Where do we stand? S&P+ Week 8

[TheCusian]

Based on S&P+ by Bill Connelly, which you can read about in depth here. It's basically:

It can be used to make predictions, similar to the analytics systems Vegas uses. It is, at its heart, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of what college football teams can most consistently do to win football games (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers)

#130 UCONN (1-6)
Finished #119 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN O (Previous Week): #67 (#81) +14
UCONN D (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN ST (Previous Week): #60 (#107) +47
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 100%

#98 WAKE FOREST (3-4)
Finished #37 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #98 (#89) -9
Wake Forest O (Previous Week): #89 (#76) -13
Wake Forest D (Previous Week): #100 (#94) -6
Wake Forest ST (Previous Week): #86 (#85) -1
Win Probability (Previous Week): 66% (60%) +6%

#97 LOUISVILLE (2-5)
Finished #16 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #97 (#98) +1
Louisville O (Previous Week): #106 (#109) +3
Louisville D (Previous Week): #82 (#86) +4
Louisville ST (Previous Week): #27 (#26) -1
Win Probability (Previous Week): 76% (76%)

#90 UNC (1-5)
Finished #94 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #90 (#90)
UNC O (Previous Week): #101 (#107) +6
UNC D (Previous Week): #65 (#53) -12
UNC ST (Previous Week): #36 (#30) -6
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 84%

#87 PITT (3-4)
Finished #82 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #87 (#82) -5
PITT O (Previous Week): #76 (#77) +1
PITT D (Previous Week): #89 (#89)
PITT ST (Previous Week): #104 (#103) -1
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 16%

#74 WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-2)
Finished #74 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #74 (#80) +6
Western Michigan O (Previous Week): #33 (#37) +4
Western Michigan D (Previous Week): #101 (#105) +4
Western Michigan ST (Previous Week): #129 (#129)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 53%

#57 FLORIDA STATE (4-3)
Finished #43 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #57 (#73) +16
Florida State O (Previous Week): #109 (#116) +7
Florida State D (Previous Week): #21 (#24) +3
Florida State ST (Previous Week): #95 (#96) +1
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 98%

#52 SYRACUSE (5-2)
Finished #88 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #52 (#58) +6
Syracuse O (Previous Week): #49 (#56) +7
Syracuse D (Previous Week): #62 (#57) -5
Syracuse ST (Previous Week): #1 (#1)

#44 BC (5-2)
Finished #66 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #44 (#47) +3
BC O (Previous Week): #57 (#57)
BC D (Previous Week): #40 (#39) -1
BC ST (Previous Week): #46 (#46)
Win Probability (Previous Week): 40% (36%) +4%

#34 NC STATE (5-1)
Finished #38 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #34 (#19) -15
NC State O (Previous Week): #53 (#30) -23
NC State D (Previous Week): #33 (#29) -3
NC State ST (Previous Week): #122 (#124) +2
Win Probability (Previous Week): 47% (35%) +11%

#7 NOTRE DAME (7-0)
Finished #13 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #7 (#10) +3
Notre Dame O (Previous Week): #41 (#45) +4
Notre Dame D (Previous Week): #5 (#4) -1
Notre Dame ST (Previous Week): #48 (#48)
Win Probability (Previous Week): 24% (22%) +2%

#2 CLEMSON (7-0)
Finished #8 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #2 (#2)
Clemson O (Previous Week): #11 (#10) -1
Clemson D (Previous Week): #2 (#5) +3
Clemson ST (Previous Week): #77 (#66) -11
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 9%

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Man, really would like to get to 8 wins.

 

[upperdeck]

we dont even need to play great to get to 9 wins.. just need solid play every game.

 

[TheCusian]

Man, really would like to get to 8 wins.

2% chance we don't win another game.
16% chance of 6 wins.
33% chance of 8 wins.
34% chance of 8 wins.
9% chance of 9 wins.
2% chance we win out.

 

[SUFan44]

Gonna need to pull off a slight upset to get to 8 according to this ranking.

Also can pull for that damn RB from B.C. to pull his hamstring the week before our game. That might help.

 

[TheCusian]

Gonna need to pull off a slight upset to get to 8 according to this ranking.

Also can pull for that damn RB from B.C. to pull his hamstring the week before our game. That might help.

They play:

Miami (39% win prob)
Va Tech (48% win prob)
Clemson (17% win prob)
FSU (51% win prob)

That's typically the way our Nov has looked. No fun. FSU is trending up, too.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

2% chance we don't win another game.
16% chance of 6 wins.
33% chance of 8 wins.
34% chance of 8 wins.
9% chance of 9 wins.
2% chance we win out.

So you're saying +90% chance of bowl eligibility?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

2% chance we don't win another game.
16% chance of 6 wins.
33% chance of 8 wins.
34% chance of 8 wins.
9% chance of 9 wins.
2% chance we win out.

So we have a 2% chance of a losing record, 16% chance of a .500 record, and a 78% chance of a winning record!!

 

[TheCusian]

So you're saying +90% chance of bowl eligibility?

98%

 

[OttoinGrotto]

98%

Yeah, but when I add 16, 33, 34, 9 and 2 I get 94.

So...

 

[TheCusian]

Yeah, but when I add 16, 33, 34, 9 and 2 I get 94.

So...

Ahh - mis-typed one. We have a 15% chance of winning 9.

 

[TheCusian]

There's a lot of reason for optimism in there.

- We're #1 in average field position for offense. And #11 for average field position for defense. Good special teams make a lot of difference here. As does our ability to turn teams over (#10).

- #33 in Rushing S&P+ is really good (we were #72 last year). Our D is not at #101.

- Our pass D is really good at #32.

- Sack rate #17.

- Still great at 3rd and med (#4) long (#2). Not so much on 3rd and short (vs the run) #81.

- On passing downs (defense knows what's coming) we are really explosive at #2.