Whigham's Take

[OrangeXtreme]

Easier to do, I think, in the nfl because college kids do weird things.

In 2018, defense doesn’t win championships, quarterbacks do. NFL, college. All the same, the best teams have great quarterbacks.

In college football, the top-5 passers in terms of efficiency have a starting record of 42-3. They all lead top-10 football teams. The rest of the top-10 in the stat all have their teams at or near the top of its conference.

Between ND & Syracuse, the quarterback position is much more efficient for the fighting Irish. Cuse hasn’t played well vs pass efficient defenses all year & its best games are against NC State and UCONN, State currently ranked 96th in the stat, UCONN last in the country at 129.

ND’s pass defense is ranked 6th in the country and doesn’t give up many big plays. Insert explosiveness. ND’s yards per play averages aren’t much higher than Syracuse’s. 6.0 vs. 5.8.

This leads me to believe that if Syracuse wants to win, its ground game will need to help. RPO action, play action whatever can slightly effect pass defense. Neal, Strickland need to have an effect this week.

On special teams, love Szymt but kicking field goals is losing football. If you average less than 3.5 points on trips inside the 40, a study in 2013 shows you have a little over a 60% chance of losing.

On the other hand, hofrichter is winning Syracuse games. Syracuse has won the field position battle most of the season.

Finally turnover margin, Cuse is 8-2 because they win the FP battle & take the ball away. Best measure of a defense, imo. That and redzone D. Anyway, they’ll need to take the ball away if they want to keep it close. +1 in the turnover margin gives you a 65% of winning. +2, 79%

So we have those, now, considering other variables, if I’m looking for a way Syracuse wins—I’m thinking a pass rush could effect ND’s passer effiecency and contribute to some turnovers. I’d also think a ground game would open Syracuse passing offense & help them become explosive.

Hoffy hasn’t had a bad game yet, and special teams will be key too. Less field goals, more touchdowns though. If you’re looking for Cuse to win, I think it’s best to watch those four major categories and the small variables contributing to each.

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

The keys to this game are pretty simple IMO. 1) Need our pass rush to make Book wish he didn't suit up for this one. Hit him hard and/or make him uncomfortable in the pocket all game. We'll need a similar performance from our pass rush to that of the Clemson game. 2) Assuming we keep ND's passing game in check, we also need to prevent a big running game from ND (i.g., no 200+ yd rushing totals from any of their RBs).

Winning this game will come down to how the D performs more so than offense. Our offense will score some points, but can't expect a huge scoring (50-60 pts) from them. ND's D is too good. Collectively, maybe the best D this offense will face all year.

 

[orange_in_VA]

The keys to this game are pretty simple IMO. 1) Need our pass rush to make Book wish he didn't suit up for this one. Hit him hard and/or make him uncomfortable in the pocket all game. We'll need a similar performance from our pass rush to that of the Clemson game. 2) Assuming we keep ND's passing game in check, we also need to prevent a big running game from ND (i.g., no 200+ yd rushing totals from any of their RBs).

Winning this game will come down to how the D performs more so than offense. Our offense will score some points, but can't expect a huge scoring (50-60 pts) from them. ND's D is too good. Collectively, maybe the best D this offense will face all year.

I mostly agree with this, but we need our offense to be efficient, which it hasn't been. This offense will see it's true potential when our field goal kicker isn't breaking records and leading the country in scoring.

 

[orange_in_VA]

Whigs touched on what I see as the most important improvements on this team this year and what makes us successful. Pass rush, turnovers and special teams. They are masking a lot of bad offense and defense this year.

 

[BVille44]

I think the biggest key is Dungey’s accuracy passing the ball outdoors with some wind. He has to be able to hit the slant route which he struggled with last game and put some velocity on the ball.

 

[upperdeck]

You can see ND winning an 40-20 type game.. I dont see SU winning that way..

if one team gets in the 30s we probably loses. if both teams get over 30 or both teams stay in the 20s
we have as solid chance, if one team is held under 20 we probably lose.

 

[elimunelson]

I think this is gonna be a lower scoring game. I feel 30-27 classic. I think it's gonna be one for the ages too. Feels like the stars are aligning here.

 

[TheCusian]

Great, as always.

I agree that TD are better than FG - but consistency from SMXZFT mean

Whigs touched on what I see as the most important improvements on this team this year and what makes us successful. Pass rush, turnovers and special teams. They are masking a lot of bad offense and defense this year.

This isn’t right.

The pass rush is a part of the defense, so. While TO margin is largely luck - having a really good pass rush is the one way to create some. Special teams helps put the offense and defense into good position - but it doesn’t mask anything.

There are other ways to quantify offensive and defensive improvement - I’ll dig them up later.

 

[orange_in_VA]

Great, as always.

I agree that TD are better than FG - but consistency from SMXZFT mean


This isn’t right.

The pass rush is a part of the defense, so. While TO margin is largely luck - having a really good pass rush is the one way to create some. Special teams helps put the offense and defense into good position - but it doesn’t mask anything.

There are other ways to quantify offensive and defensive improvement - I’ll dig them up later.

I realize the pass rush is a part of the defense and absolutely helps with turnovers.
We are the best team in the country in starting field position per drive. We have a ton of opportunities to score more, but this team ends up settling for a lot of field goals.

Also, I never mentioned that there wasn't improvement on either side of the ball. I've been tracking the stats all season. Dino and his staff have gotten better every year since they arrived on both sides. My only concern with the game this weekend is with efficiency. We need to be highly efficient to beat ND this weekend.

