What we can learn from Nova/Kansas

[General20]

The two teams playing the best defense in the tournament so far have been Syracuse and Nova. The two best teams have been North Carolina and Kansas.

Before running into Nova, Kansas was blowing teams out. UNC has had a 14 point win against Notre Dame, a 15 point win against Indiana, and a 19 point win against Providence.

All three of the teams North Carolina beat are good teams, but none of them play any defense at all, and none of them match up particularly well with North Carolina.

So far its been easy for North Carolina, as it was easy for Kansas. When Kansas went up against Nova's defense they struggled, and I think not having to deal with adversity at all this season hurt them. They ended up putting together a really poor offensive performance in that game, and losing.

Could the same happen to North Carolina?

For all the talk about how lucky North Carolina is to play a 10 seed, I don't really see it that way. I think North Carolina would have been a lot better off against Virginia or Gonzaga.

I think our defense can cause them some trouble just like Nova's D did to Kansas, and I wonder how well North Carolina will be able to respond.

Now, make no mistake, North Carolina has some advantages that Kansas did not. Carolina is going to be able to bully us down low a little bit, and they should out rebound us.

I do think Syracuse is going to have to score more efficiently against North Carolina than they have yet in the tournament if they want to come away with this win, but I will say this, there is no way that the favorite going into the final four, a team that is putting up over 90 points a game in their last 3, and shooting close to 60% from the field, wants to run into Syracuse and the kind of D Syracuse is playing. I actually think this match up is a bad break for UNC.

 

[Jeremy L.]

They need to take it one possession at a time. Rebounding and inside play will be key and we all know that. I just want the offense to look good

 

[Orangemen]

By my crude count, we scored about 1.4 points per possession in the second half against Virginia.

What from that second half is translatable to this game against UNC?

 

[HoustonCuse]

Great post General, as always.

I think we will have a good offensive game. For as much luck as everyone says we have had, we have played against some damn good defenses and we have overcome that. Our offensive numbers have been very pedestrian, but I think we have a good chance of feeling a breath of fresh air a little bit facing UNC in terms of our offense.

SU Opponent KenPom Defensive Ratings
Dayton #14
MTSU #80
Gonzaga #25
Virginia #5
UNC #22

UNC is certainly no slouch, but I think that their defensive efficiency is boosted a lot by rebounding to end possessions, not necessarily their first shot defense. We will need to continue two trends: good foul shooting and Roberson being in beast mode. In our first matchup with UNC, Roberson was not in beast mode and we just got out lasted and they pulled away. In the second matchup, he was in about three-quarters beast mode, but we shot 5-20 from 3-point range and kept it to a 2 possession game on the road.

There is a legit chance of winning this game. It is no where near the landslide pushover that the haterazzi have lazily painted it to be. Yes Carolina has been playing great, but we in famous Digger tradition are "on a mission" and don't tell anyone but the defenses they have faced? Yeah.

UNC Opponent KenPom Defensive Ratings
FGCU #180
Providence #27
Indiana #75
Notre Dame #172
Syracuse #16

To put it in perspective: Their Elite 8 opponent had a defensive efficiency that is nowhere near as good as Middle Tennessee. And just like I said with UNC, I think our defensive rating is hampered by relatively poor defensive rebounding. Our first shot defense is much better than the #16 rating and is also much better in tournament play than in the regular season (something Boeheim has done for the past several years now somehow). Granted, UNC has the #1 rated offense, but heck UVa was the #9 offense.

 

[bevosu]

My thinking, since we came out of the Virginia game with a win, is, the defense is the key to our success. I say that based on the fact that when our defense wants to step it up it has shown that it can cause headaches for very good offenses.

Also...our offense is so inconsistent I have more confidence in the D being a game changer than the O. The D has enabled us to actually create some offense when we pressure.

 

[General20]

By my crude count, we scored about 1.4 points per possession in the second half against Virginia.

What from that second half is translatable to this game against UNC?

