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Message: [QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 1212537, member: 78"] 4th and 11 from the 30 4th down calculator from advanced nfl analytics. Not perfect but good enough 4.14 expected points if you convert. -.9 expected points if you don't. .21 expected points if you punt. If you have a 22% of getting 11 yards, you should be indifferent between punting and going for it. Even though you're down 2 scores, you're telling your offense, there's no way you can get 11 yards in one play. It doesn't matter if you actually think there's no way - you can't reveal that to your offense! They need their coach to believe in them a surprise pooch punt from the 30 is crappy too. just make a normal punt and take a couple penalties to back yourself up if you need to. you know he expected that punt to be inside the 10, as if it's easy for punters to half@ss a 25 yard punt on purpose [/QUOTE]