Where do we stand? S&P+ Week 10

[TheCusian]

Alright, we'll get to the rankings in a min but first - the S&P+ has taken some heat for having us ranked so high. It's a bit baffling, but I think this helps:

- Hard truth time: We've played to our competition all season. We've won some tight games vs bad teams (#98 UNC) and played poorly enough to lose but for turnovers and grit (only a 26% post game win expectancy vs #87 Wake Forest). If it feels like we can win any game or lose any game, you're right. The good news is we have a game vs #104 Louisville (who most def have quit on their horrible coach) and two games we should be very game for.

- Last week most of the teams we've beaten, lost (NC State the lone exception). This hurts our ranking.

- Computer algorithms don't like to give credit for things like "not a great performance, but we gutted out a win"... Fans rightly see the win vs Wake as progress, because it is.

- An 86% chance to finish with 8 or 9 wins is a fantastic season.

Here's this weeks rankings:

#130 UCONN (1-8)
Finished #119 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN O (Previous Week): #98 (#86) -12
UCONN D (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN ST (Previous Week): #27 (#41) +14
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 100%

#104 LOUISVILLE (2-7)
Finished #16 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #104 (#99) -5
Louisville O (Previous Week): #107 (#99) -8
Louisville D (Previous Week): #103 (#99) -4
Louisville ST (Previous Week): #31 (#30) -1
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 83% (79%) +4%

#98 UNC (1-7)
Finished #94 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #98 (#91) -7
UNC O (Previous Week): #92 (#97) +5
UNC D (Previous Week): #95 (#82) -13
UNC ST (Previous Week): #46 (#55) +9
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 84%

#92 WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-4)
Finished #74 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #92 (#85) -7
Western Michigan O (Previous Week): #40 (#28) -12
Western Michigan D (Previous Week): #110 (#105) -5
Western Michigan ST (Previous Week): #130 (#129) -1
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 53%

#87 WAKE FOREST (4-5)
Finished #37 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #87 (#88) +1
Wake Forest O (Previous Week): #63 (#59) -4
Wake Forest D (Previous Week): #93 (#102) +9
Wake Forest ST (Previous Week): #87 (#87)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 26%

#75 FLORIDA STATE (4-5)
Finished #43 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #75 (#68) -7
Florida State O (Previous Week): #102 (#111) -9
Florida State D (Previous Week): #39 (#29) -10
Florida State ST (Previous Week): #101 (#96) -5
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 98%

#71 PITT (5-4)
Finished #82 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #71 (#80) +9
PITT O (Previous Week): #50 (#49) -1
PITT D (Previous Week): #87 (#98) +11
PITT ST (Previous Week): #61 (#68) +7
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 16%

#58 SYRACUSE (7-2)
Finished #88 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #58 (#51) -7
Syracuse O (Previous Week): #41 (#30) -11
Syracuse D (Previous Week): #77 (#81) +4
Syracuse ST (Previous Week): #1 (#1)

#40 NC STATE (6-2)
Finished #38 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #40 (#35) -5
NC State O (Previous Week): #23 (#31) +8
NC State D (Previous Week): #55 (#49) -6
NC State ST (Previous Week): #98 (#119) +21
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 71%

#38 BC (7-2)
Finished #66 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #38 (#38)
BC O (Previous Week): #65 (#69) +4
BC D (Previous Week): #28 (#32) +4
BC ST (Previous Week): #79 (#88) +9
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 34% (39%) -5%

#6 NOTRE DAME (9-0)
Finished #13 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #6 (#6)
Notre Dame O (Previous Week): #27 (#34) +7
Notre Dame D (Previous Week): #3 (#6) +3
Notre Dame ST (Previous Week): #64 (#56) -8
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 17% (23%) -4%

#2 CLEMSON (9-0)
Finished #8 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #2 (#2)
Clemson O (Previous Week): #7 (#13) +6
Clemson D (Previous Week): #2 (#2)
Clemson ST (Previous Week): #70 (#67) -3
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 9%

 

[upperdeck]

computers have no way to factor in game style, teams that beat you up like ala/mich will win games differently than teams like Ok/SU that finesse teams its not just run vs pass

 

[Whitey23]

computers have no way to factor in game style, teams that beat you up like ala/mich will win games differently than teams like Ok/SU that finesse teams its not just run vs pass

Adjusted pace is a metric in S&P+

Adj. Pace
This takes into account both a team’s tempo (in terms of seconds per play) and the type of plays it runs. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team’s run-pass ratio into account.

 

[upperdeck]

thats not what i mean.

pace of play run vs pass is not the same thing..

you can run and not be physical like baylor/oregon.

style of play.. Ala beats you up, teams shut down doesnt matter if run or not or they run or not.

computers think LSU has won of the top 30 offenses in the country too.

you can run more plays because of tempo or also because your plays work better or because your D plays well.

we ran more plays last week and played at a way slower tempo than wake..

 

[TheCusian]

style doesn’t really matter. It’s about how effecient and explosive you are. So yes, it doesn’t take it into account directly.

But it does asssume a quick effecient drive is a sign of a good offense more than 3yds a play.

Bama is a bad analogy this year. They are not the beat ya up slow long 3yds a play type team anymore

 

[upperdeck]

they still are they just dont have too.. and its more about the D, mauling the offense.