Where do we stand? S&P+ Week 5

[TheCusian]

This pulls from Bill Connelly's S&P+ Rankings. You can read about it here, but:

It can be used to make predictions, similar to the analytics systems Vegas uses. It is, at its heart, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of what college football teams can most consistently do to win football games (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers)

#51 SYRACUSE (4-1)
Finished #88 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #51 (#50) -1
Syracuse O (Previous Week): #61 (#49) -12
Syracuse D (Previous Week): #55 (#61) +6
Syracuse ST (Previous Week): #1 (#2) +1

Our opponents, ranked:

#129 UCONN (1-4)
Finished #119 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #129 (#129)
UCONN O (Previous Week): #88 (#74) -14
UCONN D (Previous Week): #129 (#130) +1
UCONN ST (Previous Week): #98 (#19) -79
Postgame win expectancy: 100%

#91 LOUISVILLE (2-3)
Finished #16 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #91 (#85) -6
Louisville O (Previous Week): #112 (#109) -3
Louisville D (Previous Week): #59 (#57) -2
Louisville ST (Previous Week): #31 (#57) +26
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 78% (79%) -1%

#90 UNC (1-3)
Finished #94 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #90 (#78) -12
UNC O (Previous Week): #100 (#86) -14
UNC D (Previous Week): #76 (#76)
UNC ST (Previous Week): #13 (#13)
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 78% (75%) +3%

#85 PITT (2-3)
Finished #82 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #85 (#75) -10
PITT O (Previous Week): #63 (#40) -23
PITT D (Previous Week): #97 (#95) -2
PITT ST (Previous Week): #127 (#123) -4
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 64% (61%) +3%

#82 WESTERN MICHIGAN (3-2)
Finished #74 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #82 (#79) -3
Western Michigan O (Previous Week): #46 (#60) +14
Western Michigan D (Previous Week): #102 (#93) -9
Western Michigan ST (Previous Week): #129 (#126) -3
Postgame win expectancy: 53%

#72 WAKE FOREST (3-2)
Finished #37 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #72 (#84) +12
Wake Forest O (Previous Week): #64 (#72) +8
Wake Forest D (Previous Week): #84 (#92) +8
Wake Forest ST (Previous Week): #79 (#79)
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 58% (70%) -12%

#70 FLORIDA STATE (3-2)
Finished #43 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #70 (#67) -3
Florida State O (Previous Week): #109 (#112) +3
Florida State D (Previous Week): #33 (#17) -16
Florida State ST (Previous Week): #100 (#98) -2
Postgame win expectancy: 98%

#45 BC (4-1)
Finished #66 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #45 (#40) -5
BC O (Previous Week): #50 (#41) -9
BC D (Previous Week): #47 (#47)
BC ST (Previous Week): #70 (#99) +29
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 40% (38%) +2%

#24 NC STATE (4-0)
Finished #38 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #24 (#29) +5
NC State O (Previous Week): #33 (#54) +21
NC State D (Previous Week): #29 (#21) -8
NC State ST (Previous Week): #109 (#118) +9
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 39% (43%) -4%

#9 NOTRE DAME (5-0)
Finished #13 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #9 (#11) +3
Notre Dame O (Previous Week): #37 (#46) +11
Notre Dame D (Previous Week): #5 (#5)
Notre Dame ST (Previous Week): #53 (#53)
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 20% (21%) -1%

#2 CLEMSON (5-0)
Finished #8 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #2 (#3) +1
Clemson O (Previous Week): #12 (#9) -3
Clemson D (Previous Week): #7 (#9) +2
Clemson ST (Previous Week): #65 (#52) -13
Postgame win expectancy: 9%

 

[qdawgg]

You've read this stuff in depth, not me. We dropped from a rank of 50 to 51, is that a result of just not putting up the numbers on offense and defense we had in the other games?

 

[nzm136]

I’ll take 8-4, with a chance at 9 in a bowl.

 

[sdhall01]

I’ll take 8-4, with a chance at 9 in a bowl.

3 years in? I'd sign up for that any day of the week and twice on Saturday.

 

[TheCusian]

You've read this stuff in depth, not me. We dropped from a rank of 50 to 51, is that a result of just not putting up the numbers on offense and defense we had in the other games?

It’s a bunch of stuff. Our defense kept us in the game, while our crappy second half on O pulled our numbers down. Our recruiting and preseason ranking (how we finished last year) are not great, though each week he fazes more of that out so actual game data counts more.

It’s also who we’ve played and how they perform. FSU and WMU both won - but not convincingly over anybody good. UCONN is ranked 2nd to last and continue to suck, so they are hurting us.

It would be nice to crush Pitt and UNC to move the needle - but it may take an effecient win vs NC State to put us in the top 20.

 

[qdawgg]

It’s a bunch of stuff. Our defense kept us in the game, while our crappy second half on O pulled our numbers down. Our recruiting and preseason ranking (how we finished last year) are not great, though each week he fazes more of that out so actual game data counts more.

It’s also who we’ve played and how they perform. FSU and WMU both won - but not convincingly over anybody good. UCONN is ranked 2nd to last and continue to suck, so they are hurting us.

It would be nice to crush Pitt and UNC to move the needle - but it may take an effecient win vs NC State to put us in the top 20.

Thanks. Interesting way of putting data together. I don't disagree, I just find it interesting to lead most of a game with one of the best teams in the country but drop a spot. Especially when you're dropping from 50 - 51. But I would imagine as the season goes on, if we continue to win we'll end up closer in ranking to where I'm hoping we should be. But we do need to win games, in the very least.

 

[TheCusian]

Thanks. Interesting way of putting data together. I don't disagree, I just find it interesting to lead most of a game with one of the best teams in the country but drop a spot. Especially when you're dropping from 50 - 51. But I would imagine as the season goes on, if we continue to win we'll end up closer in ranking to where I'm hoping we should be. But we do need to win games, in the very least.

Yeah - I don’t pretend to understand it all and don’t understand that particular thing very well at all. It’s interesting for sure. It helps cut through some of the “orange glasses” stuff a bit.

I will say one of of thinking about it is - we did what we were supposed to against the first 4 opponents, but didn’t do more than we were supposed to. Then, those teams basically went on to prove just how bad they were (or just kind of bad in FSU and WMU). If FSU catches fire and we clobber PITT and UNC - that would help.

 

[Millhouse]

not dropping much after playing clemson is a good sign. they did greatly outgain but it could've been worse. turnovers kept us in it which was great but not that predictive.

 

[upperdeck]

going into the last clemson drive the stats were about 350 to 310. too bad given where they started we couldnt shut them down no matter what they did

 

[TheCusian]

not dropping much after playing clemson is a good sign. they did greatly outgain but it could've been worse. turnovers kept us in it which was great but not that predictive.

Yep - our D ranking went up +6. They outgained us, but we kept them under their normal production. They were avg 7.4 a play coming in and we held them to 5.7.

Our 3rd down conversion % is #2 nationally against FBS opponents. We are #24 in defensive success rate (efficiency).

We did a better job stopping big plays vs Clemson and if that continues with our efficiency #'s - we will be in good shape defensively.

Our O is still lacking efficiency. I'm leaning heavier into the "Dungey is awesome, but DeVito will make it really go" narrative.