SWC75
Bored Historian
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#1 ranked teams have gone down 6 times so far this year. I wondered if that was a record. I decided to find out, using ESPN’s College Basketball Encyclopedia and their website. The polls began for the 1948-49 season and for the first couple of years they didn’t start until January. I’ve only counted the occasions when a team ranked #1 in a weekly poll lost during that week. If they lost twice that week I didn’t increase the total because when a #1 team loses, it is recognized that they will not be ranked #1 in the next poll and that the positon is essentially vacant until a new poll selects their successor. I also discounted when a #1 team was reduced below that ranking despite not having lost. This is regular season polls and defeats only. This list is the year and the number of weeks the #1 team lost per the above criteria.
The next column is the number of losses the Final Four teams had going into the Final Four and the number of losses the championship team wound up with. The lower these numbers, the more “chalk” the tournament was. It should be noted that the tournament went to 32 teams in 1975 and 64 in 1985. Top teams played only two games to get to the Final four prior to ’75 and three games between ’75 and ’84. College basketball has become more balanced as it’s become more popular. Now it takes 4. So there is a greater potential for upsets now than in past eras.
1948-49 1 time a #1 team lost in the regular season. The Final Four teams had 19 losses among them going in and the winner wound up with 2 losses.
1949-50 0 25/5
1950-51 5 13/2
1951-52 4 21/3
1952-53 4 11/3
1953-54 2 33/4
1954-55 3 15/1
1955-56 0 11/0
1956-57 1 16/0
1957-58 3 16/6
1958-59 3 21/4
1959-60 1 8/3
1960-61 0 13/3
1961-62 1 20/2
1962-63 1 12/2
1963-64 2 13/0
1964-65 2 17/2
1965-66 2 11/1
1966-67 0 12/0
1967-68 1 11/1
1968-69 1 12/1
1969-70 3 6/2
1970-71 1 13/1
1971-72 0 13/0
1972-73 0 12/0
1973-74 3 13/1
1974-75 1 16/3
1975-76 0 10/0
1976-77 2 16/7
1977-78 4 17/2
1978-79 5 16/6
1979-80 3 29/3
1980-81 3 22/9
1981-82 3 24/2
1982-83 5 24/10
1983-84 2 22/3
1984-85 2 18/10
1985-86 2 23/7
1986-87 4 19/4
1987-88 4 22/11
1988-89 5 24/7
1989-90 7 23/5
1990-91 0 19/7
1991-92 2 20/2
1992-93 6 17/4
1993-94 8 20/3
1994-95 7 22/2
1995-96 4 17/2
1996-97 2 23/9
1997-98 6 14/4
1998-99 2 15/2
1999-00 6 40/7
2000-01 6 25/4
2001-02 4 22/4
2002-03 6 23/5
2003-04 7 23/6
2004-05 2 15/4
2005-06 4 22/6
2006-07 5 19/5
2007-08 3 9/3
2008-09 6 21/4
2009-10 4 23/5
2010-11 4 37/9
2011-12 3 24/2
2012-13 6 29/5
2013-14 4 27/8
2014-15 0 18/4
2015-16 6 ?/?
I haven’t devised a formula for combining these stats into one that would tell us the relationship between the number of times #1 goes down and the number of losses Final Four and national championship teams have. Just looking down the numbers, I don’t really see a pattern that suggests a relationship. The big thing I see is that the number of losses Final Four teams and national champions have suffered has gone sharply up beginning with the 80’s. It’s a crap shoot but the number of times a #1 team goes down doesn’t tell you how much of a crap shoot it will be this year.
The next column is the number of losses the Final Four teams had going into the Final Four and the number of losses the championship team wound up with. The lower these numbers, the more “chalk” the tournament was. It should be noted that the tournament went to 32 teams in 1975 and 64 in 1985. Top teams played only two games to get to the Final four prior to ’75 and three games between ’75 and ’84. College basketball has become more balanced as it’s become more popular. Now it takes 4. So there is a greater potential for upsets now than in past eras.
1948-49 1 time a #1 team lost in the regular season. The Final Four teams had 19 losses among them going in and the winner wound up with 2 losses.
1949-50 0 25/5
1950-51 5 13/2
1951-52 4 21/3
1952-53 4 11/3
1953-54 2 33/4
1954-55 3 15/1
1955-56 0 11/0
1956-57 1 16/0
1957-58 3 16/6
1958-59 3 21/4
1959-60 1 8/3
1960-61 0 13/3
1961-62 1 20/2
1962-63 1 12/2
1963-64 2 13/0
1964-65 2 17/2
1965-66 2 11/1
1966-67 0 12/0
1967-68 1 11/1
1968-69 1 12/1
1969-70 3 6/2
1970-71 1 13/1
1971-72 0 13/0
1972-73 0 12/0
1973-74 3 13/1
1974-75 1 16/3
1975-76 0 10/0
1976-77 2 16/7
1977-78 4 17/2
1978-79 5 16/6
1979-80 3 29/3
1980-81 3 22/9
1981-82 3 24/2
1982-83 5 24/10
1983-84 2 22/3
1984-85 2 18/10
1985-86 2 23/7
1986-87 4 19/4
1987-88 4 22/11
1988-89 5 24/7
1989-90 7 23/5
1990-91 0 19/7
1991-92 2 20/2
1992-93 6 17/4
1993-94 8 20/3
1994-95 7 22/2
1995-96 4 17/2
1996-97 2 23/9
1997-98 6 14/4
1998-99 2 15/2
1999-00 6 40/7
2000-01 6 25/4
2001-02 4 22/4
2002-03 6 23/5
2003-04 7 23/6
2004-05 2 15/4
2005-06 4 22/6
2006-07 5 19/5
2007-08 3 9/3
2008-09 6 21/4
2009-10 4 23/5
2010-11 4 37/9
2011-12 3 24/2
2012-13 6 29/5
2013-14 4 27/8
2014-15 0 18/4
2015-16 6 ?/?
I haven’t devised a formula for combining these stats into one that would tell us the relationship between the number of times #1 goes down and the number of losses Final Four and national championship teams have. Just looking down the numbers, I don’t really see a pattern that suggests a relationship. The big thing I see is that the number of losses Final Four teams and national champions have suffered has gone sharply up beginning with the 80’s. It’s a crap shoot but the number of times a #1 team goes down doesn’t tell you how much of a crap shoot it will be this year.
