Where do we stand? S&P+ Week 11

[TheCusian]

We've been moving up week over week (mostly) and this week thanks to BC getting destroyed by Clemson - we've jumped them. Also, I really enjoy watching Randy Edsall's fighting Huskies sit squarely as the worst team in FBS week over week.

Bill Connelly also said that this is the first week that features a more prominent special teams ranking in the overall algorithm. The data is not stable enough early in the season (fewer special teams plays per game). So that helps us.

Here's a link to the S&P+ team profiles. Good stuff in there.

#130 UCONN (1-9)
Finished #119 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN O (Previous Week): #94 (#98) +4
UCONN D (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN ST (Previous Week): #44 (#27) -17
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 100%

#104 LOUISVILLE (2-8)
Finished #16 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #104 (#104)
Louisville O (Previous Week): #105 (#107) +2
Louisville D (Previous Week): #105 (#103) -2
Louisville ST (Previous Week): #38 (#31) -7
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 99%

#98 WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-4)
Finished #74 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #98 (#92) -6
Western Michigan O (Previous Week): #41 (#40) -1
Western Michigan D (Previous Week): #108 (#110) +2
Western Michigan ST (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 53%

#95 UNC (1-8)
Finished #94 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #95 (#98) +3
UNC O (Previous Week): #84 (#92) +8
UNC D (Previous Week): #98 (#95) -3
UNC ST (Previous Week): #59 (#46) -13
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 84%

#87 FLORIDA STATE (4-6)
Finished #43 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #87 (#75) -12
Florida State O (Previous Week): #104 (#102) -2
Florida State D (Previous Week): #43 (#39) -4
Florida State ST (Previous Week): #101 (#101)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 98%

#85 WAKE FOREST (5-5)
Finished #37 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #85 (#87) +2
Wake Forest O (Previous Week): #60 (#63) +3
Wake Forest D (Previous Week): #89 (#93) +4
Wake Forest ST (Previous Week): #87 (#87)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 26%

#62 PITT (6-4)
Finished #82 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #62 (#71) +9
PITT O (Previous Week): #44 (#50) +6
PITT D (Previous Week): #77 (#87) +10
PITT ST (Previous Week): #52 (#61) +9
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 16%

#46 BC (7-3)
Finished #66 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #46 (#38) -8
BC O (Previous Week): #86 (#65) -21
BC D (Previous Week): #25 (#28) +3
BC ST (Previous Week): #75 (#79) +4
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 47% (34%) +13%

#45 NC STATE (6-3)
Finished #38 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #45 (#40) -5
NC State O (Previous Week): #29 (#23) -6
NC State D (Previous Week): #64 (#55) -9
NC State ST (Previous Week): #61 (#98) +37
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 71%

#39 SYRACUSE (8-2)
Finished #88 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #39 (#58) +19
Syracuse O (Previous Week): #39 (#41) +3
Syracuse D (Previous Week): #68 (#77) +9
Syracuse ST (Previous Week): #1 (#1)

#6 NOTRE DAME (10-0)
Finished #13 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #6 (#6)
Notre Dame O (Previous Week): #27 (#27)
Notre Dame D (Previous Week): #3 (#3)
Notre Dame ST (Previous Week): #54 (#64) +10
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 22% (17%) +5%

#2 CLEMSON (10-0)
Finished #8 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #2 (#2)
Clemson O (Previous Week): #11 (#7) -4
Clemson D (Previous Week): #1 (#2) +1
Clemson ST (Previous Week): #63 (#70) +7
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 9%

 

[721Comstock]

ND game is getting closer to a 1 in 4 chance of outright win, and now BC is getting close to a coin flip.
We'll take it!

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I really wish he would look at these and tweak his formula. It isn’t hard to put these teams in order using basic stats. These advanced stats are supposed to be more accurate.

 

[leftytg]

we've faced some realllllly soft defenses this season according to this metric.

130, 108, 105, 98, and 89 - nearly half our schedule has featured cover your eyes awful defenses.

Florida St and NC St are the only average-ish defenses we've played, and we got both of them at home.

 

[reedny]

We've been moving up week over week (mostly) and this week thanks to BC getting destroyed by Clemson - we've jumped them. Also, I really enjoy watching Randy Edsall's fighting Huskies sit squarely as the worst team in FBS week over week.

Bill Connelly also said that this is the first week that features a more prominent special teams ranking in the overall algorithm. The data is not stable enough early in the season (fewer special teams plays per game). So that helps us.

Here's a link to the S&P+ team profiles. Good stuff in there.