Short answer . . . nothing.

The story of that game has been the press, from everybody. But as usual I think most "experts" miss the point. Holding Virginia to 62 points is no special achievement. Even holding them to 27 in the second half isn't exactly noteworthy. Virginia plays at a slow pace and doesn't score a lot of points. The real accomplishment was scoring 47 points against an excellent Virginia D in one half. Syracuse scored on 9 consecutive possessions against Virginia during their comeback (making 9 of 10 shots, and getting the O rebound and put back on the one shot they missed). If they didn't score every time the few times they turned Virginia over would not have mattered much. I wish there was a way to bottle that, but of course there is not.

I think Richardson has reason to be confident against UNC after his performance against Virginia. I think Cooney has reason to be confident against UNC after putting up 27 or 28 against them earlier in the season, I think Gbinije has reason to be confident because he's always good. The problem is, there is no correlation between being confident and playing great. If there was, Syracuse would get crushed by UNC because they are rightfully as confident as a team can be.

As Boeheim said before the Virginia game - The team that wants it most is not going to win this game, the team that plays the best is.

 

[CorduroyG]

I said this the other day. Indiana and notre dame are bad defensive teams and played carolina's game, running up and down the court with them. No team in the country is gonna beat unc in a track meet. We gotta limit turnovers and race back on D and make them play half court offense, thats the biggest key.

I like this matchup. I think unc is gonna struggle offensively, they havent faced a team that plays D in awhile.

 

[jncuse]

The two teams playing the best defense in the tournament so far have been Syracuse and Nova. The two best teams have been North Carolina and Kansas.

Before running into Nova, Kansas was blowing teams out. UNC has had a 14 point win against Notre Dame, a 15 point win against Indiana, and a 19 point win against Providence.

Nova was a 2 point dog to Kansas and it was hardly a shocker. They had beat Miami by 23 and Iowa by 19. They had been just as dominant in Kansas through the first 3 rounds. I just don't see a great connection -- yes it was a good defensive effort, an effort by a team that is better than us.

I know nobody wants to admit it here, but we are not in the same class as Villanova this year. But that is fine, if we play them in a one game set we can win, just like we can do against UNC.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Me after reading this :

 

[Knicks411]

Great post General, as always.

I think we will have a good offensive game. For as much luck as everyone says we have had, we have played against some damn good defenses and we have overcome that. Our offensive numbers have been very pedestrian, but I think we have a good chance of feeling a breath of fresh air a little bit facing UNC in terms of our offense.

SU Opponent KenPom Defensive Ratings
Dayton #14
MTSU #80
Gonzaga #25
Virginia #5
UNC #22

UNC is certainly no slouch, but I think that their defensive efficiency is boosted a lot by rebounding to end possessions, not necessarily their first shot defense. We will need to continue two trends: good foul shooting and Roberson being in beast mode. In our first matchup with UNC, Roberson was not in beast mode and we just got out lasted and they pulled away. In the second matchup, he was in about three-quarters beast mode, but we shot 5-20 from 3-point range and kept it to a 2 possession game on the road.

There is a legit chance of winning this game. It is no where near the landslide pushover that the haterazzi have lazily painted it to be. Yes Carolina has been playing great, but we in famous Digger tradition are "on a mission" and don't tell anyone but the defenses they have faced? Yeah.

UNC Opponent KenPom Defensive Ratings
FGCU #180
Providence #27
Indiana #75
Notre Dame #172
Syracuse #16

To put it in perspective: Their Elite 8 opponent had a defensive efficiency that is nowhere near as good as Middle Tennessee. And just like I said with UNC, I think our defensive rating is hampered by relatively poor defensive rebounding. Our first shot defense is much better than the #16 rating and is also much better in tournament play than in the regular season (something Boeheim has done for the past several years now somehow). Granted, UNC has the #1 rated offense, but heck UVa was the #9 offense.

