Which is a better predictor of success at the next level?

[SWC75]

With the talk of MCW possibly being the #1 NBA draft choice if he has a great work-out and seeing Andrew Wiggins, the #1 guy coming out of high school, in the Jordan Classic, I wonder: which means more? Everybody's saying the draft is lousy but that Wiggins will be an All-American wherever he goes. Which means more in terms of predicting success at the next level: being the #1 rated high school guy going to college or being the #1 draft choice going into the NBA?

 

[007]

With the talk of MCW possibly being the #1 NBA draft choice if he has a great work-out and seeing Andrew Wiggins, the #1 guy coming out of high school, in the Jordan Classic, I wonder: which means more? Everybody's saying the draft is lousy but that Wiggins will be an All-American wherever he goes. Which means more in terms of predicting success at the next level: being the #1 rated high school guy going to college or being the #1 draft choice going into the NBA?

Isn't MCW the only one talking about his being the #1 pick?

As for your question, the NBA scouts better hope that being the 1 pick is a much, much, better predictor.

 

[Syracusian]

This seems like it would be right up your alley SWC! I can name several players that were the #1 player coming out of high school and then were the #1 draft pick as well. It would be interesting to compare rankings in high school to see how they translated to placement in the draft and also success in the NBA.

The success of #1 draft picks has been all over the place throughout the years, as has the #1 high school player. So, it seems like a crapshoot!

Edit: One thing is for sure, being the #1 draft pick in the NBA is much more important to your financial well being (at least for a few years!)

 

[Cuse'91]

Isn't MCW the only one talking about his being the #1 pick?

As for your question, the NBA scouts better hope that being the 1 pick is a much, much, better predictor.

Agree, but I would go with only one "much" - the top high school recruit is usually a can't miss... Top 10 or 20 HS is risky, but the absolute number one player is a different story, usually...

 

[007]

Agree, but I would go with only one "much" - the top high school recruit is usually a can't miss... Top 10 or 20 HS is risky, but the absolute number one player is a different story, usually...

Nothing is an absolute. From an NBA scout's perspective, you had better be right 9 out of 10 on #1s.

 

[Madbiker]

Interesting graphic they put up last night during the Jordan game to show how high school player rankings can be way off. Trey Burke was #84 in his high school class according to ESPN.com but will be a top 10 pick and maybe top 5 in this draft. Others shown were Ray Allen at #42 in his class. There were a bunch of others but I forget them now.

 

[jdubs30]

Are you asking in relative terms? I think being the #1 overall HS player will better predict that you are a good college player; as opposed to being the #1 draft pick is to being successful in the NBA.

I think College to NBA is a harder transition than HS to College, at least for the elite player

 

[DeGrozz]

I'm just looking back 10 years. It's a little tricky to compare the recent drafts, because of the high school draft rules, but here is my best shot at comparing the high school no. 1 and the to pick in the NBA draft:

- 2003 LBJ was both, so this is a wash
- 2004 Dwight Howard was both, again a wash
- 2005 was an abomination of a high school class -- this is also when the NBA draft rules changed. I think Josh McRoberts was the number 1 overall player. Bogut and Bargnani were the number 1 picks in 2005 and 2006, both international players, both had better careers than just about any US high schooler in the 2005 class (though they both seemed to peak at a really early stage in their career). The best HS players to come from 2005 seem to be Ellis and Bynum, who are just about the only two from 2005 worth mentioning.
- Greg Oden was #1 in the 2006 high school class and #1 in the 2007 draft
- Michael Beasley was the #1 player in 2007, but Derrick Rose was the #1 player in the 2008 draft. Rose is obviously the better player.
- BJ Mullens was the top player in the 2008 high school class. Griffin was the no. 1 pick the next year. Griffin by a mile.
- John Wall took both top spots for the 2009 high school class.
- the 2010 high school class touted Josh Selby and Harrison Barnes as its top players. Kyrie Irving went number 1 in the draft and looks like an NBA all-star for the foreseeable future. I am not giving up on Barnes in the NBA after a quiet first year, but I doubt he reaches Kyrie's level.
- Anthony Davis was numero Uno all around for 2011's class. The kid will be a star for a long time.

Crazy how many times the experts get it right when it comes to the best player in the high school class. 50% of the No. 1 draft picks were also the best players coming out of high school. Twice we had international players go #1, but they still are doing better than the corresponding HS #1 players. In the years that the HS #1 wasn't a top pick, the NBA seemed to get it right.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Interesting graphic they put up last night during the Jordan game to show how high school player rankings can be way off. Trey Burke was #84 in his high school class according to ESPN.com but will be a top 10 pick and maybe top 5 in this draft. Others shown were Ray Allen at #42 in his class. There were a bunch of others but I forget them now.

Yep. I mentioned this once before. Burke was a 3 star guy. Same with Hardaway Jr. We know about our Warrick's of the world as well.

 

[strumpfasaurus]

Does anybody know if Andy Rautins is the only 1 star recruit to be drafted?

 

[Fly Rodder]

I pay a lot more attention to baseball recruits and the minor leagues than I do to basketball recruiting and the NBA ... but for the most part I think it's fairly similar (though with baseball there are a lot more kids being drafted and playing professionally for a few years). In both cases, kids identified as top 5 in high school or pre-draft are pretty close to being sure things (All-stars are rare, but long productive careers are typically had by top-5 kids. After that, it's a crap shoot. Baseball has a much higher learning curve and 10 times as many kids in their systems so a kid like Brett Gardner (a third round college pick) has time to work through the transition and end up a very productive ML player. Good professional basketball players are identified early-on, but whether or not they can play in the NBA is recognized pretty quickly and there's not much a kid can do to improve on that. I don't know of many kids (and I don't follow NBA as closely as MLB) that toil in Europe and the D-league and end up challenging for an All-star spot.

All of that is pretty long winded way of saying that focusing on the #1 isn't necessarily as interesting as looking as the top-5 versus top-25 say. You could probably pick out a cut-off point in the rankings where the odds of NBA success drop-off precipitously.

 

[jekelish]

Does anybody know if Andy Rautins is the only 1 star recruit to be drafted?

Ever? Not a chance, especially since D3 kids have been drafted before.

 

[orange2win]

Ennis and Wiggins were like two soul mates in that game. Incredible symmetry. Both are suburban Toronto kids and both are good friends. Makes me wonder why SU is not on Wiggins list of schools. Would the staff not have been using Ennis to try and hook him?

Sort of looks like we were/are not too interested.