Using 4 different overall efficiency models leaves the averages for each team at ND: #7 and SU: #34. This also takes into consideration our number 1 special teams efficiency which helps our overall ranking. If you only consider offense and defense, it's a pretty large difference.


Offense:
ND - #27
SU - #39

Defense:
ND - #3
SU - #68

ST:
ND - #54
SU - #1

 

[TheCusian]

I realize the pass rush is a part of the defense and absolutely helps with turnovers.
We are the best team in the country in starting field position per drive. We have a ton of opportunities to score more, but this team ends up settling for a lot of field goals.

Also, I never mentioned that there wasn't improvement on either side of the ball. I've been tracking the stats all season. Dino and his staff have gotten better every year since they arrived on both sides. My only concern with the game this weekend is with efficiency. We need to be highly efficient to beat ND this weekend.

Using 4 different overall efficiency models leaves the averages for each team at ND: #7 and SU: #34. This also takes into consideration our number 1 special teams efficiency which helps our overall ranking. If you only consider offense and defense, it's a pretty large difference.


Offense:
ND - #27
SU - #39

Defense:
ND - #3
SU - #68

ST:
ND - #54
SU - #1

Oh, I agree. I was pushing against the idea that those things were masking poor defense and offense. We’ve had moments where we’ve reverted to some bad habits - but on the whole, I think we’ve played well.

 

[orange_in_VA]

Oh, I agree. I was pushing against the idea that those things were masking poor defense and offense. We’ve had moments where we’ve reverted to some bad habits - but on the whole, I think we’ve played well.

That's true. I incorrectly worded my message. I should have said something like helped mask our weaknesses. Overall we are doing pretty well. Using the word "bad" was misplaced. We have lapses at times and being good at the aforementioned things is helping make up for it. I think we keep trending in the right direction next year and it could be an even bigger year than what we are seeing right now.

 

[rrlbees]

My keys to the game are as follows:

1. Score more points than ND.

 

[orange_in_VA]

My keys to the game are as follows:

1. Score more points than ND.

That'll do

 

[tipphill]

either big score win for nd or we win in a close one

 

[leftytg]

A lot may rest on quick of a trigger Dino has in getting Devito in there. I hope to eat these words, but I don't think Dungey can consistently get first downs passing against a decent (or better) pass defense. Both ND and BC have that kind of defense, and I hope Dino is willing to read the game and adjust.

 

[Ish88888]

I think the biggest key is Dungey’s accuracy passing the ball outdoors with some wind. He has to be able to hit the slant route which he struggled with last game and put some velocity on the ball.

I agree, my biggest worry is our skill personel vs their D. We have been cruising along not having played above average secondarys. After Clemson, this will be the first time. Remember, we are still relying on 2 true frosh 2 recievers <5',8'', and Custis who in terms of expected production is week to week.

 

[BVille44]

A lot may rest on quick of a trigger Dino has in getting Devito in there. I hope to eat these words, but I don't think Dungey can consistently get first downs passing against a decent (or better) pass defense. Both ND and BC have that kind of defense, and I hope Dino is willing to read the game and adjust.

Dino knows how much this game means in terms of recruiting so I think he will pull the trigger if Dungey is struggling in the passing game.

 

[RMH44]

A lot may rest on quick of a trigger Dino has in getting Devito in there. I hope to eat these words, but I don't think Dungey can consistently get first downs passing against a decent (or better) pass defense. Both ND and BC have that kind of defense, and I hope Dino is willing to read the game and adjust.

You simply can't help yourself can you?

 

[Ish88888]

A lot may rest on quick of a trigger Dino has in getting Devito in there. I hope to eat these words, but I don't think Dungey can consistently get first downs passing against a decent (or better) pass defense. Both ND and BC have that kind of defense, and I hope Dino is willing to read the game and adjust.

Amazing at this point and after the NCST game that people are playing lut scenarios where TD comes in as the savior. Aint happening wo an injury. TD against this D might not be pretty and I think TD will do huge things here. This team plays behind ED...

 

[CbusCuse]

Amazing at this point and after the NCST game that people are playing lut scenarios where TD comes in as the savior. Aint happening wo an injury. TD against this D might not be pretty and I think TD will do huge things here. This team plays behind ED...

I hope Dino does not feel the same way. Dungey has been an amazing player for us over his carreer and I absolutely love him. He can lead a team, not turn the ball over, make a lot of plays with his feet and sometimes be efficient passing it this year. But i'm not sure Dungey has the consistent passing accuracy and arm strength right now to bring us back from behind. He will surely be the leader if we are ahead or down by no more than 7 points. But I can certainly envision a scenario where Devito is brought in to make our offense more explosive and to bring us back. Dino proved he wasn't afraid to do it against UNC. I think he will do it again if he is certain that is our best chance but he won't do it without good reason.

 

[PhatOrange]

I agree, my biggest worry is our skill personel vs their D. We have been cruising along not having played above average secondarys. After Clemson, this will be the first time. Remember, we are still relying on 2 true frosh 2 recievers <5',8'', and Custis who in terms of expected production is week to week.

on the flip side this will be the most speed ND has seen all year

and the hardest hitting team ND has seen all year.

 

[blizz]

Their secondary is talented and very disciplined. Lea has those guys playing at a high level. That said, I dont think they've quite seen anything like what they're going to get tomorrow. If we can spread them out and challenge them deep and get the safeties to respect the deep ball we can have a very good day.