Checked some of the stats on Ken Pom. interestingly, UNC isn't that good of a defensive rebounding team. They're 189th in the country. They're actually really good at 2 point defense (44.2, 24th in the country) I'm going to assume that is directly related to how much size they have inside, it can be hard to finish over the top of them. They are much better than us at 2 point defense, we're much better at 3 point defense. We shoot a decent amount of 3's, so this could play into our hands.

Carolina is also an incredible offensive rebounding team, 3rd in the country. We are...not good on the defensive glass, 337th in the country.

However, Carolina does allow teams to shoot 36% from deep. (i wonder if you can tie this at all to the fact that their 2 primary guards are 6-2 and 6-0).
Games are never so simple, but you could look at the numbers and see how this basically comes down to carolina offensive rebounds against our 3's.

 

[Cuse315Pat]

Thought this was interesting on ESPN

 

[Newhouser]

I said this the other day. Indiana and notre dame are bad defensive teams and played carolina's game, running up and down the court with them. No team in the country is gonna beat unc in a track meet. We gotta limit turnovers and race back on D and make them play half court offense, thats the biggest key.

I like this matchup. I think unc is gonna struggle offensively, they havent faced a team that plays D in awhile.

I thought ND tried to milk the shot clock and generate offense at the end of the clock. Problem is if you come up empty too many times (as they did in the 2nf half) the strategy is FUBAR.

 

[HoustonCuse]

View attachment 59187

Thought this was interesting on ESPN

I don't buy it. The teams in FF were horrible offensive teams. Butler shot under 19% in the championship game. I just watched our guys hit plenty of shots with my own eyes. Lydon hit maybe 5 or 6 threes in a row.

 

[andyw715]

I don't buy it. The teams in FF were horrible offensive teams. Butler shot under 19% in the championship game. I just watched our guys hit plenty of shots with my own eyes. Lydon hit maybe 5 or 6 threes in a row.

There was one point where the entire floor of players made a 12' J from the side of the lane, twice. Robeson included.

 

[Cuse315Pat]

There was one point where the entire floor of players made a 12' J from the side of the lane, twice. Robeson included.

Even Coleman!? So... you're saying there's a chance?

 

[pulaski74]

By my crude count, we scored about 1.4 points per possession in the second half against Virginia.

What from that second half is translatable to this game against UNC?

Well, what happened to the guy w/ the smelly finger in the uva game? made everything he threw up in the first half did he not play the second half? Maybe someone made a change?

 

[721Comstock]

Well, what happened to the guy w/ the smelly finger in the uva game? made everything he threw up in the first half did he not play the second half? Maybe someone made a change?

He actually hit his 6th (and FINAL) 3 right after we initated the press, on the very first series.
That's when he made that stank finger gesture - which probably got Karma squarely on our side for the rest of the way.
THAT is when we started our run to come back, and take the lead.

 

[pulaski74]

He actually hit his 6th (and FINAL) 3 right after we initated the press, on the very first series.
That's when he made that stank finger gesture - which probably got Karma squarely on our side for the rest of the way.
THAT is when we started our run to come back, and take the lead.

Man that is the worst move I've seen in my life, what was he thinking? I don't care what the outcome is saturday, just glad that so b got to eat his own......

 

[Devland]

View attachment 59187

Thought this was interesting on ESPN

Interesting because I heard someone on the radio talking about the three point shooting at Reliant Stadium. He said that it is somewhat of a myth that three point shooting is worse it domed stadiums. Statistically in most domed stadiums the three point percentage is close to standard arenas. Reliant Stadium has been the exception. Teams regularly shoot well below their average there. The overall percentage is in the low 30's. The data was from a 14 year sample.

 

[HoustonCuse]

It's 15 games guys. Don't buy it. It is just the mindless talking points somebody handed down to these hacks.

 

[Devland]

It's 15 games guys. Don't buy it. It is just the mindless talking points somebody handed down to these hacks.

Just repeating it as I heard it on the radio.