I think we're still a little bit shakier than recent records and bowls would suggest. I mean, we were basically one play away from sitting at home with a questionable quarterback situation. We made plays at the end of the season. That matters, but it's not like we cruised in to the end of the year. That struggle matters too.
I think we could be a much better team, and still win only 6 regular season games. I know I've said it seasons before, but I won't actually believe we're taking all the steps forward as a program we need to until I see the offense improve, a lot.
True, to some extent. We got to bowls in the Marrone era by shortening games to mitigate talent differential. The first time around, we won some games early but then had to hang on by the skin of our teeth to make it. In 2012, we got out of the gate horribly and bowl eligibility was no guarantee until we won late in the season @ Missouri. Last year, we suffered a couple of losses to start the season, and really struggled with the offensive consistency for a lengthy stretch, but we won all of the 50-50 games except for one [Pitt], and finished strong.
Here's where my optimism stems from: I think Hunt is pretty good, and will be not only much more consistent, but also a difference maker for us this year. By my count, we return 8 starters on offense, including 4 OL. Macky was great, but all three starters we lost are replaceable. Instead of struggling out of the gate to find our offensive concept / identity, we're going to come out strong out of the gate. Yes, we have some defensive question marks [most of which IMO are depth-based], but I think we'll be better defensively than many expect as our younger players gain experience.
This year, we've got a brutal stretch after the first third. But I look at the attrition losses Louisville suffered, Notre Dame suffered, Pitt suffered, BC suffered, etc. and I think--why the hell not? We can certainly be competitive on paper with any of them [again, my opinion only].
My expectation is that the offense is going to carry the defense in the early portion of the schedule until they get their sea legs. And I have faith in the defensive coaches we have--I believe that we have the personnel to field a defense that can be a unit of strength. If Hunt is as good as I think he is, then getting to 8 regular season wins--even with the tough stretch in the middle--is easily attainable.
If he isn't--if he's the guy who we saw after the Tulane game who struggled to complete 40% of his passes and couldn't produce scoring drives--then we're going to struggle to be bowl eligible.
My bet is on the former.