participate in the FCS tournament: the Ivy League, which allows no post season play in football, the Mid-East Conference and the Southwestern Conference, both containing historically black schools who prefer to play in their own bowl game, the Celebration Bowl. The other 10 conferences get automatic bids.

FBS has 129 members and a 4 team playoff with no automatic bids. Power conference teams with national championship caliber records get left out all the time and the non-power conference teams except Notre Dame have no shot.
 
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