#130 UCONN (1-9)
Finished #119 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN O (Previous Week): #94 (#98) +4
UCONN D (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN ST (Previous Week): #44 (#27) -17
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 100%

#104 LOUISVILLE (2-8)
Finished #16 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #104 (#104)
Louisville O (Previous Week): #105 (#107) +2
Louisville D (Previous Week): #105 (#103) -2
Louisville ST (Previous Week): #38 (#31) -7
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 99%

#98 WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-4)
Finished #74 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #98 (#92) -6
Western Michigan O (Previous Week): #41 (#40) -1
Western Michigan D (Previous Week): #108 (#110) +2
Western Michigan ST (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 53%

#95 UNC (1-8)
Finished #94 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #95 (#98) +3
UNC O (Previous Week): #84 (#92) +8
UNC D (Previous Week): #98 (#95) -3
UNC ST (Previous Week): #59 (#46) -13
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 84%

#87 FLORIDA STATE (4-6)
Finished #43 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #87 (#75) -12
Florida State O (Previous Week): #104 (#102) -2
Florida State D (Previous Week): #43 (#39) -4
Florida State ST (Previous Week): #101 (#101)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 98%

#85 WAKE FOREST (5-5)
Finished #37 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #85 (#87) +2
Wake Forest O (Previous Week): #60 (#63) +3
Wake Forest D (Previous Week): #89 (#93) +4
Wake Forest ST (Previous Week): #87 (#87)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 26%

#62 PITT (6-4)
Finished #82 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #62 (#71) +9
PITT O (Previous Week): #44 (#50) +6
PITT D (Previous Week): #77 (#87) +10
PITT ST (Previous Week): #52 (#61) +9
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 16%

#46 BC (7-3)
Finished #66 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #46 (#38) -8
BC O (Previous Week): #86 (#65) -21
BC D (Previous Week): #25 (#28) +3
BC ST (Previous Week): #75 (#79) +4
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 47% (34%) +13%

#45 NC STATE (6-3)
Finished #38 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #45 (#40) -5
NC State O (Previous Week): #29 (#23) -6
NC State D (Previous Week): #64 (#55) -9
NC State ST (Previous Week): #61 (#98) +37
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 71%

#39 SYRACUSE (8-2)
Finished #88 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #39 (#58) +19
Syracuse O (Previous Week): #39 (#41) +3
Syracuse D (Previous Week): #68 (#77) +9
Syracuse ST (Previous Week): #1 (#1)

#6 NOTRE DAME (10-0)
Finished #13 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #6 (#6)
Notre Dame O (Previous Week): #27 (#27)
Notre Dame D (Previous Week): #3 (#3)
Notre Dame ST (Previous Week): #54 (#64) +10
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 22% (17%) +5%

#2 CLEMSON (10-0)
Finished #8 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #2 (#2)
Clemson O (Previous Week): #11 (#7) -4
Clemson D (Previous Week): #1 (#2) +1
Clemson ST (Previous Week): #63 (#70) +7
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 9%

"Fighting Huskies" lol Should Syracuse O be +2 from previous week? Anyway fun stats. THx for the work.

 

[TheCusian]

 

[TheCusian]

I really wish he would look at these and tweak his formula. It isn’t hard to put these teams in order using basic stats. These advanced stats are supposed to be more accurate.

They don’t line up with your preconceived ratings, so they must need tweaking?

I have a few bones to pick too - but they are overall pretty good, IMO.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

They don’t line up with your preconceived ratings, so they must need tweaking?

I have a few bones to pick too - but they are overall pretty good, IMO.

Half his stuff makes zero sense. Sorry but the raw stats do not say we have a better chance of beating ND than Wake a second time. If the formula is flawed it renders the “advanced stat” useless. I just want a good stat not some therum that is highly flawed. It really isn’t hard to rank teams 1-130

 

[TheCusian]

Half his stuff makes zero sense. Sorry but the raw stats do not say we have a better chance of beating ND than Wake a second time. If the formula is flawed it renders the “advanced stat” useless. I just want a good stat not some therum that is highly flawed. It really isn’t hard to rank teams 1-130

That’s not what those % are.

The % for upcoming games is what you’d think: chances of a win based on his numbers

The postgame win expectancy is the chances of a win based on the actual game stats. It’s a good indicator of how well we actually played.

Scores aren’t always the best indicator. Sometimes you play really well and lose. Sometimes you play poorly and win. If you just go by the final score, you miss stuff.

The formula may be flawed, but that’s not the proof.