Where do we stand? S&P+ Week 4

[TheCusian]

So this uses S&P+ by Bill Connelly. You can read about it here. But it's basically:

It can be used to make predictions, similar to the analytics systems Vegas uses. It is, at its heart, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of what college football teams can most consistently do to win football games (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers)

(If you gamble, his predictions beat the spread about 53% of the time. Which is pretty good.)

For this edition, I've added some stuff:

• Special Teams ranking (ST), mostly because it's easy to include and we're really good at them
• Postgame Win expectancy (which is basically, had this game been played a hundred times the team would have won this amount of times given the data)
• Win Probability

#50 SYRACUSE (4-0)
Finished #88 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #50 (#61) +11
Syracuse O (Previous Week): #49 (#77) +28
Syracuse D (Previous Week): #61 (#56) -5
Syracuse ST (Previous Week): #2

Our opponents, ranked:

#129 UCONN (1-3)
Finished #119 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #129 (#129)
UCONN O (Previous Week): #74 (#71) -3
UCONN D (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN ST (Previous Week): #19
Postgame win expectancy: 100%

#85 LOUISVILLE (2-2)
Finished #16 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #85 (#76) -9
Louisville O (Previous Week): #109 (#90) -19
Louisville D (Previous Week): #57 (#67) +10
Louisville ST (Previous Week): #57
Win Probability (Previous Week): 79%

#84 WAKE FOREST (2-2)
Finished #37 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #84 (#57) -27
Wake Forest O (Previous Week): #72 (#46) -26
Wake Forest D (Previous Week): #92 (#76) -16
Wake Forest ST (Previous Week): #79
Win Probability (Previous Week): 70%

#79 WESTERN MICHIGAN (2-2)
Finished #74 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #79 (#88) +9
Western Michigan O (Previous Week): #60 (#64) +4
Western Michigan D (Previous Week): #93 (#100) +7
Western Michigan ST (Previous Week): #126
Postgame win expectancy: 53%

#78 UNC (1-2)
Finished #94 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #78 (#87) +9
UNC O (Previous Week): #86 (#116) +30
UNC D (Previous Week): #76 (#40) -36
UNC ST (Previous Week): #13
Win Probability (Previous Week): 75%

#75 PITT (2-2)
Finished #82 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #75 (#62) -13
PITT O (Previous Week): #40 (#57) +17
PITT D (Previous Week): #95 (#115) +15
PITT ST (Previous Week): #123
Win Probability (Previous Week): 61%

#67 FLORIDA STATE (2-2)
Finished #43 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #67 (#77) +10
Florida State O (Previous Week): #112 (#117) +5
Florida State D (Previous Week): #17 (#23) +6
Florida State ST (Previous Week): #98
Postgame win expectancy: 98%

#40 BC (3-1)
Finished #66 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #40 (#17) -23
BC O (Previous Week): #41 (#17) -5
BC D (Previous Week): #47 (#108) +61
BC ST (Previous Week): #99
Win Probability (Previous Week): 38%

#29 NC STATE (3-0)
Finished #38 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #29 (#49) +20
NC State O (Previous Week): #54 (#58) +4
NC State D (Previous Week): #21 (#46) +25
NC State ST (Previous Week): #118
Win Probability (Previous Week): 43%

#11 NOTRE DAME (4-0)
Finished #13 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #11 (#18) +7
Notre Dame O (Previous Week): #46 (#67) +21
Notre Dame D (Previous Week): #6 (#5) -1
Notre Dame ST (Previous Week): #53
Win Probability (Previous Week): 21%

#3 CLEMSON (4-0)
Finished #8 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #3 (#4) +1
Clemson O (Previous Week): #9 (#9)
Clemson D (Previous Week): #9 (#10) +1
Clemson ST (Previous Week): #52
Win Probability (Previous Week): 7%

 

[DeGrozz]

A nice visualization:

 

[GoSU96]

I'd sign up for 8-2 going into ND.

 

[Chip]

I'd sign up for 8-2 going into ND.

I don't want to lose to NC State though. Semantics, I know. But I want to own the Dome. Trip up on the road, eh, it happens.

 

[qdawgg]

Man, those % for our future opponents look so promising for at least a decent season. At least.

 

[CuseCrew08]

To have a special season we HAVE to beat UNC and Louisville at home, no excuses. I see @Pitt, @Wake, NCST as toss up games. Steal one of ND or BC and we can get to 9 wins. LGO!

 

[orangenauburn]

To have a special season we HAVE to beat UNC and Louisville at home, no excuses. I see @Pitt, @Wake, NCST as toss up games. Steal one of ND or BC and we can get to 9 wins. LGO!

it

6-2 finish with bowl win. 11-2 and top ten